Display mode (Doesn't show in master page preview)

Economic Analysis

29 Nov 2022

International Economy

Post-APEC summit…France actively strengthens relations with Thailand and ASEAN (Current Issue No.3366)

Regarding the 33rd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit hosted by Thailand, the French leader was officially invited as a special guest of the Thai government to attend the forum. During his visit to Thailand, marking the first such visit in 16 years, French President Emmanuel Macron and ... Read more

17 Nov 2022

International Economy

APEC CEO Summit 2022 showcases global visions of business leaders of APEC member economies (Current Issue No.3362)

During APEC 2022, hosted by Thailand, close attention must be paid to the APEC CEO Summit 2022 because it provides leading business leaders of APEC member economies an opportunity to showcase their visions. The program of the APEC CEO Summit focuses on the openness to trade and investment, as well a... Read more

10 Nov 2022

International Economy

US 2022 midterm election results set to affect passage of bills in Congress, but unlikely to alter 2023 US economic outlook (Current Issue No.3357)

Preliminary voting results of the US midterm elections, November 8, 2022, show that Republicans have inched closer to a House majority, while control of the Senate hinges on a few tight races. Regardless of whether Democrats can still hold a majority in the Senate, or not when the official voting re... Read more

1 Nov 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, November 1-2, 2022 Fed Funds rate likely be raised by another 0.75% amid increased inflationary pressure and projected slowdown in the US economy (Business Brief No.3981)

KResearch expects that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will consider raising its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, November 1-2, 2022, marking a 0.75 percent policy rate hike for the fourth consecutive meeting. ... Read more

26 Oct 2022

International Economy

Chinese economy grew 3.9% in 3Q22 and 3.0% during 9M22 (Business Brief No.3890)

The Chinese economy grew better-than-expected at 3.9 percent YoY in 3Q22, bettering the 0.4 percent growth reported for 2Q22. During 9M22, the Chinese economy expanded 3.0 percent, buoyed by the relaxation of lockdown measures in major cities such as Shanghai, allowing its manufacturing sector to re... Read more

21 Sep 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkokians’ spending on Kin Jae to amount to THB 3.2 billion, with reduced number of days of participation and meals consumed, amid rising prices of vegetarian food (Current Issue No.3346)

Due to rising vegetarian food prices in line with higher production costs, and floods damaging agricultural crops that are the main ingredients of vegetarian food, especially vegetables and tofu which typically see price hikes during the Kin Jae festival, the number of Bangkok residents participatin... Read more

20 Sep 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, September 20-21, 2022 Fed is set to raise its policy rate by another 0.75% amid increased inflationary pressures while close attention must be paid to Fed’s various projections (Business Brief No.3978)

It is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for September 20-21, 2022 as the US headline inflation rate for August was still higher than what was expected by the markets although it fel... Read more

19 Sep 2022

International Economy

China’s worst drought in nine years expected to support Thai jasmine rice exports to China for September-December 2022; much will depend on extent of flooding in Thailand (Current Issue No.3345)

China has been severely affected by a heat wave and drought. Although the situation has eased in some areas, the heat wave crisis may persist and affect crops that are to be harvested during the remainder of this year. This would boost imports into China, especially rice, wheat and maize.... Read more

31 Aug 2022

Thai Economy

The first minimum wage hike in two years, under different economic conditions… cost pass-through by business operators to remain limited in 2022 (Current Issue No.3342)

The tripartite national wage committee has resolved to raise the minimum wage rates for the year 2022, which will be proposed for the Cabinet’s approval to take effect on October 1, 2022. There are nine new minimum wage levels. The lowest rate is THB 328, and the highest is THB 354 (the current rate... Read more

10 Aug 2022

Thai Economy

Households begin adjusting their spending behavior as most of them view that product prices will remain high for at least another year. The KR-ECI for July 2022 improved from its lowest-ever level following a slight drop in oil prices over the past month.

