25 Nov 2019
Trading
The value of Thai exports reached USD20,757.78 million in October 2019, shrinking 4.54 percent YoY. As a result, 10M19 shipments contracted at a faster pace than that seen during 9M19 of 2.35 percent YoY. The shrinkage in October exports was due to a number of factors, including persistent sluggishness seen in the global economy, the US-China trade dispute and volatility in the value of Thai gold exports, which reverted to a contraction of 22.24 percent YoY after posting high growth, thus serving as an export driver over the past 2-3 months. It was also caused by a high base of 2018 global crude oil prices, which caused the value of our oil-related exports to decline. Excluding the value of gold and oil-related product exports, Thai shipments contracted 1.2 percent YoY in October 2019.... Read more
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30 Oct 2019
The US, October 25, 2019, announced the suspension of trade preferences for Thailand under the Generalized System of Preference (GSP), covering 573 items and costing approximately USD1.3 billion, effective over the next six months or April 25, 2020. Items that will no longer be eligible for GSP benefits account for one-third of Thailand’s GSP trade, which totaled USD4.3 billion in 2018. Of the top 30 items (in order of the 8-digit HS Code) exported to the US (which accounted for 53.2 percent of Thailand’s total export value to the US in 2018), only 4 items are eligible for GSP. Therefore, even if some of the 573 items are to be deprived of GSP benefits, Thailand’s outward trade overall to the US will barely be affected.... Read more
21 Oct 2019
Thai exports in September fell from the previous month, lower than the consensus of the analysts. The lackluster performance is in line with exports of other countries in the region which were affected by the worse-than-expected global economy and the prolonged trade war between the US and China. Outbound shipments from Thailand in September 2019 declined by 1.4 percent YoY. Although the figure is better than a 4-percent drop in the previous month, it is worse than the market consensus. In September, the value of main Thai farm exports such as rice, rubber and tapioca products contracted at a double-digit rate, dragging on the overall Thai outbound shipments. At the same time, the Thai industrial exports in September bounced back to positive territory, increasing 0.2 percent, driven by the shipments of vehicles, auto parts and components, electrical appliances and gold which continued to expand. Excluding gold consignments, the Thai exports would have contracted 2.8 percent YoY.... Read more
21 Aug 2019
Surging gold exports for the second consecutive month helped Thai shipments overall to resume growth for the first time in five months in July 2019. The value of July shipments came in at USD21,205 million, increasing 4.28 percent YoY, driven partly by skyrocketing gold exports for the second consecutive month at 406.92 percent YoY as investors globally increased their holdings of gold, which is considered as a safe haven asset after the global economy experienced heightened risks stemming from the US-Iran geopolitical conflict and unresolved US-China trade dispute. Excluding gold exports, Thailand’s outward trade overall contracted 0.4 percent YoY in July 2019, led by shipments to ASEAN (9) and the EU while exports to major key trade partners, such as Japan, China and the US, reverted to high growth.... Read more
14 Aug 2019
Hong Kong’s protests have escalated to the shutdown of Hong Kong international airport, shaking the reputation of one of the Asian financial hubs. Air transportation for passenger and cargo is disrupted. KResearch views that since the volume of Thailand’s outbound shipments to Hong Kong is small; Hong Kong’s demonstrations are unlikely to have significant impacts on the air cargo of Thai goods’ shipment.... Read more
22 Jul 2019
Skyrocketing gold exports supported Thai shipments to shrink at a slower pace in June 2019. Thailand’s June outward trade reached USD21,409.3 million, representing a contraction for the fourth consecutive month at 2.15 percent YoY. The shrinkage, however, was slower than those reported during the preceding three months due partly to the 317.4 percent YoY surge in gold exports. Excluding gold shipments, Thai exports overall contracted 8.7 percent YoY, led largely by major export categories to all key markets.... Read more
30 May 2019
