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Economic Analysis

17 Jan 2023

International Economy

China’s zero-COVID policy led to its economic growth of only 3.0 percent in 2022, the lowest in more than five decades (Business Brief No.3987)

China’s zero-COVID policy led to its economic growth of only 3.0 percent in 2022, the lowest in more than five decades (Business Brief No.3987)... Read more

29 Dec 2022

International Economy

Second year of China-Lao PDR high-speed railway…to benefit from China’s relaxation of zero-Covid measures

While the China-Lao PDR high-speed railway is entering its second year of operation, transport of goods between southern China and ASEAN is expected to become more active. China’s potential reopening following positive signals on gradual relaxation of its zero-COVID measures will generate greater be... Read more

21 Dec 2022

International Economy

EU plans to implement CBAM October 1, 2023 (Business Brief No.3983)

Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) have reached an agreement to set up the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective October 1, 2023... Read more

29 Nov 2022

International Economy

Post-APEC summit…France actively strengthens relations with Thailand and ASEAN (Current Issue No.3366)

Regarding the 33rd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit hosted by Thailand, the French leader was officially invited as a special guest of the Thai government to attend the forum. During his visit to Thailand, marking the first such visit in 16 years, French President Emmanuel Macron and ... Read more

17 Nov 2022

International Economy

APEC CEO Summit 2022 showcases global visions of business leaders of APEC member economies (Current Issue No.3362)

During APEC 2022, hosted by Thailand, close attention must be paid to the APEC CEO Summit 2022 because it provides leading business leaders of APEC member economies an opportunity to showcase their visions. The program of the APEC CEO Summit focuses on the openness to trade and investment, as well a... Read more

10 Nov 2022

International Economy

US 2022 midterm election results set to affect passage of bills in Congress, but unlikely to alter 2023 US economic outlook (Current Issue No.3357)

Preliminary voting results of the US midterm elections, November 8, 2022, show that Republicans have inched closer to a House majority, while control of the Senate hinges on a few tight races. Regardless of whether Democrats can still hold a majority in the Senate, or not when the official voting re... Read more

1 Nov 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, November 1-2, 2022 Fed Funds rate likely be raised by another 0.75% amid increased inflationary pressure and projected slowdown in the US economy (Business Brief No.3981)

KResearch expects that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will consider raising its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, November 1-2, 2022, marking a 0.75 percent policy rate hike for the fourth consecutive meeting. ... Read more

26 Oct 2022

International Economy

Chinese economy grew 3.9% in 3Q22 and 3.0% during 9M22 (Business Brief No.3890)

The Chinese economy grew better-than-expected at 3.9 percent YoY in 3Q22, bettering the 0.4 percent growth reported for 2Q22. During 9M22, the Chinese economy expanded 3.0 percent, buoyed by the relaxation of lockdown measures in major cities such as Shanghai, allowing its manufacturing sector to re... Read more

20 Sep 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, September 20-21, 2022 Fed is set to raise its policy rate by another 0.75% amid increased inflationary pressures while close attention must be paid to Fed’s various projections (Business Brief No.3978)

It is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for September 20-21, 2022 as the US headline inflation rate for August was still higher than what was expected by the markets although it fel... Read more

19 Sep 2022

International Economy

China’s worst drought in nine years expected to support Thai jasmine rice exports to China for September-December 2022; much will depend on extent of flooding in Thailand (Current Issue No.3345)

China has been severely affected by a heat wave and drought. Although the situation has eased in some areas, the heat wave crisis may persist and affect crops that are to be harvested during the remainder of this year. This would boost imports into China, especially rice, wheat and maize.... Read more

25 Jul 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, July 26-27, 2022 Another 0.75% rate hike likely amid steady increases in inflation while the US economy shows signs of cooling down (Business Brief No.3976)

It is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for July 26-27, 2022. The latest inflation figure for June hit a record four-decade high of 9.1 percent YoY, prompting the Fed to pl... Read more

16 Jul 2022

International Economy

China’s economy grew by 0.4 percent YoY in 2Q22 and 2.5 percent in 1H22. (Current Issue No.3975)

China’s economy grew by 0.4 percent YoY in 2Q22 and 2.5 percent in 1H22. In the second half of 2022, China’s economy will likely improve but continue to face risks from its zero-COVID policy and ongoing property sector slowdown. For full-year 2022, its economic growth is projected to be in a range o... Read more