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI in July 2022 improved to 32.5 and 34.0, from their lowest-ever levels at 30.8 and 32.9 reported for June 2022, due to energy prices that were slightly lower than June, albeit remaining high. Additionally, further relaxation of Thailand’s entry restrictions has ... Read more

25 Jul 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, July 26-27, 2022 Another 0.75% rate hike likely amid steady increases in inflation while the US economy shows signs of cooling down (Business Brief No.3976)

It is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for July 26-27, 2022. The latest inflation figure for June hit a record four-decade high of 9.1 percent YoY, prompting the Fed to pl... Read more

16 Jul 2022

International Economy

China’s economy grew by 0.4 percent YoY in 2Q22 and 2.5 percent in 1H22. (Current Issue No.3975)

China’s economy grew by 0.4 percent YoY in 2Q22 and 2.5 percent in 1H22. In the second half of 2022, China’s economy will likely improve but continue to face risks from its zero-COVID policy and ongoing property sector slowdown. For full-year 2022, its economic growth is projected to be in a range o... Read more

1 Jul 2022

Thai Economy

25th Anniversary of the “Tom Yun Kung” crisis: Current economic situation may not repeat the past (Current Issue No.3330)

July 2, 2022 marks the 25th year after Thailand announced the floating of the Baht in 1997. The decision made at that time was an important turning point in Thailand’s exchange rate regime. Looking into 2022, the Baht is projected to soften in line with other Asian currencies 2022 due to the impact ... Read more

24 Jun 2022

International Economy

Yen weakens to a two-decade low...Thai exports to Japan decline 0.6 percent (Current Issue No.3327)

Japan's currency has been weakening and hit a 24-year low at Yen 136.24 per USD (as of June 22, 2022), declining 17.1 percent compared to early 2022. Compared to other major currencies, the Yen saw the steepest depreciation, and has signaled a continued drop throughout the rest of the year. The glob... Read more

13 Jun 2022

International Economy

Fed is expected to raise its policy rate by another 0.50% and continue to send aggressive signals after inflation hit a new four-decade high (Business Brief No.3973)

At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, June 14-15, 2022, it is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.50 percent as earlier signaled. Moreover, it will continue to place emphasis on the inflation risk as hovering inflation will unlikely ease ... Read more

10 May 2022

Thai Economy

New school year 2022: Education expenses set to rise 2.0 percent, with estimated value of THB 26.90 billion (Current Issue No.3324)

As the COVID-19 situation eases, students will be returning to study onsite per normal circumstances, with schools set to reopen on May 17. Generally, at this time of year, parents must assume the burden of their children’s education expenses. While the prices of energy and various goods have risen ... Read more

30 Apr 2022

International Economy

Fed to raise policy rate by another 0.50% to stem inflation…A move that will drive up the US dollar ahead (Business Brief No.3970)

As previously signaled, it is expected that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.50 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, May 3-4, 2022, with the aim of combating elevated inflation. The Fed may continue to place emphasis on maintaining price sta... Read more

18 Apr 2022

International Economy

China’s economy grew 4.8% YoY in 1Q22 (Business Brief No.3969)

China’s economy grew 4.8 percent YoY and 1.3 percent QoQ in the first quarter of 2022 amid pressing issues. Details concerning China’s economic growth in 1Q22 are as follows... Read more

8 Apr 2022

Thai Economy

Songkran 2022: Price promotion campaigns and changes in behavior limits growth of tourism spending (Current Issue No.3321)

Every year, the Songkran festival is a time when Thais return to their home provinces to celebrate the Thai New Year with their families, while others go on day trips or overnight stays.... Read more

3 Feb 2022

International Economy

Relations with Saudi Arabia restored... FTA in the works to keep Thailand ahead of its competitors (Current Issue No.3305)

The restoration of diplomatic relations between Thailand and Saudi Arabia for the first time in 30 years makes it likely that economic ties between the two countries will be strengthened. In 2021, bilateral trade between the two countries was valued at only USD 7.301 billion – primarily due to Thail... Read more

24 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Chinese New Year 2022: Spending expected to stall as Bangkokians focus on budget control amid surging product prices (Current Issue No.3303)

KResearch views that the gradual rise in product prices and living costs will continue to pressure Bangkokians’ spending during the Chinese New Year Festival in 2022. While the Omicron outbreak may have generated concern among consumers, some Bangkok residents of Chinese descent still plan to celebr... Read more

21 Jan 2022

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, Jan. 25-26: No New Signals to be Given, Except for Rate Hike in March as Already Priced in by Markets (Business Brief No.3964)

Amid the persistent acceleration of inflationary pressure and the fact that the US is on the cusp of full employment, it is expected that the Fed will begin its interest rate hike in March 2022 as signaled by many Fed officials. However, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages in the US will un... Read more

18 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkok residents adjust spending behavior to cope with rising cost of living (Current Issue No.3302)

The rise in living costs, whether it is in food prices, electricity bills or commuting expenses, has affected and generated much anxiety among Bangkok residents, particularly low-income earners who make less than THB15,000 a month, the worst-affected income group in the capital. In general, people w... Read more

