15 Jan 2019
Greater Bangkok was last hit by the high level of hazardous dust particles at the end of 2017 through to the beginning of 2018. Air pollution blanketed capital again in January 2019, with the prospect of prolonged unhealthy air quality levels . This problem and the impacts of global warming or climate change are important issues that warrant close monitoring. Although it is relatively difficult to assess their impacts on the Thai economy, we at KResearch have attempted to do so, based on a number of assumptions,...Read more
11 Jan 2019
• The KR-ECI conducted nationwide rose to 46.0 percent in December 2018 because some Thai households got extra income while the cost of living was declining in line with raw food prices and energy costs.
• The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased to 47.6 in December because households spent less following the year-end festive season.
• KResearch views that there will be many factors affecting the cost of living of Thai households during 1Q19, including possible declines in agricultural supplies due to the effects of El Niño, hikes in public bus fare and electricity charge, plus clearer political outlook that may reinvigorate domestic spending.
20 Dec 2018
KResearch maintains our estimate of Headline Inflation in 2018 at 1.1 percent, compared to the 0.7-percent pace of 2017, as a result of rising energy prices and housing rents amid contracting prices of fresh food following a large quantity of supplies in the market....Read more
10 Jan 2019
In 2019, KResearch views that the government’s agricultural assistance policies will be crucial for the farm sector. The government’s ongoing farm support measures which follow up on the projects implemented in the previous year, especially the short-term ones, including direct subsidy and income support for farmers will be key factors to stabilize farm prices in 2019 and shore up farm income. Hence, farm income in 2019 is likely to remain close to the level in 2018 as it is expected to contract slightly by 0.4-0.8 percent, mainly due to a slump in prices....Read more
26 Dec 2018
We at KResearch expect that Thai car exports will reach approximately 1.15-1.18 million units in 2019, increasing slightly by 1-4 percent over the 1.14 million units projected for 2018, due to a number of downside risks. These include volatile global trade that may dent purchasing power in our export markets, uncertainty foreseen in forex and interest rates, plus the EU’s new directives, aimed at controlling the number of cars emitting carbon dioxide. Moreover, many car makers have relocated production closer to potential markets in Europe and North America. However, there are several factors that may support our car exports, including the recovery in the Middle East market due to rising oil prices, positive responses from many markets toward our new pickup models and the fact that Thailand has been able to resume car exports to Vietnam after problems related to car import controls have eased....Read more
Thai hard disk drive (HDD) exports in 2019 are expected to continue growing, driven by a boom in computer HDD exports. KResearch estimates that overall HDD exports in 2019 will reach around 252 million-262 million units, increasing between 3.6 and 7.8 percent when compared to 2018, equivalent to USD12,576 million-USD13,089 million, up 0.9-5.0 percent over-year. The strong export performance is attributed to the global computer market recovery, the consolidation of production bases from Malaysia to Thailand, and the benefits that Thai exporters gain from the ongoing trade war between the US and China....Read more
9 Nov 2018
The Bank of Thailand has announced the criteria to supervise housing loans by adjusting certain details in the Consultation Paper and postponed the effective date to April 1, next year (from the initial schedule of January 2019). The new requirement will not cover purchase and sale contracts or down payments made prior to October 15, 2018, to provide some time for all parties to adjust to the new measures. The exemption should ease the pressure on the property market and housing loans approved by financial institutions and cushion any effects on prospective buyers or those who have already made down payments....Read more
10 Oct 2018
Government policy to expand the supervision of the providers of auto-for-cash loans to be approved by the Bank of Thailand and Ministry of Finance is an important step toward more extensive supervisory scope with respect to financial service providers. With a well-defined, transparent business framework and a justifiable interest rate structure, this direction will tighten the protection of retail service users, low-income earners and self-employed persons who do not have proper access to financial institutions in the system...Read more
4 Oct 2018
The Bank of Thailand has planned to issue macro-prudential measures to control speculation in the property market, where the measures are expected to set the loan-to-value (LTV) for the second home or other specific requirements to ensure debt servicing ability of the borrowers. KResearch views that the measures will impact the property developers’ business planning in terms of their marketing and will prompt them to take a more cautious approach for their product launch, especially when the property market is now facing an oversupply of unsold property projects and a challenge from the anticipated higher financial costs amid the cyclical uptrend of Thai interest rates....Read more