24 Jun 2022

International Economy

Yen weakens to a two-decade low...Thai exports to Japan decline 0.6 percent (Current Issue No.3327)

Japan's currency has been weakening and hit a 24-year low at Yen 136.24 per USD (as of June 22, 2022), declining 17.1 percent compared to early 2022. Compared to other major currencies, the Yen saw the steepest depreciation, and has signaled a continued drop throughout the rest of the year. The glob... Read more

13 Jun 2022

International Economy

Fed is expected to raise its policy rate by another 0.50% and continue to send aggressive signals after inflation hit a new four-decade high (Business Brief No.3973)

At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, June 14-15, 2022, it is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.50 percent as earlier signaled. Moreover, it will continue to place emphasis on the inflation risk as hovering inflation will unlikely ease ... Read more

30 Apr 2022

International Economy

Fed to raise policy rate by another 0.50% to stem inflation…A move that will drive up the US dollar ahead (Business Brief No.3970)

As previously signaled, it is expected that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.50 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, May 3-4, 2022, with the aim of combating elevated inflation. The Fed may continue to place emphasis on maintaining price sta... Read more

18 Apr 2022

International Economy

China’s economy grew 4.8% YoY in 1Q22 (Business Brief No.3969)

China’s economy grew 4.8 percent YoY and 1.3 percent QoQ in the first quarter of 2022 amid pressing issues. Details concerning China’s economic growth in 1Q22 are as follows... Read more

3 Feb 2022

International Economy

Relations with Saudi Arabia restored... FTA in the works to keep Thailand ahead of its competitors (Current Issue No.3305)

The restoration of diplomatic relations between Thailand and Saudi Arabia for the first time in 30 years makes it likely that economic ties between the two countries will be strengthened. In 2021, bilateral trade between the two countries was valued at only USD 7.301 billion – primarily due to Thail... Read more

21 Jan 2022

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, Jan. 25-26: No New Signals to be Given, Except for Rate Hike in March as Already Priced in by Markets (Business Brief No.3964)

Amid the persistent acceleration of inflationary pressure and the fact that the US is on the cusp of full employment, it is expected that the Fed will begin its interest rate hike in March 2022 as signaled by many Fed officials. However, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages in the US will un... Read more

31 Dec 2021

International Economy

Launch of RCEP on January 1, 2022 Set to Reinvigorate Regional Trade and Investment, but Thailand May Face Increased Competition in Attracting Investment (Current Issue No.3298)

ความตกลงหุ้นส่วนทางเศรษฐกิจระดับภูมิภาค (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: RCEP) นับเป็นการเปิดเสรีการค้ากับกลุ่มการค้าที่มีขนาดใหญ่ที่สุดในโลก โดยจะมีผลบังคับใช้ในวันที่ 1 มกราคม 2565 นี้ หลังเจรจามายาวนานถึงเกือบทศวรรษ ซึ่งการเปิดเสรีการค้ากับ 15 ชาติสมาชิกจะช่วยให้การค้าระหว่างชาติสมาช... Read more

16 Dec 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 14-15, 2021: Fed Announced the Acceleration of QE Tapering and Signaled Three Rate Hikes in 2022 (Business Brief No.3959)

At the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it will double the rate at which it reduces monthy asset purchases (QE tapering program), meaning that the process will end by March 2022. The Fed also signaled three rate hikes next year to cope ... Read more

14 Dec 2021

International Economy

Fed may signal faster monetary policy tightening at the FOMC meeting on Dec. 14-15, 2021 (Business Brief No.3958)

Amid rising inflationary pressures, the Fed could increase the pace of its QE tapering and raise the policy rate much sooner than previously expected. The United States’ inflation rate continues to surge, with the headline inflation rate, gauged by the consumer price index soaring to a new high in a... Read more

2 Dec 2021

International Economy

EU takes the lead in ESG trend, poised to collect carbon border tax on imports... Thailand to feel impact over the next 2-3 years (Current Issue No.3288)

กระแส ESG แรงกดดันทางการค้าระลอกใหม่ท้าทายความสามารถในการแข่งขันของสินค้าไทย โดยที่ผ่านมา EU นำมาตรการด้านสิ่งแวดล้อมออกมาใช้ก่อนประเทศอื่นๆ ไม่ว่าจะเป็นการเก็บภาษีคาร์บอนกับธุรกิจในประเทศ การลดการใช้งานพลาสติก ล่าสุดกำลังจะเก็บภาษีคาร์บอนกับสินค้านำเข้าจากต่างประเทศในอีก 1 ปีข้างหน้า (ปี 2566) นอกจ... Read more