13 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Government’s Additional Borrowing during 2022-2023 May Affect Liquidity, but Still Manageable (Business Brief No.3962)

It is likely that the budget deficit during 2022-2023 will continue to rise higher than pre-pandemic levels, and this may in turn affect the government’s borrowing plans in 2022. KResearch expects that outstanding public debt (based on the calendar year) may approach THB9.90 trillion in 2022, an inc... Read more

12 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI declines for the third consecutive month in December 2021 due to concerns over rising cost of living

For December 2021, KR-ECI continues to reflect concerns over the rising cost of living, particularly prices of food and beverages. During the recent New Year holiday, households were still worried about increasing expenses. As a result, December’s KR-ECI dropped to 33.9 percent from 34.7 percent in ... Read more

31 Dec 2021

International Economy

Launch of RCEP on January 1, 2022 Set to Reinvigorate Regional Trade and Investment, but Thailand May Face Increased Competition in Attracting Investment (Current Issue No.3298)

ความตกลงหุ้นส่วนทางเศรษฐกิจระดับภูมิภาค (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: RCEP) นับเป็นการเปิดเสรีการค้ากับกลุ่มการค้าที่มีขนาดใหญ่ที่สุดในโลก โดยจะมีผลบังคับใช้ในวันที่ 1 มกราคม 2565 นี้ หลังเจรจามายาวนานถึงเกือบทศวรรษ ซึ่งการเปิดเสรีการค้ากับ 15 ชาติสมาชิกจะช่วยให้การค้าระหว่างชาติสมาช... Read more

21 Dec 2021

Thai Economy

MPC meeting on December 22, 2021: Policy rate likely to be maintained at 0.5% amid increased uncertainty due to Omicron outbreak (Business Brief No.3960)

KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for December 22, 2021, amid heightened risk due to the Omicron variant of COVID-19. As a result, the number of international tourist arrivals in Thailand may be lower than ... Read more

16 Dec 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, December 14-15, 2021: Fed Announced the Acceleration of QE Tapering and Signaled Three Rate Hikes in 2022 (Business Brief No.3959)

At the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it will double the rate at which it reduces monthy asset purchases (QE tapering program), meaning that the process will end by March 2022. The Fed also signaled three rate hikes next year to cope ... Read more

14 Dec 2021

International Economy

Fed may signal faster monetary policy tightening at the FOMC meeting on Dec. 14-15, 2021 (Business Brief No.3958)

Amid rising inflationary pressures, the Fed could increase the pace of its QE tapering and raise the policy rate much sooner than previously expected. The United States’ inflation rate continues to surge, with the headline inflation rate, gauged by the consumer price index soaring to a new high in a... Read more

13 Dec 2021

Thai Economy

New Year 2022: More Bangkok residents to celebrate the festive season outside their homes, with spending expected to reach THB 30.5 billion (Current Issue No.3291)

KResearch perceives that New Year 2022 will likely have a more festive atmosphere than the year before, thanks to improvements in the COVID-19 situation, better access to vaccines, the government’s measures to boost purchasing power and an expedited campaign to support businesses during the holiday ... Read more

2 Dec 2021

International Economy

EU takes the lead in ESG trend, poised to collect carbon border tax on imports... Thailand to feel impact over the next 2-3 years (Current Issue No.3288)

กระแส ESG แรงกดดันทางการค้าระลอกใหม่ท้าทายความสามารถในการแข่งขันของสินค้าไทย โดยที่ผ่านมา EU นำมาตรการด้านสิ่งแวดล้อมออกมาใช้ก่อนประเทศอื่นๆ ไม่ว่าจะเป็นการเก็บภาษีคาร์บอนกับธุรกิจในประเทศ การลดการใช้งานพลาสติก ล่าสุดกำลังจะเก็บภาษีคาร์บอนกับสินค้านำเข้าจากต่างประเทศในอีก 1 ปีข้างหน้า (ปี 2566) นอกจ... Read more

9 Nov 2021

Thai Economy

Concerns over high cost of living caused October’s KR-ECI to decline Ongoing surge in oil prices and flood damage have caused prices of goods to rise in the short term

In October 2021, Thai households harbored increased concerns towards the economy and their living conditions, due to continuously rising energy prices and impact of recent floods, which have driven up vegetable prices. KR-ECI in October 2021 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI dropped to 34.9 and 36.7, ... Read more

1 Nov 2021

International Economy

CPTPP vs RCEP China’s interest in CPTPP membership (Current Issue No.3282)