The US Department of Treasury issued the report on macroeconomic and foreign exchange policies of the US’ major trade partners on May 28, 2019, which is about a month behind the original schedule. The report does not specifically label any country as a currency manipulator in order to bolster advantages of the US in trade. However, the US has revised the criteria/conditions of the report, resulting in changes on two important issues: 1) the number of the US’ trade partners that has been included in the assessment increases to 21 countries, compared to 12 countries before; and, 2) the criteria on current trade surplus have been tightened. Thailand, however, has not been added to the US Monitoring List as previously feared. ... Read more
22 Feb 2019
The slowing global economy, impacts of the US tariff hikes on Chinese imports, a cyclical downturn in electronic products, low global crude oil prices and the high base of 2018 all pressured Thai exports to shrink for the third consecutive month at 5.65 percent YoY in January 2019. Shipments of other Asian countries, including Singapore, Japan and South Korea, also reported sharp contractions during this period.... Read more
12 Feb 2019
Thai exports in 2018 rose 6.7 percent YoY, driven mainly by commodity prices. Nonetheless, Thai export growth was significantly lower than those of our neighboring countries. Traditionally, intermediate goods accounted for a majority of the entire Thai export structure, showing that connectivity with value chains in different countries is important for Thai trade. Nonetheless, the exports of intermediate goods from Thailand have shown signs of slowdown and declining share in the total export structure. However, the share of Thai finished products increased. At the same time, the exports of intermediate goods from Vietnam and the Philippines rose at the expense of the market share of Thai exports, especially electronics. This trend shows Thailand’s diminishing competitive edge and less important role in the supply chain of the electronic industry. If the trend continues, it will hurt Thailand’s ability to reap profits from the electronic industry, which has promising growth prospects in the future. ... Read more
21 Nov 2018
Thai exports in the first 10 months expanded 8.2 percent YoY, driven by favorable expansion of auto products and parts and equipment, in line with steady global economic recovery. In addition, petroleum-related products rose due partly to higher crude oil prices in 2018 when compared to the levels in 2017. Moreover, the surge is a result of an acceleration of Thai exports to China for manufacturing and exporting to the US before the enforcement of US punitive tariffs against Chinese goods. KResearch views that, typically, Thai exports in October and November are high during the year-end season including Thanksgiving, Christmas and the New Year’s holidays. Therefore, an average monthly value of Thai exports in the remaining two months of 2018 should rise close to or be slightly higher than October’s figure of USD21,735 million, possibly pushing the Thai export value for the whole of 2018 to nearly 8.0 percent.... Read more
21 Sep 2018
The value of Thailand’s outward trade reached THB22.794 billion for August, representing a new record high. However, the August export growth grew at a slower pace at 6.7 percent YoY, due partly to a high 2017 base and 66.6 percent contraction in gold shipments. If the value of gold exports was excluded, our August shipments grew 10.3 percent YoY. Factors contributing to favorable export growth over the past 18 straight months include the upturn in global crude oil prices. In August, global crude oil prices were substantially higher than August 2017. In addition, Thai car, accessories and auto-parts shipments to Vietnam reverted to high growth. Our agricultural exports also improved, including rice and cassava products, because their shipment volume contracted less. ... Read more
22 Aug 2018
Thai outbound shipments to the US and China, however, slowed in July 2018 amid an ongoing trade war between the US and China. The value of Thai exports to the US contracted for the first time in 21 months at 1.9 percent YoY due to a decline in exports of machinery, electronic parts, instant noodles and ready-to-eat food. Thai exports to China grew at a slower pace to 3.6 percent YoY due to a drop in shipments of agricultural/agro-industrial products, timber products and passenger cars.... Read more
20 Jul 2018
Overall, Thai outbound shipments in 1H18 rose 11.0 percent over year. The growth is attributed mainly to the sustained momentum of economic recovery and the cyclical uptrend of electronic products, which are also expected to drive Thai exports in 2H18. The expansion rate in 2H18 however is expected to proceed at a slower rate at 6.8 percent or an average monthly export value of USD21.939 billion. The deceleration is attributable to the higher base last year, coupled with the fact that prices of many commodities are likely to stay at similar levels to those registered in the same period last year.... Read more