1 Nov 2021

International Economy

CPTPP vs RCEP China’s interest in CPTPP membership (Current Issue No.3282)

The Cabinet Meeting on October 12, 2021, discussed the “Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership” (CPTPP). The agreement garnered renewed attention in September after China expressed interest in becoming a member. Taiwan followed suit in submitting its application, while... Read more

30 Oct 2021

International Economy

Fed Expected to Announce its QE Tapering Program at the Upcoming FOMC Meeting, November 2-3, 2021 (Business Brief No.3956)

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOM0C) meeting, November 2-3, 2021, is seen as an important policy gathering because the Fed is expected to officially announce its QE tapering program after sending signals that it would begin to do so by the end of 2021 and complete the process by mid-20... Read more

18 Oct 2021

International Economy

China’s economic growth falls to 4.9% YoY in 3Q21... energy crisis still poses a risk in the final quarter of 2021 (Business Brief No.3953)

China’s economy in 3Q21 faced a wide range of economic issues, whereas China’s stimulus packages remain rather limited. As a result, the country’s economic growth in 3Q21 slowed to 4.9 percent YoY, following year-on-year growth of 18.3 percent in 1Q21 and 7.9 percent in 2Q21. Details are as follows:... Read more

27 Sep 2021

International Economy

Thailand’s 2021 border trade to grow over 28 percent despite crisis... southern Chinese market ranked No.1 for the first time (Current Issue No.3271)

Over the first eight months of 2021, Thailand’s cross-border trade including transit trade saw a progressively brighter outlook, thanks to last year’s low base, higher purchasing power and energy prices. Export value during the period reached THB 682.184 billion, rising by 38 percent YoY,. This grow... Read more

22 Sep 2021

International Economy

Timing of Monetary Policy Normalization in ASEAN after Fed’s Signals of Looming QE Tapering (Current Issue No.3269)

Globally, the COVID-19 crisis has begun to ease, particularly in developed countries. As a result, their economies have substantially bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, their labor markets have almost returned to normalcy. Concurrently, signs of increased inflationary pressures have ... Read more

21 Sep 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, September 21-22, 2021: View on QE Tapering Program Likely Unchanged after It Has Already Been Priced in by Markets (Business Brief No.3948)

We, at KResearch, asssess that the Fed will continue to maintain its policy rate within a range of 0.0-0.25 percent, and may not announce its QE tapering program at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, slated for September 21-22, 2021. The US central bank may also keep its view... Read more

7 Sep 2021

International Economy

India’s economy and FDI soars ... Thai exports to India in 2021 set to surge 40% (Current Issue No.3265)

India is an interesting country. Aside from its economic growth that ranks among the highest in the world, it was the fifth-largest FDI recipient in 2020. KResearch perceives that future investments especially in e-commerce and ICT industries, and the manufacturing of technological devices like smar... Read more

13 Aug 2021

International Economy

Rising Debt Defaults Will Unlikely Hurt Chinese Economy (Business Brief No.3945)

Although China’s economic stimulus measures post 2008 global financial crisis were successful in reviving its economic growth to at least 6 percent p.a. on average during the past decade, such measures have created persistent corporate debt. China’s corporate debt surged from 94 percent of GDP in 20... Read more

26 Jul 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, July 27-28, 2021: Fed Funds Rate Likely Maintained at 0.0-0.25% despite Rising Inflationary Pressure (Business Brief No.3941)

KResearch assesses that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, July 27-28, 2021, as the US labor market has yet to fully bounce back, and the number of unemployed remains substainally higher ... Read more

23 Jul 2021

International Economy

2020 Tokyo Olympic Games: Additional Benefits to Japan’s Economy May Be Limited (Current Issue No.3247)

The Tokyo Olympic Games, which had originally been scheduled for 2020, were postponed to 2021. Despite calls for it to be cancelled because of concerns that the COVID-19 there may get much worse, and the Olympics may bring more risks than economic benefits, the Japanese government finally confirmed ... Read more

20 Jul 2021

International Economy

U.S. and China’s legal tools... the prelude to global leadership competition in the new era (Current Issue No.3246)