The Cabinet Meeting on October 12, 2021, discussed the “Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership” (CPTPP). The agreement garnered renewed attention in September after China expressed interest in becoming a member. Taiwan followed suit in submitting its application, while... Read more

30 Oct 2021

International Economy

Fed Expected to Announce its QE Tapering Program at the Upcoming FOMC Meeting, November 2-3, 2021 (Business Brief No.3956)

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOM0C) meeting, November 2-3, 2021, is seen as an important policy gathering because the Fed is expected to officially announce its QE tapering program after sending signals that it would begin to do so by the end of 2021 and complete the process by mid-20... Read more

18 Oct 2021

International Economy

China’s economic growth falls to 4.9% YoY in 3Q21... energy crisis still poses a risk in the final quarter of 2021 (Business Brief No.3953)

China’s economy in 3Q21 faced a wide range of economic issues, whereas China’s stimulus packages remain rather limited. As a result, the country’s economic growth in 3Q21 slowed to 4.9 percent YoY, following year-on-year growth of 18.3 percent in 1Q21 and 7.9 percent in 2Q21. Details are as follows:... Read more

30 Sep 2021

Thai Economy

Bangkokians’ spending on Kin Jae to contract 8.2% in 2021, amid unfavorable circumstances and cautious spending (Current Issue No.3273)

While the COVID-19 situation and access to vaccines have started to improve, newly urgent matters like flooding and rising energy prices have rattled consumer confidence, sapping purchasing power and perhaps dissuading consumers from spending during the upcoming Kin Jae festival from October 6 – 14,... Read more

27 Sep 2021

International Economy

Thailand’s 2021 border trade to grow over 28 percent despite crisis... southern Chinese market ranked No.1 for the first time (Current Issue No.3271)

Over the first eight months of 2021, Thailand’s cross-border trade including transit trade saw a progressively brighter outlook, thanks to last year’s low base, higher purchasing power and energy prices. Export value during the period reached THB 682.184 billion, rising by 38 percent YoY,. This grow... Read more

22 Sep 2021

International Economy

Timing of Monetary Policy Normalization in ASEAN after Fed’s Signals of Looming QE Tapering (Current Issue No.3269)

Globally, the COVID-19 crisis has begun to ease, particularly in developed countries. As a result, their economies have substantially bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, their labor markets have almost returned to normalcy. Concurrently, signs of increased inflationary pressures have ... Read more

21 Sep 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, September 21-22, 2021: View on QE Tapering Program Likely Unchanged after It Has Already Been Priced in by Markets (Business Brief No.3948)

We, at KResearch, asssess that the Fed will continue to maintain its policy rate within a range of 0.0-0.25 percent, and may not announce its QE tapering program at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, slated for September 21-22, 2021. The US central bank may also keep its view... Read more

21 Sep 2021

Thai Economy

Thailand’s public debt ceiling raised… Fiscal stability to remain unaffected in the short term; additional income required in the long term (Business Brief No.3949)

The State Monetary and Fiscal Policy Committee approved a temporary debt limit increase from a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 percent to 70 percent. The higher ceiling is to expand the government’s fiscal space and would not pose a hindrance if the government has to secure a loan to implement medium-term f... Read more

7 Sep 2021

International Economy

India’s economy and FDI soars ... Thai exports to India in 2021 set to surge 40% (Current Issue No.3265)

India is an interesting country. Aside from its economic growth that ranks among the highest in the world, it was the fifth-largest FDI recipient in 2020. KResearch perceives that future investments especially in e-commerce and ICT industries, and the manufacturing of technological devices like smar... Read more

20 Aug 2021

Thai Economy

COVID-19 to Generate 61.3 Million Kilograms in Infectious Waste in 2021, Resulting in Increased Disposal Costs (Current Issue No.3257)

The persistent COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand and rising number of daily cases are set to generate increased amount of infectious waste during the remainder of 2021. We at KResearch project that the amount of infectious waste will reach roughly 61.3 million kilograms (excluding medical waste from Tha... Read more

16 Aug 2021

Thai Economy

KResearch revises downward Thailand’s 2021 Economic Growth Forecast to -0.5% due to economic impact from the COVID-19 outbreak (Business Brief No.3946)

The Thai economy in 1H21 grew more than previously assessed, as seen from economic indicators in 2Q21 which rose 7.5 percent YoY, mainly due to a low base effect and accelerated export growth. As a result, the Thai economy grew 2.0 percent YoY during the first half of 2021. However, the Thai economy... Read more

