MPC meeting, October 8: Policy rate kept steady at 1.50% in a split vote as expected; year-end forecast remains at 1.25% (Business Brief No.4200 Full Ed.)

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At its meeting on October 8, 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5 to 2 to maintain the policy rate at 1.50 percent, in line with KResearch’s earlier projection. Most committee members adopted a wait-and-see stance, preferring to assess the impact of recent rate cuts, while two members voted to lower the policy rate by 0.25 percent to support the economy and ease debt burdens.
The statement issued this round differs from the previous one, as it mentions the risk of deflation as a matter that warrants monitoring. Meanwhile, following the Baht’s recent depreciation, the MPC appeared less concerned about exchange rate risks.
KResearch maintains its forecast for a policy rate trim in the December meeting, down to 1.25 percent, though it is also possible that the MPC will keep the rate unchanged at its final meeting of the year. According to the MPC’s communication from this meeting, most committee members place importance on the timing of future rate cuts, which will depend largely on incoming economic data.

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