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, its economy has continuously seen accelerated growth. China’s GDP reached USD 14.72 trillion in 2020, resulting in the narrowing of the economic gap between China and the United States. Meanwhile, China’s bargaining power has significan... Read more

16 Jul 2021

International Economy

China’s Target to Become a Carbon-free Country Set to Benefit Thai Exports that Meet Clean Energy Needs (Current Issue No.3245)

In the latest 14th plan for national and economic development, China has set a target to become a carbon -free nation by 2060 or over the next four decades. KResearch, however, is of the view that it will take China some time to achieve that target as its carbon emissions are growing unabated post-C... Read more

15 Jun 2021

International Economy

Fed likely to keep interest rates at 0.0-0.25% at FOMC on June 15-16; close attention should still be paid to economic and inflation forecasts (Business Brief No.3933)

KResearch has assessed that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25 percent during its upcoming monetary policy meeting on June 15-16, 2021, despite the rising inflation. The accelerating inflation can be primarily attributed to the resumption of economic activities af... Read more

27 May 2021

International Economy

Role of China in the CLMV Post-Pandemic World amid Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions (CLMV-EPI)

China’s economic role in the CLMV has substantially increased over the past years, particularly in trade via a number of strategies, aimed at building its economic influence and physical connectivity, such as transportation infrastructure projects and special economic zones under its Belt and Road I... Read more

13 May 2021

International Economy

US inflation surges above market forecast…Fed may need to implement QE tapering ahead of schedule; conditions rest on labor market (Business Brief No.3929)

US inflation surged above market forecasts in April 2021. Headline inflation rose 4.2 percent YoY, its highest level since September 2008. Meanwhile, core inflation reached 3.0 percent YoY. Such increases were driven by improving domestic demand following accelerated vaccination efforts and continuo... Read more

11 May 2021

International Economy

President Biden’s first 100 days: US economy set for strong recovery, though its implication for global economy remains shrouded in uncertainties (Current Issue No.3221)

Since Joe Biden’s presidential inauguration, a slew of stimulus measures have been expedited to rejuvenate the US economy, which has been severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Numerous stringent packages have been issued to curb the outbreaks, as well as accelerated COVID-19 vaccination efforts. Th... Read more

27 Apr 2021

International Economy

CLMV Countries May Enjoy Varying Benefits from Solid Global Economic Recovery (Current Issue No.3213)

It is projected that the global economy will record a solid recovery in post-pandemic 2021 as reflected by the International Monetary Fund’s decision to revise upward its 2021 growth forecast for the global economy to 6.0 percent from the prior estimate of 5.5 percent; the recovery will be led by la... Read more

26 Apr 2021

International Economy

Fed expected to maintain policy rate of 0.0-0.25 percent at its meeting on April 27-28, 2021 (Current Issue No.3927)

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate within the range of 0.0-0.25 percent at its meeting on April 27-28, 2021. While the US economy has shown signs of recovery following expedited vaccination efforts, with business activities able to return to normal amid t... Read more

16 Apr 2021

International Economy

Chinese economy in 1Q21 grew 18.3 percent YoY, its highest growth in 29 years, thanks to a low base in the previous year. Full-year 2021 still projected to grow by 8.0-8.5 percent. (Current Issue No.3922)

China’s economy in 1Q21 grew 18.3 percent YoY, sharply higher than 4Q20 which saw 6.5 percent growth YoY, setting the highest quarterly year-on-year growth in 29 years since China began to publish such data in 1992. This surge was primarily attributed to a low base in 1Q20, during which China’s ec... Read more

12 Apr 2021

International Economy

Myanmar’s Economy Projected to Contract 8.5% in 2021, Causing Thailand’s Cross Border Exports to Shrink for Fifth Consecutive Year (Business Brief No.3920)

Amid positive signs seen in the global economic recovery due to concerted efforts of many countries in combating the COVID-19 pandemic via rolling out COVID-19 vaccines, which have allowed them to ease lockdown restrictions, Myanmar is experiencing political turmoil at home. The country’s image in t... Read more

31 Mar 2021

International Economy

Vietnam’s economy in 1Q21 grew below expectations, owing to ebbing consumption and delayed FDI (Business Brief No.3919)

Vietnam’s economy in 1Q21 grew 4.48 percent YoY, below expectations, owing to the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on consumption and the service sector in early 2021. As a consequence of the outbreaks, the Vietnamese government issued measures to temporarily shut down businesses including restaurants,... Read more

