22 Jul 2019
Trading
Skyrocketing gold exports supported Thai shipments to shrink at a slower pace in June 2019. Thailand’s June outward trade reached USD21,409.3 million, representing a contraction for the fourth consecutive month at 2.15 percent YoY. The shrinkage, however, was slower than those reported during the preceding three months due partly to the 317.4 percent YoY surge in gold exports. Excluding gold shipments, Thai exports overall contracted 8.7 percent YoY, led largely by major export categories to all key markets.... Read more
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30 May 2019
The US Department of Treasury issued the report on macroeconomic and foreign exchange policies of the US’ major trade partners on May 28, 2019, which is about a month behind the original schedule. The report does not specifically label any country as a currency manipulator in order to bolster advantages of the US in trade. However, the US has revised the criteria/conditions of the report, resulting in changes on two important issues: 1) the number of the US’ trade partners that has been included in the assessment increases to 21 countries, compared to 12 countries before; and, 2) the criteria on current trade surplus have been tightened. Thailand, however, has not been added to the US Monitoring List as previously feared. ... Read more
22 Feb 2019
The slowing global economy, impacts of the US tariff hikes on Chinese imports, a cyclical downturn in electronic products, low global crude oil prices and the high base of 2018 all pressured Thai exports to shrink for the third consecutive month at 5.65 percent YoY in January 2019. Shipments of other Asian countries, including Singapore, Japan and South Korea, also reported sharp contractions during this period.... Read more
12 Feb 2019
Thai exports in 2018 rose 6.7 percent YoY, driven mainly by commodity prices. Nonetheless, Thai export growth was significantly lower than those of our neighboring countries. Traditionally, intermediate goods accounted for a majority of the entire Thai export structure, showing that connectivity with value chains in different countries is important for Thai trade. Nonetheless, the exports of intermediate goods from Thailand have shown signs of slowdown and declining share in the total export structure. However, the share of Thai finished products increased. At the same time, the exports of intermediate goods from Vietnam and the Philippines rose at the expense of the market share of Thai exports, especially electronics. This trend shows Thailand’s diminishing competitive edge and less important role in the supply chain of the electronic industry. If the trend continues, it will hurt Thailand’s ability to reap profits from the electronic industry, which has promising growth prospects in the future. ... Read more
21 Nov 2018
Thai exports in the first 10 months expanded 8.2 percent YoY, driven by favorable expansion of auto products and parts and equipment, in line with steady global economic recovery. In addition, petroleum-related products rose due partly to higher crude oil prices in 2018 when compared to the levels in 2017. Moreover, the surge is a result of an acceleration of Thai exports to China for manufacturing and exporting to the US before the enforcement of US punitive tariffs against Chinese goods. KResearch views that, typically, Thai exports in October and November are high during the year-end season including Thanksgiving, Christmas and the New Year’s holidays. Therefore, an average monthly value of Thai exports in the remaining two months of 2018 should rise close to or be slightly higher than October’s figure of USD21,735 million, possibly pushing the Thai export value for the whole of 2018 to nearly 8.0 percent.... Read more
21 Sep 2018
The value of Thailand’s outward trade reached THB22.794 billion for August, representing a new record high. However, the August export growth grew at a slower pace at 6.7 percent YoY, due partly to a high 2017 base and 66.6 percent contraction in gold shipments. If the value of gold exports was excluded, our August shipments grew 10.3 percent YoY. Factors contributing to favorable export growth over the past 18 straight months include the upturn in global crude oil prices. In August, global crude oil prices were substantially higher than August 2017. In addition, Thai car, accessories and auto-parts shipments to Vietnam reverted to high growth. Our agricultural exports also improved, including rice and cassava products, because their shipment volume contracted less. ... Read more
22 Aug 2018
Thai outbound shipments to the US and China, however, slowed in July 2018 amid an ongoing trade war between the US and China. The value of Thai exports to the US contracted for the first time in 21 months at 1.9 percent YoY due to a decline in exports of machinery, electronic parts, instant noodles and ready-to-eat food. Thai exports to China grew at a slower pace to 3.6 percent YoY due to a drop in shipments of agricultural/agro-industrial products, timber products and passenger cars.... Read more
20 Jul 2018
Overall, Thai outbound shipments in 1H18 rose 11.0 percent over year. The growth is attributed mainly to the sustained momentum of economic recovery and the cyclical uptrend of electronic products, which are also expected to drive Thai exports in 2H18. The expansion rate in 2H18 however is expected to proceed at a slower rate at 6.8 percent or an average monthly export value of USD21.939 billion. The deceleration is attributable to the higher base last year, coupled with the fact that prices of many commodities are likely to stay at similar levels to those registered in the same period last year.... Read more