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17 Jan 2020

International Economy

China's economic growth in 2019 records a 29-year low… weak momentum to continue in 2020 (Business Brief No.3844)

China’s economy, in 4Q19, slowed from the previous quarter to grow 6.0 percent YoY, driven by positive factors from the latest development of the US trade conflict with China. The partial agreement was attributed to the turnaround of China’s export and manufacturing sectors in 4Q19 with acceleration of exports after the US had hinted at delaying tariff imposition and resuming talks with China. Nonetheless, overall China’s economic indicators in 2019 declined significantly from the figures in 2018. China’s economy grew 6.1 percent in 2019, which was a substantial drop from the 6.6 percent growth in 2018. The positive economic figures in 4Q19 were pushed mainly by short-term factors and a low base. The stimulus measures somewhat sustained the growth in 2019 amid a fragile domestic economy. ...Read more

16 Jan 2020

International Economy

Eyeing US-China Phase 1 Trade Deal…Terms of Trade Pact Will Likely Be Dictated by US Politics (Current Issue No.3072)

The US-China phase 1 trade pact was officially inked on January 15, 2020, lifting hopes that their 2-year tensions could ease. However, the US and China will continue to experience higher tariffs, in particular China, as some of its exports to US are still subject to additional tariffs at the rate of 7.5 percent despite the US decision to reduce tariffs on Chinese imports worth USD120 billion while other Chinese imports worth USD250 billion are still subject to tariffs at the rate of 25 percent in 2020. ...Read more

6 Jan 2020

International Economy

Monetary policy facing constraints… amid a recent jump in oil prices due to mounting US-Iran conflicts (Business Brief No.3842)

The US-Iran tensions have ramped up after General Qasem Soleimani, the Iran’s top commander, was killed in Baghdad on January 3, 2020, shooting up the international benchmark Brent crude on January 6, 2020 by 7 percent as compared to the level registered at the end of 2019. This conflict is being closely monitored and unlikely to end soon. The extent of the impact on Thailand will depend on the level of oil price, and how long it will stay at such a high level. Based on our preliminary projections, if the Dubai crude oil price stays at USD80 per barrel for six months, it will affect Thailand’s inflation by 0.75 percentage points from the base case, pushing the headline inflation to 1.15-1.65 percent and cutting the country’s GDP by 0.08 percent. ...Read more

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17 Jan 2020

Agriculture

Drought Crisis Likely in 2020…Initial Economic Costs Estimated at about THB17-19 Billion (Current Issue No.3074)

Drought has arrived earlier than the previous year in 2020 and it is expected to be prolonged because water levels at dams across the country have declined 33.1 percent YoY. Such water levels are more critical than those seen during the severe drought reported in 2015....Read more

7 Jan 2020

Industry

The first-phase MRO at U-Tapao will almost double growth of Thailand’s aviation maintenance and repair market; Thailand should focus on wide-body aircraft to avoid competition with other main competitors in ASEAN (Current Issue No.3069)

Thailand is one of the aviation hubs in the Asia Pacific region, which is expected to experience a rising demand for aviation maintenance and repair services in the future. The future outlook has become clearer after a cooperative agreement for a Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facility at U-Tapao is expected to be inked in the middle of 2020, making it possible for the first phase to become operational by 2023. The latest development will pave the way for Thailand to become a MRO center for a large number of aircraft from inside and outside the region. Nonetheless, the MRO market competition has recently intensified as many countries in ASEAN also aspire to become an investment base for this industry as well....Read more

3 Jan 2020

Tourism

2020 is a challenging year for inbound tourism…with international travelers expected to increase 2.0%-3.0% or 40.5-40.9 million people (Current Issue No.3068)

Inbound tourism in 2020 faces a daunting prospect, which affects the number of international tourists and their spending. The market lacks new factors while risks remain and have even worsened. For example, the gloomy global economic sentiment could discourage the international travelers’ activities, heightening competition among the tourist destination countries to attract these globe trotters. In addition, there will be two world-class sports events in 2020, namely, the 2020 UEFA European Football Championship (EURO 2020) and the Summer Olympics in Japan....Read more

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27 Dec 2019

Financial Markets

“The Baht strengthened, while the SET rose on year-end LTF and RMF purchases”

The Baht rose to test THB30.15/USD amid the US dollar’s sell-offs on the back of weaker-than-expected US durable goods and new home sales data. However, the Baht’s weekly movement was tight due to thin trading volume before the year-end holidays. ...Read more

20 Dec 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht stayed within a tight range, while the SET closed near last week’s level. Foreign Exchange Market

The Baht rose to test the THB30.15/USD. The Baht strengthened on the back of strong regional currencies, led by the Yuan amid news reports that the US and China were close to finalize the first phase of a trade deal. The US dollar faced sell-offs after the Fed signaled that it would not raise its policy rate if there was no inflationary pressures next year. Net foreign bond buying-orders also supported the Baht. ...Read more

13 Dec 2019

Financial Markets

The Baht rebounded strongly, while the SET rose on hopes of US-China trade deal.

The Baht rose to test the THB30.15/USD. The Baht strengthened on the back of strong regional currencies, led by the Yuan amid news reports that the US and China were close to finalize the first phase of a trade deal. The US dollar faced sell-offs after the Fed signaled that it would not raise its policy rate if there was no inflationary pressures next year. Net foreign bond buying-orders also supported the Baht. ...Read more