9 Jun 2020
International Economy
The US economy continues to experience increased risk despite recovering signs seen after Washington began easing lockdown measures in May 2020. The US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 43.1 in May, rising over the 41.5 reported for April while unemployment slipped to 13.3 percent in May, ... Read more
FileSize KB
7 May 2020
A majority of ASEAN member states overall may experience fragile supply chains as a result of their dependency on imports of intermediate products from sources that are highly competitive in terms of costs, namely China, plus technologies from countries that own advanced technologies, such as South ... Read more
27 Apr 2020
The US economy is experiencing markedly elevated risk from the spread of COVID-19. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the US economy in 2020 may contract by 5.9 percent, a decline comparable in severity to that of the Great Depression in 1930. The US economy severely contracted afte... Read more
22 Apr 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic is having a negative impact on CLMV economies through their dependency on foreign-sourced revenue from tourism and exports. Countries which are heavily dependent on foreign revenue are facing more negative effects during this crisis.... Read more
17 Apr 2020
The Chinese economy contracted by 6.8 percent (YoY) in 1Q20, marking the first time that the Chinese economy has experienced a contraction since statistical reports began in 1992. The main reason for this phenomenon is the stringent COVID-19 disease control and prevention measures issued by the Chin... Read more
3 Apr 2020
The novel coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow in severity, with most parts of the world seeing no signs of easing or control of viral spread in the near future. The pandemic has plunged the world economy into a state of higher negative risk, as it enters a recession this year. Governm... Read more
4 Mar 2020
The Federal Reserve (Fed) trimmed its policy rate by 0.50 percent to 1.00-1.25 percent at an emergency meeting, March 3, 2020. The move suggests that the Fed has a more “negative” view towards the impact of the COVID-19 on household and business spending, plus the US economy overall, prompting it to... Read more
19 Feb 2020
The competiveness of Thai exports to CLMV has trended lower compared to dynamic exports of other Southeast Asian countries. Export share of other Southeast Asian countries in CLMV surged to over 50 percent in 2019, increasing from just 17 percent reported for 2018 or within only three years. The de... Read more
30 Jan 2020
The transmission of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (n-CoV) continues to escalate, prompting the Chinese authorities to take extreme measures to prevent the virus from spreading. For example, they locked down 18 cities in Hubei province by closing off access to the cities and transportation in the provi... Read more
27 Jan 2020
We at KResearch view that improving signs seen in the US economy overall will continue to provide the Fed room to keep its policy rate steady at least until 1Q20. However, the US manufacturing sector has not substantially recovery despite the signing of the first phase of a broader trade pact betwee... Read more
17 Jan 2020
China’s economy, in 4Q19, slowed from the previous quarter to grow 6.0 percent YoY, driven by positive factors from the latest development of the US trade conflict with China. The partial agreement was attributed to the turnaround of China’s export and manufacturing sectors in 4Q19 with acceleration... Read more
16 Jan 2020
The US-China phase 1 trade pact was officially inked on January 15, 2020, lifting hopes that their 2-year tensions could ease. However, the US and China will continue to experience higher tariffs, in particular China, as some of its exports to US are still subject to additional tariffs at the rate o... Read more
6 Jan 2020
The US-Iran tensions have ramped up after General Qasem Soleimani, the Iran’s top commander, was killed in Baghdad on January 3, 2020, shooting up the international benchmark Brent crude on January 6, 2020 by 7 percent as compared to the level registered at the end of 2019. This conflict is being cl... Read more
13 Dec 2019
The preliminary result of the UK election on December 12, 2019 shows that Boris Johnson's Conservative party has secured a majority, and he will remain prime minister. Moreover, the Conservative party has gained a comfortable majority, winning 364 seats (of the total 650 seats) in the House of Commo... Read more
9 Dec 2019
KResearch expects that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOCM) will likely resolve to keep its policy rate unchanged pending an economic assessment while also unveiling its new economic growth and interest rate forecasts at the final meeting of 2019. We expect that the Fed may maintain its 2020... Read more
25 Oct 2019
We at KResearch expect that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may cut its policy rate by another 0.25 percent at its meeting scheduled for October 29-30, 2019. Although the Fed resolved to steadily trim its policy rates at the latest two meetings and announced the purchase of short-term tr... Read more
21 Oct 2019
The Chinese economy grew 6.0 percent YoY in 3Q19, representing the slowest growth in almost 30 years and declining from the 6.2 percent pace recorded during 2Q19. The disappointing economic performance, which stands at the lower end of China’s growth target, will likely force the government to intro... Read more
9 Oct 2019
