Despite sluggishness due to a political standoff, November 2013 Headline Inflation was recorded at 1.92 percent YoY, rising for the second consecutive month with October's 1.46 percent YoY, on a low 2012 base. November's Core Inflation climbed to 0.85 percent YoY, against 0.71 percent YoY in the preceding month.
The Consumer Price Index inched up marginally by 0.09 percent MoM on account that rising prepared food and fuel prices, as well as over 3.0-percent depreciation in the Baht were counterbalanced somewhat by falling prices of fresh foods, e.g., meat, eggs, dairy products and fruit/vegetables, which had seen an offbeat rise during October as a result of flooding in many areas, as well as on the occasion of the Vegetarian Festival.
Looking ahead toward the 2014 inflation outlook, KResearch expects that Headline Inflation rates may remain steady, or edge up a little to a 2.2-2.6-percent YoY in line with increasing business costs that are projected to average 2.2 percent YoY over 2013. Core Inflation will probably rise to 1.8 percent, or range between 1.4-2.2 percent YoY, versus our 2013 estimate of 1.0 percent YoY. However, those rates may shift into a lower gear due to ongoing political turmoil having had a negative impact on consumption and our economic recovery prospects. This implies that the BOT will likely be able to keep their key policy rate at eased levels (currently at 2.25 percent), throughout the first half of 2014.
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