13 Aug 2021

International Economy

Rising Debt Defaults Will Unlikely Hurt Chinese Economy (Business Brief No.3945)

Although China’s economic stimulus measures post 2008 global financial crisis were successful in reviving its economic growth to at least 6 percent p.a. on average during the past decade, such measures have created persistent corporate debt. China’s corporate debt surged from 94 percent of GDP in 20... Read more

26 Jul 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, July 27-28, 2021: Fed Funds Rate Likely Maintained at 0.0-0.25% despite Rising Inflationary Pressure (Business Brief No.3941)

KResearch assesses that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, July 27-28, 2021, as the US labor market has yet to fully bounce back, and the number of unemployed remains substainally higher ... Read more

23 Jul 2021

International Economy

2020 Tokyo Olympic Games: Additional Benefits to Japan’s Economy May Be Limited (Current Issue No.3247)

The Tokyo Olympic Games, which had originally been scheduled for 2020, were postponed to 2021. Despite calls for it to be cancelled because of concerns that the COVID-19 there may get much worse, and the Olympics may bring more risks than economic benefits, the Japanese government finally confirmed ... Read more

20 Jul 2021

International Economy

U.S. and China’s legal tools... the prelude to global leadership competition in the new era (Current Issue No.3246)

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, its economy has continuously seen accelerated growth. China’s GDP reached USD 14.72 trillion in 2020, resulting in the narrowing of the economic gap between China and the United States. Meanwhile, China’s bargaining power has significan... Read more

16 Jul 2021

International Economy

China’s Target to Become a Carbon-free Country Set to Benefit Thai Exports that Meet Clean Energy Needs (Current Issue No.3245)

In the latest 14th plan for national and economic development, China has set a target to become a carbon -free nation by 2060 or over the next four decades. KResearch, however, is of the view that it will take China some time to achieve that target as its carbon emissions are growing unabated post-C... Read more

15 Jul 2021

Thai Economy

Intensified Impact of COVID-19 Leads KResearch to revise downward Thailand’s 2021 Economic Growth Forecast to 1.0% (Business Brief No.3937)

We, at KResearch, have decided to revise downward our 2021 growth forecast for the Thai economy to 1.0 percent, from a prior estimate of 1.8 percent, because the impact of COVID-19 on the economy has become more severe than previously assessed. Due to limitations of the Thai public health system, mo... Read more

9 Jul 2021

Thai Economy

Fragile employment has affected the spending behavior of households

“Fragile employment has affected the spending behavior of households Government’s new relief measures along with procurement and rollout of quality vaccines are urgently needed... Read more

7 Jul 2021

Global Minimum Tax Set to Change an Approach in Attracting FDI (Current Issue No.3240)

A total of 130 countries around the world have reached a historic deal on global tax reform with the aim of addressing tax avoidance problems caused by multinational companies (MNCs). The reform will focus on two matters: 1) Establishing a global minimum tax rate, and 2) Adopting a new and fairer al... Read more

29 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Net loss to Construction and Restaurant Businesses Set to Reach at least THB40 Billion within One Month of Partial Lockdown in Six Dark Red Zone Provinces (Current Issue No.3234)

The government has announced partial lockdown measures, including the prohibition of construction work, primarily at large construction projects for at least 30 days in the maximum and strict controlled zones (dark red) of six provinces, namely Bangkok, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut... Read more

15 Jun 2021

International Economy

Fed likely to keep interest rates at 0.0-0.25% at FOMC on June 15-16; close attention should still be paid to economic and inflation forecasts (Business Brief No.3933)

KResearch has assessed that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25 percent during its upcoming monetary policy meeting on June 15-16, 2021, despite the rising inflation. The accelerating inflation can be primarily attributed to the resumption of economic activities af... Read more

10 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Economic challenges amid COVID-19 third wave (Press June 10, 2021)

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) has kept its Thai economic projection for 2021 unchanged at 1.8 percent. The research house views that the Thai economy remains mired in uncertainty due to the persistence of COVID-19 both domestically and abroad, as well as vaccination progress. In the next 1-2 ... Read more

10 Jun 2021

Thai Economy

Households are still concerned about COVID-19 while dwindling savings have begun to affect their spending behavior

The relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures around mid-May and gradual implementation of the government’s relief measures helped push the KR-ECI up slightly to 37.3 in May, though remained low, compared to the 37.0 reported for April. Meanwhile, the 3-month Expected KR-ECI for May remained stati... