27 Jan 2023 International Economy First FOMC meeting of 2023, January 31 – February 1. Fed may slow its policy rate hike by 0.25% amid easing inflation. However, future US policy rate will chiefly hinge on inflation and other economic data (Business Brief No.3991) คะแนนเฉลี่ย คะแนนเฉลี่ย 5 stars 4 stars 3 stars 2 stars 1 star At the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the year, January 31 – February 1, 2023, KResearch expects that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will slow its policy rate hike by 0.25 percent to 4.50-4.75 percent as inflation has steadily declined. Headline inflation in the US fell for the sixth consecutive month in December 2022 to 6.5 percent, the lowest since October 2021, though it remained relatively high. Meanwhile, the US labor market is still robust, meaning that the Fed may continue to hike its policy rate, going forward. However, it may consider raising its policy rate at a slower pace by 0.25 percent at the upcoming FOMC meeting amid signs of easing inflation. Looking ahead, the Fed's policy rate will hinge on inflation and other economic data. KResearch is of the view that the US economy in 2023, especially during 1H23, will feel the pinch of the Fed's continuing policy rate hikes from the previous years, and the overall U.S. economy may record static growth (GDP growth at 0 percent), prompting the Fed to put more weight on the economic risk, going forward. Meanwhile, although the US inflation rate remains well above the Fed’s target of 2.0 percent, it is expected to gradually decline this year as commodity prices will likely be pressured by an anticipated global economic slowdown. Even though a better outlook towards the Chinese economy may have caused commodity prices to increase somewhat, they are not expected to surge as seen in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. Under such scenario, we at KResearch view that the Fed may raise its policy rate only once more at its March 2023 meeting, bringing the Fed Funds rate to a record high of around 5 percent. The Fed may maintain its policy interest at that level throughout 2023. However, if U.S. inflation rate remains high and does not decline as much as it should while the US labor market powers ahead, the Fed may need to raise its policy rate above 5.0 percent. View full article Login / Register Or Enter the code from the poll Annotation This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. Trustworthy, but the company can not authenticate. reliability The information may be changed at any time without prior notice. Data users need to be careful about the use of information. The Company will not be liable to any user or person for any damages arising from such use. The information in this report does not constitute an offer. Or advice on business decisions Anyhow. International Economy Global economyFed Related Analysis View all 14 Mar 2018 International Economy Thailand must brace for trade disputes between the US, EU and China, etc. (Current Issue No. 2905) The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist measures against Chinese products valued at around USD60 billion. This direction will likely add significant pressure to global trade, thus, KResearch views that all eyes should be closely kept on negotiations between the US and EU, both being among the largest economies in the world. Details on those negotiations are expected to be released before the relevant ‘safeguard tariffs’ on steel and aluminum become effective at the end of next week. If the EU and China are exempted from these new tariffs, prevailing anxiety will ease. But to the contrary, without such exemptions, China and the EU may opt to implement their own trade protectionist measures against the US, as well. This situation would likely escalate into further actions and reactions, incurring significant damage to trade that could spill over to other regions of the world.... 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Read more 0 KB 0 KB 26 Jan 2018 International Economy Fed Meeting Expected to Maintain Rate Leaving Room for Increasing Rate Later (Business Brief No.3725) KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain their policy rate at 1.25-1.50 percent during their first round of meeting o... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 26 Dec 2017 International Economy The Philippines: Rising Market of ASEAN (Current Issue No. 2887 Full Ed.) Thai exports to ASEAN-5 (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei) account for 59.3 percent of our total exports to the entire AS... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 19 Dec 2017 International Economy Chinese Economy Continues Momentum to Yearend Growth next year inches toward balance, Focus on Reforms (Business Brief No.3719) China's latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic eco... Read more 0 KB 0 KB View all