28 Jun 2019
International Economy
All eyes are on the G20 Summit, in particular a talk between the US and China, the world’s superpowers, to end the trade war that will last for a year in July 2019. Looking back, it is believed that the US and China knew that they would not benefit from the persistent trade war. A clear consequence ... Read more
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7 May 2019
The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater press... Read more
29 Apr 2019
KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the policy rate at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 30-May 1, 2019. The Fed’s hint at easing monetary policy will sustain the US economic growth in the remainder of this year. During 2Q19 and 3Q19, the US e... Read more
17 Apr 2019
Chinese economy in 1Q19 expanded 6.4 percent YoY compared to 6.6 percent growth in 2018, while exports increased only 1.0 percent YoY versus 9.9 percent in 2018. Nonetheless, the government’s stimulus policy has begun to bear fruit to support the growth momentum of the Chinese economy. The Chinese... Read more
15 Mar 2019
KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the policy rates unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19-20, 2019. High external risk, slowing US economic activities and lower US inflation will prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate ... Read more
12 Mar 2019
After British Prime Minister Theresa May sustained a parliamentary defeat as MPs rejected her Brexit plan on January 15, 2019, the UK parliament is scheduled to vote on her revised withdrawal agreement again on March 12, 2019, being the second meaningful vote on whether to leave the EU without a dea... Read more
5 Mar 2019
The Thai Baht weakened from late February to early March, 2019 after hitting a five-year record high of THB31.07 per Dollar. The Baht traded within a range of THB31.80-THB31.85 per Dollar (as of March 5, 2019) amid varied pressures, namely domestic factors and US Dollar short-covering from many mark... Read more
13 Feb 2019
From February 1, 2019 onward, Japan’s car and auto-parts exports to the EU will enjoy gradual cuts in import tariffs under the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). KResearch views that since the EU will likely have to import more vehicles and auto-parts from Japan, Japanese carmakers may n... Read more
28 Jan 2019
KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during its first policymaking meeting of the year from January 29-30, 2019. Although the US economy has shown signs of solid growth, risks associated with global economic uncertainty may prompt the US centra... Read more
22 Jan 2019
China’s economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, declining substantially from the 6.8 percent pace recorded in 2017. Its economy has weakened steadily, especially during 4Q18 to 6.4 percent, representing the lowest growth in 28 years. The sharp decline in 4Q18 economic performance was attributable chiefly ... Read more
16 Jan 2019
The UK parliament voted to reject the Brexit deal presented by Prime Minister Theresa May on January 14, 2019 with 432 rejecting votes and only 202 approving votes. The result marks the heaviest parliamentary defeat of a British prime minister in history. The vote results show that members of the U... Read more
Thailand experienced the first time of its KR CLMV Economic Presence (CLMV-EPI) Index not being among the top three ranking since the fourth quarter of 2017, replaced by Japan at the third position as affirmed by its increasing role as a large investor in CLMV. Change in Japan’s direct investment in... Read more
14 Dec 2018
We at KResearch view that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely raise its policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 2.25-2.50 percent over the current 2.00-2.25 percent at its final meeting of 2018 as it marches toward a more normal policy stance, given that the US economy has outperf... Read more
3 Dec 2018
On the sidelines of the G20 meetings in Buenos Aires, Argentina on December 1, 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a temporary truce, agreeing not to increase punitive tariffs for 90 days after the G20 meetings to pave the way for negotiations to end the trade wa... Read more
19 Nov 2018
Uncertainties associated with the trade war between Washington and Beijing may prompt investors to manage their business risks by diversifying their investments from China to countries not directly affected by the trade battle. Nonetheless, direct benefits for Thailand will be limited because Thaila... Read more
7 Nov 2018
At present, the fast-paced business world is fuelled largely by digital disruption. The tourism and hospitality business is one of the industries that has experienced a rapid evolution in the past decade, with Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) emerging to become a force to be reckoned with. The OT... Read more
31 Oct 2018
We at KResearch expect that the FOMC will resolve to keep its policy rate intact at 2.00-2.25 percent at the upcoming meeting slated for September 7-8, 2018 before raising the Fed Funds rate by another 0.25 percent at the final meeting of this year. Factors supporting the path of Fed’s monetary poli... Read more
19 Oct 2018
China’s economic growth slipped to 6.5 percent YoY in 3Q18, representing a record low since 2009. The decelerated growth was attributable to steady drop in its industrial production amid the country’s trade dispute, which is expected to escalate ahead, plus persistent sluggishness seen in household ... Read more
10 Oct 2018
It is apparent that the Thai currency and the Thai government bond yields - especially the long-term bond yields - have begun to ostensibly “swing” in the last quarter of the year. The Thai Baht weakened to touch THB33.10 against the greenback on October 9 (when the net sales of equities and bonds b... Read more
21 Sep 2018
KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the policy interest rate by 0.25 percent from 1.75-2.00 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent in its meeting slated for September 25-26, 2018. The Fed will also likely announce an increase in its balance sheet normalization process to the maximu... Read more
16 Aug 2018
Financial markets worldwide are keeping close watch on possible risks and impacts that may be caused by the Turkish Lira crisis. Although the Lira has picked up somewhat (after hitting a historical low at 7.2362/USD on August 13), it will likely face many sell-offs ahead amid limited tools/resource... Read more
15 Aug 2018
