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26 May 2025

Thai Economy

Thai exports in April 2025 continued to grow at 10.2% YoY, but they will likely face increased risk in 2H25 (Business Brief No.4159 Full Ed.)

คะแนนเฉลี่ย
  • Thai exports in April 2025 continued to grow at 10.2 percent YoY, though slower than the previous quarter, supported by accelerated shipments. However, the expansion was driven by just a few key products: 1) computers and parts, including HDDs; 2) ICs; and 3) unwrought gold. Excluding these three items, Thai exports in April grew by less than 1 percent.
  • Thai exports in May-June are expected to grow at a slower pace, even though the US has suspended its tariff hike for 90 days. As a result, Thailand’s 2Q25 exports may expand by less than 10 percent due to the front-loading of shipments in previous months and the fact that the US began imposing an additional 10-percent baseline tariff on Thai products starting in April. Meanwhile, Thailand-US trade talks remain uncertain.
  • Thai exports in 2H25 may face a sharp contraction if the US imposes a higher tariff hike on Thailand compared to its competitors. Given this, KResearch maintains its full-year 2025 export growth forecast for Thailand at (-) 0.5 percent.

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Thai Economy