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9 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Thai industries to partially recover in 2021…but will fail to return to pre-COVID-19 levels


            Under the assumptions that there will be no serious resurgence of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Thailand, that the majority of people in Thailand will receive COVID-19 vaccines in late 2021, and that the domestic political situation will not significantly impede the government’s budgetary disbursements, KResearch views that key industries in Thailand may still recover at different paces, depending on the extent of the impact from COVID-19 and other specific challenges such as technological changes, the trade war, the competition for world technological leadership, and supply glut.
             Preliminarily, KResearch expects that although several key industries will return to positive growth in 2021 due to a low 2020 base, most industries will not return to their pre-COVID-19 growth rates. The impact of COVID-19 on the food and beverage, electronic and electrical appliance, retail and medical industries is moderate to mild (less than 15% contraction in 2020). In 2021, these industries may grow almost on a par with their pre-COVID-19 levels, which would be better than other industries that have been hard hit by COVID-19 such as the hotel and restaurant, automotive, transportation, storage and residential property industries (more than 15% contraction in 2020).    

              The above assessments are an analysis of Thai industry trajectories from a holistic perspective, which are still subject to a great deal of uncertainty, and do not reflect the adjustments made by different businesses to the specific conditions of their industries. While the COVID-19 pandemic is an imminent challenge, looking ahead there are numerous factors that will impact the business environment and challenge the industry, especially the rapidly changing and complex consumer market and technological changes. KResearch hopes that this 2021 industrial outlook analysis will benefit the relevant agencies in analyzing and designing targeted relief measures to help various industries weather this difficult time.

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Econ Digest