In 2018, the Turkish economy is facing pressures from all sides amid risks threatening its economic stability such as the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which accelerates fund outflows and continuously and quickly increases borrowing costs. An increasing oil price and weaker Turkish lira have c... Read more
26 Jul 2018
KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold the policy rates steady at 1.75-2.00 percent during the fifth round of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year. The risk factor - that may disrupt the path of the US economic recovery in the remainder of this year - is still the ... Read more
In 2018, the trade war provoked by the US may not produce significant repercussions on Thailand, given that the measures to impose new tariffs on solar panels, large washing machines, iron and aluminum since the beginning of the year has not involved considerable value. Despite, the first round of n... Read more
19 Jul 2018
From the beginning of 2018 to July 19, the Yuan weakened by more than 3.5 percent against the US Dollar, representing a new record low of CNY6.73/USD. Factors contributing to a rapid softening of the Yuan over the past few months include heightened risks stemming from the US-China trade war, which h... Read more
17 Jul 2018
While China’s government policies have constrained growth in some economic sectors, its GDP report for 2Q18 indicated ongoing growth overall, reaching 6.7 percent YoY compared to the 6.8-percent pace reported for 1Q18. Considering growth components, the factors pressuring economic growth include the... Read more
11 Jun 2018
KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points from 1.50-1.75 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the fourth round of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year on June 12-13, 2018. A solid expansion of the US economy and the f... Read more
4 Jun 2018
The economic policies recently announced by newly-elected Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad mark a major shift from those under the ousted Barisan Nasional government, especially the country’s policies on large-scale infrastructure investments. On May 28, 2018, Prime Minister Mahathir announ... Read more
25 May 2018
Finally, China and the US have reached a compromise to ease trade tensions. Recently, Beijing announced that it will cut tariffs on imported passenger cars from 25 to 15 percent and auto parts from 10 to 6 percent, effective July 1, 2018. Looking forward, China is set to announce a string of measure... Read more
27 Apr 2018
KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resolve to maintain its policy interest rate at 1.50-1.75 percent in its third meeting of this year, in awaiting to assess further developments of the US economy and risks arising from trade disputes. Given the US attempts to minimize their trade defi... Read more
19 Apr 2018
In KResearch’s view, China’s economy may slow over the remainder of 2018, along with exports that will likely weaken as well, amid full-year growth that is expected to reach 6.6 percent YoY. Because accelerated shipments were already transacted before the effectiveness of new tariff rates per Sectio... Read more
23 Mar 2018
US President Donald Trump has signed an executive memorandum to slap tariffs worth USD60 billion on Chinese exports, reasoning that China has infringed on US intellectual property per Section 301 Anchorof the 1974 Trade Act. Although this round of trade measures is the most serious so far against f... Read more
16 Mar 2018
We at KResearch expect that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will increase its key policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 1.50-1.75 percent at the second meeting of 2018 slated for March 20-21, given that the US economy has grown beyond its potential. Looking ahead, there is a likelihood ... Read more
14 Mar 2018
The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist m... Read more
6 Mar 2018
All eyes were on the National People’s Congress, March 5, 2018, because the ruling Communist Party proposed constitutional a... Read more
2 Mar 2018
Throughout 2018, the US administration’s continual pursuit of protectionist trade measures has tended to increase volatility in global trade. Most recently, President Donald Trump announced that new “safeguard” tariffs would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports at 25 percent and 10 percent, resp... Read more
26 Jan 2018
KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain their policy rate at 1.25-1.50 percent during their first round of meeting o... Read more
26 Dec 2017
Thai exports to ASEAN-5 (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei) account for 59.3 percent of our total exports to the entire AS... Read more
19 Dec 2017
China's latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic eco... Read more
China’s latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic economic activity shows signs of a mild slowdown, their external trade remained solid. China’s economy continues to expand, but industrial manufacturing and investment have cooled, und... Read more
17 Nov 2017
The latest set of economic indicators unanimously point to a Chinese slowdown, whether in terms of production, investment, or consumption. Indeed,... Read more
30 Oct 2017
KResearch holds the view that the FOMC will resolve during their meeting slated for October 31-November 1, 2017, to maintain their key policy rate... Read more
25 Oct 2017
According to unofficial results, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, secured a commanding majority... Read more
20 Oct 2017
China's latest economic indicators have suggested satisfactory growth during 3Q17, notably with 6.8-percent growth YoY in GDP, though this has slow... Read more
22 Sep 2017
September 19-20, at their 6th meeting of 2017, KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve may signal the start of their balance sheet reductions by ... Read more
21 Sep 2017
Thai exports to Cambodia have risen over the past decade (2008-2016), recording an average growth of 12.6 percent YoY, excluding exports of... Read more
Thai exports to Cambodia have risen over the past decade (2008-2016), recording an average growth of 12.6 percent YoY, excluding exports of refined petroleum products and gold because those prices are volatile in nature. However, it is noteworthy that the growth rate over the past five years (2012-2... Read more
18 Sep 2017
Key real economy indicators released September 14th indicated a slowdown on both the supply and demand sides. Industrial... Read more
Key real economy indicators released September 14th indicated a slowdown on both the supply and demand sides. Industrial output for August expanded 6.0% YoY, down considerably from 6.4% during July, while fixed-asset investment grew 7.8% YTD YoY, slumping substantially from 8.3% during January-July.... Read more