Vietnam’s automotive industry is set to grow substantially over the next 5-7 years and this will likely attract additional investments in its car production. Although Vietnam is far behind other ASEAN member states in many aspects, in particular its car production, KResearch views that its car produ... Read more
20 Sep 2019
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a plan to release its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) with an aim to increase the role of the Chinese Yuan on the world market and to combat money laundering. The new currency will be retail CBDC that Chinese can use in lieu of cash. It will ... Read more
16 Sep 2019
Drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s two major oil refineries on Saturday, September 14, 2019 have driven up Brent crude oil price in the futures market by almost 12 percent. The incident has sparked fears among investors worldwide over oil supply disruption because Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oi... Read more
KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point from 2.00-2.25 percent to 1.75-2.00 percent during the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC)’s meeting on September 17-18, 2019. The key US economic indicators, especially manufacturing output and employment, con... Read more
5 Sep 2019
The intensifying US-China trade dispute in terms of the value of goods subject to their import tariffs and magnitude of their import tariff hikes may shave Thai exports by approximately USD3 billion in 2019, against the USD2.4 billion projected before. ... Read more
15 Aug 2019
The inverted yield curve -- where the US 2-year note yield has risen above the benchmark 10-year yield for the first time 12 years – is fueling fears that the global economy may be heading for recession in the next 12 months. This is because the inverted yield curve is an indicator which has correct... Read more
7 Aug 2019
The People's Bank of China allowed its currency to fall below 7 Yuan to the US Dollar for the first time in 11 years after the US announced last week that it would slap a 10 percent tariff on USD300 billion of Chinese goods. The latest move by Beijing signals its readiness to retaliate against the U... Read more
6 Aug 2019
The trade war between the US and China has spread to a battle over currencies. Previously, their conflicts were limited to tariffs and international trade. Recently, the US Treasury Department accused China of “manipulating its currency”, representing a more aggressive move after China let the Yuan ... Read more
2 Aug 2019
US President Donald Trump eventually announced an additional 10 percent tariff on the remaining USD300 billion of Chinese imports, effective September 1, 2019, due mainly to the slow progress in the trade talks. In particular, Beijing is bargaining for conditions which are difficult to be achievable... Read more
1 Aug 2019
As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) slashed its policy rate for the first time in over 10 years to a range of 2.00-2.25 percent at its meeting, July 30-31, 2019. However, no signs of another policy rate cut have been seen from the Fed Chair. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting has disappoint... Read more
25 Jul 2019
KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve to cut the interest rates by 0.25 percent percentage point from 2.25-2.50 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent. Moreover, the Fed is likely to announce to end the balance sheet reduction before the initial schedule to ensure the continuity of the US economic expansio... Read more
17 Jul 2019
China's economic growth in 2Q19 grew at 6.2 percent, the slowest growth rate in 27 years and down from 6.4 percent in 1Q19. Consequently, China’s gross domestic product in 1H19 rose only 6.3 percent. The slump is a result of a fall in the global and domestic demands. Moreover, the prolonged trade wa... Read more
28 Jun 2019
All eyes are on the G20 Summit, in particular a talk between the US and China, the world’s superpowers, to end the trade war that will last for a year in July 2019. Looking back, it is believed that the US and China knew that they would not benefit from the persistent trade war. A clear consequence ... Read more
26 Jun 2019
The ASEAN Summit 2019 ended with members agreeing to conclude the talks for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) framework by 2019. Thailand should take this opportunity as the ASEAN Chair to act as the facilitator to bridge the differences among members to push for the success of ... Read more
7 May 2019
The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater press... Read more
29 Apr 2019
KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the policy rate at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 30-May 1, 2019. The Fed’s hint at easing monetary policy will sustain the US economic growth in the remainder of this year. During 2Q19 and 3Q19, the US e... Read more
17 Apr 2019
Chinese economy in 1Q19 expanded 6.4 percent YoY compared to 6.6 percent growth in 2018, while exports increased only 1.0 percent YoY versus 9.9 percent in 2018. Nonetheless, the government’s stimulus policy has begun to bear fruit to support the growth momentum of the Chinese economy. The Chinese... Read more
15 Mar 2019
KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the policy rates unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19-20, 2019. High external risk, slowing US economic activities and lower US inflation will prompt the Fed to hint at only one rate ... Read more
12 Mar 2019
After British Prime Minister Theresa May sustained a parliamentary defeat as MPs rejected her Brexit plan on January 15, 2019, the UK parliament is scheduled to vote on her revised withdrawal agreement again on March 12, 2019, being the second meaningful vote on whether to leave the EU without a dea... Read more
5 Mar 2019
The Thai Baht weakened from late February to early March, 2019 after hitting a five-year record high of THB31.07 per Dollar. The Baht traded within a range of THB31.80-THB31.85 per Dollar (as of March 5, 2019) amid varied pressures, namely domestic factors and US Dollar short-covering from many mark... Read more
13 Feb 2019
From February 1, 2019 onward, Japan’s car and auto-parts exports to the EU will enjoy gradual cuts in import tariffs under the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). KResearch views that since the EU will likely have to import more vehicles and auto-parts from Japan, Japanese carmakers may n... Read more
28 Jan 2019
KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50 percent during its first policymaking meeting of the year from January 29-30, 2019. Although the US economy has shown signs of solid growth, risks associated with global economic uncertainty may prompt the US centra... Read more
24 Jan 2019
On January 8, 2019, the European Union (EU) announced to lift the so-called “Yellow Card” or warning on Thailand for our substantial progress in tackling illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. Although the removal helps improve the image of Thai seafood products, such exports the EU wil... Read more
22 Jan 2019
China’s economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, declining substantially from the 6.8 percent pace recorded in 2017. Its economy has weakened steadily, especially during 4Q18 to 6.4 percent, representing the lowest growth in 28 years. The sharp decline in 4Q18 economic performance was attributable chiefly ... Read more
16 Jan 2019
The UK parliament voted to reject the Brexit deal presented by Prime Minister Theresa May on January 14, 2019 with 432 rejecting votes and only 202 approving votes. The result marks the heaviest parliamentary defeat of a British prime minister in history. The vote results show that members of the U... Read more
Thailand experienced the first time of its KR CLMV Economic Presence (CLMV-EPI) Index not being among the top three ranking since the fourth quarter of 2017, replaced by Japan at the third position as affirmed by its increasing role as a large investor in CLMV. Change in Japan’s direct investment in... Read more
14 Dec 2018
We at KResearch view that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely raise its policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 2.25-2.50 percent over the current 2.00-2.25 percent at its final meeting of 2018 as it marches toward a more normal policy stance, given that the US economy has outperf... Read more
3 Dec 2018
On the sidelines of the G20 meetings in Buenos Aires, Argentina on December 1, 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a temporary truce, agreeing not to increase punitive tariffs for 90 days after the G20 meetings to pave the way for negotiations to end the trade wa... Read more
19 Nov 2018
Uncertainties associated with the trade war between Washington and Beijing may prompt investors to manage their business risks by diversifying their investments from China to countries not directly affected by the trade battle. Nonetheless, direct benefits for Thailand will be limited because Thaila... Read more
7 Nov 2018
At present, the fast-paced business world is fuelled largely by digital disruption. The tourism and hospitality business is one of the industries that has experienced a rapid evolution in the past decade, with Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) emerging to become a force to be reckoned with. The OT... Read more
31 Oct 2018
We at KResearch expect that the FOMC will resolve to keep its policy rate intact at 2.00-2.25 percent at the upcoming meeting slated for September 7-8, 2018 before raising the Fed Funds rate by another 0.25 percent at the final meeting of this year. Factors supporting the path of Fed’s monetary poli... Read more
19 Oct 2018
China’s economic growth slipped to 6.5 percent YoY in 3Q18, representing a record low since 2009. The decelerated growth was attributable to steady drop in its industrial production amid the country’s trade dispute, which is expected to escalate ahead, plus persistent sluggishness seen in household ... Read more
10 Oct 2018
It is apparent that the Thai currency and the Thai government bond yields - especially the long-term bond yields - have begun to ostensibly “swing” in the last quarter of the year. The Thai Baht weakened to touch THB33.10 against the greenback on October 9 (when the net sales of equities and bonds b... Read more
21 Sep 2018
KResearch expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise the policy interest rate by 0.25 percent from 1.75-2.00 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent in its meeting slated for September 25-26, 2018. The Fed will also likely announce an increase in its balance sheet normalization process to the maximu... Read more
16 Aug 2018
Financial markets worldwide are keeping close watch on possible risks and impacts that may be caused by the Turkish Lira crisis. Although the Lira has picked up somewhat (after hitting a historical low at 7.2362/USD on August 13), it will likely face many sell-offs ahead amid limited tools/resource... Read more
15 Aug 2018
In 2018, the Turkish economy is facing pressures from all sides amid risks threatening its economic stability such as the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which accelerates fund outflows and continuously and quickly increases borrowing costs. An increasing oil price and weaker Turkish lira have c... Read more