23 Mar 2021

International Economy

Turkey’s Lira Crisis: Waning investor confidence amid troubled economy and compromised independence of Turkish central bank (Business Brief No.3916)

Turkey’s lira encountered a massive selloff when the Asian stock market opened on Monday (March 22, 2021). The lira depreciated beyond 8.0000, hitting its lowest level in four months at 8.4706 lira per dollar, or an estimated drop of 15 percent from the closing price on Friday (March 19). This plung... Read more

22 Mar 2021

International Economy

China’s Economy May Grow More Slowly than Prior Estimate Due to Its Cautious Fiscal and Monetary Stances, Plus Sluggish Domestic Consumption (Business Brief No.3915)

In the government policy statement reported at the National People’s Congress held in early March 2021, China’s Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China would target an economic growth of more than 6 percent p.a. in 2021. KResearch is of the view that the setting of such a relatively low economic g... Read more

16 Mar 2021

International Economy

Fed to Maintain Policy Rate at 0.0-0.25%, Aimed at Supporting Economic Recovery Despite Increased Inflationary Pressure (Business Brief No.3914)

KResearch assesses that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25 percent during the upcoming FOMC meeting that is slated for March 16-17, 2021. Although the US economy exhibits signs of recovery, it may take a while to fully bounce back, thus prompting the Fed to... Read more

3 Feb 2021

International Economy

Myanmar’ s Economy Projected to Contract 2.5-0.5% and Thailand-Myanmar Border Trade Set to Shrink for Fifth Consecutive year after Army Seize Power from the Government (Current Issue No.3186)

More dynamic relationships between Myanmar and Western powers were imperative in the development of Myanmar’s economy over the past decade. As a result, it has reported relatively impressive economic growth on the back of increased foreign investment, thus helping bolster its exports and allowing My... Read more

25 Jan 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, January 26-27, 2021: Fed expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged in anticipation of $1.9 trillion (Business Brief No.3909)

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the US policy rate within the range of 0.00-0.25 percent, without announcing any additional monetary easing tools, at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held on January 26-27, 2021. While the Fed is expected to ... Read more

18 Jan 2021

International Economy

2020 China’s GDP grew beyond projection at 2.3%; 2021 growth forecast at 8.0-8.5% with emphasis on qualitative growth and circular economy (Business Brief No.3907)

The economy of China in 4Q20 grew by 6.5 percent YoY, amounting to full-year growth that exceeded the projection, at 2.3 percent YoY. The figures reflect China’s success in efficiently controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and implementing both monetary and fiscal stimuli in a timely and effective manne... Read more

28 Dec 2020

International Economy

Brexit deal: Historic agreement that eases economic tensions amid COVID-19 pandemic (Current Issue No.3176)

Four years have passed since the United Kingdom held a referendum in which the majority voted to withdraw from the European Union (EU), on June 23, 2016. The UK and the EU have finally concluded their negotiations over the Brexit deal prior to the end of the transition period on December 31, 2020. G... Read more

22 Dec 2020

International Economy

Vietnam Will Likely be Able to Maintain Competitiveness Despite Strengthening Dong (Current Issue No.3172)

In the latest currency manipulation report published by the US Department of the Treasury in December 2020, Vietnam was designated as a currency manipulator because it fulfilled three benchmarks set by the US. These include an intervention in the currency-exchange market as evidenced by Vietnam’s ne... Read more

9 Dec 2020

International Economy

Baht set to strengthen even as Fed stalls QE at FOMC on Dec.15-16, 2020 (Business Brief No.3899)

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the US policy rate within the range of 0.00-0.25%, and it is unlikely that the Fed will announce any additional tools for quantitative easing (QE) at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held on December 15-16, 2020. ... Read more

19 Nov 2020

International Economy

RCEP Set to be Enforced, but Close Attention Must be Paid to the US Stance, which Could Affect Thailand Ahead (Current Issue No.3162)

Presently, Thailand is already a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is the world’s largest free trade agreement (FTA). This is most welcome news because the RCEP will likely help enhance Thailand’s competitiveness over the short term, although the country’s long-... Read more

13 Nov 2020

International Economy

All eyes on RCEP: the world’s largest free trade framework and Thailand’s most comprehensive FTA (Current Issue No.3159)

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, comprises 15 member states, namely the 10 ASEAN countries and their Plus 5 which consists of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. RCEP member states were finally able to wrap up their longstanding negotiations, which had been... Read more