The Vietnamese economy in 2024 grew at 7.09% and is expected to achieve growth of 6.8% in 2025 amid the risks of a renewed trade war (Business Brief No.4113 Full Ed.)

• The Vietnamese economy in 2024 grew at 7.09 percent, bettering the 5.05 percent growth reported for 2023, driven by growth in exports (14.32 percent), overall investment (7.02 percent, and final consumption (6.57 percent).
• The country’s economy in 2025 is expected to achieve 6.8-percent growth despite the risk of a new round of the trade war. The anticipated growth is supported by continuous growth of FDI due to production relocation from China, and favorable export performance although growth may drop to 12.0 percent in 2025 in line with weak conditions in the world’s leading economies and the trade barriers expected to be imposed by the US in the second half of the year.
• However, the country’s economy may face the increased risk from any US import tariff hikes, as its reliance on the US market is the highest in ASEAN, accounting for 22.4 percent of GDP. Most vulnerable products may include clothing, furniture, toys, and leather goods. In addition, a new round of the trade war could lead to overcapacity in China, resulting in an influx of Chinese goods into the Vietnamese market.
•Furthermore, the country’s economy may face risks from asset quality problems in the banking system and the Dong’s depreciation.