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10 Sep 2020

International Economy

Drafting of the UK’s Internal Market Bill set to trigger no-deal Brexit by the end of 2020 (Current Issue No.3133)

Ever since the results of the EU Referendum on June 23, 2016, led to the planned withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, the event that all parties concerned have hoped for is a negotiation to finalize the economic and trade relations between the UK and the EU going forward. However, after the revelation of the referendum, the UK under the leadership of Prime Minister Teresa May announced the implementation of Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon in March 2016 to formally pave the way for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. However, the road to negotiations was strife-torn, and the UK went through several political trials which culminated in the change of premiership to Boris Johnson, who promised sufficient support in the UK Parliament to exercise the Withdrawal Agreement, which was delayed to January 2020 from its planned enactment in late 2019. Nevertheless, it is clear that, while four years have passed, the future relationship between the UK and the EU remains ill-defined....Read more

2 Sep 2020

International Economy

Fed’s flexible inflation policy reinvigorates the US capital market but may produce volatility for financial markets in the future once inflation returns (Business Brief No.3882)

Mr. Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve chairman, announced a major monetary policy shift at the latest Jackson Hole conference (August 27, 2020). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reached a unanimous decision in approving longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy adjustment. The shift to flexible average inflation targeting from the original fixed inflation targeting is meant to increase the flexibility of implementing monetary policy, ...Read more

28 Aug 2020

Thai Economy

KResearch forecasts the Thai economy may see a U-shaped recovery with GDP shrinking by 10 percent

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) views that the Thai economy may have seen its trough in the second quarter on a QoQ basis. GDP for 2020 is projected to see a 10-percent contraction. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is likely to show a U-shaped recovery compared to the same period of last year. The food and beverage, electrical appliance, hotel and restaurant sectors are still cause for concern....Read more

แนวโน้มธุรกิจ

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22 Sep 2020

Trading

คุมเข้มพรมแดนเมียนมากระทบค้าชายแดนระยะสั้น แต่ COVID-19 ทำให้การส่งออกชายแดนไทยไปเมียนมาปี 2563 ต่ำกว่า 1 แสนล้านบาท (กระแสทรรศน์ ฉบับที่ 3138)

การที่ทางการเมียนมาออกประกาศจำกัดจำนวนรถขนส่งสินค้าและกำหนดให้ต้องเปลี่ยนมาใช้คนขับรถชาวเมียนมาเท่านั้นเป็นอุปสรรคสำคัญต่อการขนส่งสินค้าข้ามแดนบริเวณด่านแม่สาย จ.เชียงราย ที่เมียนมาอนุญาตให้รถขนส่งสินค้าเข้าประเทศได้วันละ 6 คัน มีผลตั้งแต่ 17 กันยายน 2563 ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย มองว่า มาตรการดังกล่าวจะทำให้การส่งออกของไทยชะงักงันในระยะสั้น เนื่องจากทั้งสองฝ่ายต่างต้องพึ่งพาการค้าระหว่างกัน ซึ่งถ้าหากสถานการณ์ COVID-19 คลี่คลาย มาตรการคุมเข้มระหว่างพรมแดนคงผ่อนปรนลงได้ในระยะอันใกล้ โดยในปัจจุบันมูลค่าการส่งออกของไทยผ่านด่านนี้มีมูลค่า 6,549 ล้านบาท คิดเป็นสัดส่วนร้อยละ 13 ของการส่งออกชายแดนไทยไปเมียนมา สินค้าสำคัญของไทยที่อาจได้รับผลกระทบจากความล่าช้าในการขนส่งผ่านช่องทางนี้ ได้แก่ สินค้าเพื่อการก่อสร้าง น้ำมัน และสินค้าอุปโภคบริโภค ...Read more

18 Sep 2020

Industry

Eco-friendly food and beverage packaging market may reach THB13-16 billion in 2025 (Current Issue No.3137)

The packaging waste crisis is worsening in line with an increase in consumption, the growth of convenience food and the massive expansion of food delivery services during the period of semi-lockdown measures to counter the spread of COVID-19. More than half of all packaging waste comes from food and beverages– a majority of which is plastic packaging which is not properly sorted or disposed of. This situation shows that Thailand is in dire need of adjusting its production and encouraging consumers to reduce packaging waste. At the same time, an overhaul of the waste management system would likely help eco-friendly packaging to grab a larger share of the market....Read more

17 Sep 2020

Services

Cross-Border Data Flows: Helping Thailand Attract Investment during the Digital Era, but Efforts Must Be Accelerated to Find Partners (Current Issue No.3136)

Presently, cross-border data flows are imperative for business growth and global trade in the digital economy era. Business organizations now view that they have to rely on cross-border data flows in order to better understand market conditions and customers, as well as for international trade and supply chain management. However, rapid transmission of cross-border data in line with thriving internet services has triggered concern in many countries about personal data and national security violations. Given this, they have begun to introduce personal data protection laws, including controls on cross-border personal data outflows by invariably refusing the transmission of personal data to other countries with inferior personal data protection standards. ...Read more

ตลาดการเงินและสถาบันการเงิน

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18 Sep 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened while the SET fluctuated but remained positive over-week

The Baht strengthened further in line with the Yuan and other regional currencies, supported by news regarding the development of COVID-19 vaccines. Meanwhile, the US dollar faced sell-offs after the Fed signaled an easing monetary policy stance and vowed to keep low interest rates for a longer period. The US dollar was also pressured by weak US economic data (i.e. an unexpected fall in housing starts in August). A stronger Baht was also in line with net foreign bond buying orders. ...Read more

11 Sep 2020

Financial Institutions

Understanding THOR … New Thai Reference Rate (Business Brief No.3883)

Preparedness for a new context in the financial world resulting from permanent cessation of the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) as an interest rate benchmark for financial transactions is an important mission of financial regulatory authorities in many countries. For Thailand, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) began promoting the Thai Overnight Repurchase Rate (THOR) in April 2020, representing an important milestone for the development of an overnight repurchase reference rate for borrowing in Thai Baht. The move is consistent with other countries, such as the US, which has developed the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) to potentially be used as a US Dollar interest rate benchmark after LIBOR discontinuation....Read more

3 Sep 2020

Financial Markets

The Baht fell, while the SET dropped on profit-taking before long holidays

The Baht weakened against the US dollar. It hit a 1-week low of THB31.45/USD before long holidays. The Baht fell along with net foreign stock selling orders, while the US dollar rose on stronger-than-expected US ISM and PMI manufacturing surveys. The Baht sentiment was also weighed down by concerns about domestic political and COVID-19 situations....Read more