October Exports registered an unexpected dip of 8.11 percent YoY — a worst performance in four years. The market previously projected a drop of 6.95 percent YoY, falling further from the (-)5.51 percent YoY noted for September. Exclusive of gold shipments, which skyrocketed 469.9 percent YoY, the October export value would plunge 9.6 percent YoY.
With exports down for the tenth straight month since January, the overall 10-month performance was at (-)5.32 percent YoY. Over the entirety of 2015, KResearch expects that the outlook will remain unencouraging for exports, thus the shipment value over the remainder of 2015 will clearly be limited. These negative prospects add to possibility that Thai outbound trade will suffer a deep contraction of over 5 percent for the year, as seen in our base-case projection.
The situation for November and December will likely get worse in a free-fall due to a downward price trend over-year. To cap it all, economic sentiment in major export markets – China, Japan, the EU and the five original ASEAN members – will perhaps not improve significantly any time soon.
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