Myanmar
has recently announced several requirements for
truck drivers from Thailand: It is now necessary for drivers crossing the
Myanmar border via Chiang Rai’s Mae Sai checkpoint to be replaced with Myanmar
nationals. Furthermore, only six vehicles of any kind bearing Thai license
plates are allowed to cross the border to Tachilek in Myanmar from the Mae Sai checkpoint per day, where normally there are at least 300 vehicles
entering daily. Such vehicles are required to
register with Myanmar’s Road Transport Administration Department and to comply
with the regulations of Shan State’s Road Transport Administration Department,
effective from September 17,
2020. It is expected that such restrictions will directly hurt
Thailand’s cross border exportation to Myanmar via Chiang Rai’s Mai Sai border
checkpoint. During the
first seven months of 2020, such shipments
were valued at THB6.549
billion. Since the volume of Thai shipments to Myanmar is set to decline, there
could be a shortage of numerous goods in Myanmar.
KResearch
believes that due to the importance of border trade for both countries, the
stringent restrictions at Chiang Rai’s Mae Sai border checkpoint will likely be
eased once the COVID-19 pandemic improves. Myanmar may allow more freight
trucks to enter in the future. However, Thailand’s cross-border exports to
Myanmar via Chiang Rai’s Mae Sai checkpoint account for only 13% of the total
cross-border export value to Myanmar. Moreover, such shipments are primarily
necessities; therefore, the restrictions on Myanmar’s border may not
significantly affect Thailand’s cross border exports to Myanmar.
However, because Thailand’s cross-border exports to
Myanmar have been affected by uncertain economic conditions as a result of COVID-19,
Thailand’s cross-border shipments to Myanmar contracted 14.2%YoY to THB51.4
billion during the first seven months of 2020. KResearch deems that Thailand’s
cross border exports to Myanmar do not look promising in 2020 and will likely see
a steeper contraction of at least 10%. Given this, Thailand’s cross-border
exports to Myanmar may fall below THB100 billion for the second consecutive
year in 2020. Nevertheless, close attention must be paid to potential further
contractions of such shipments if Thailand and Myanmar see the need to impose similar
restrictions on other checkpoints, especially at the Mae Sot checkpoint in Tak
and Ranong Customs House in Ranong.
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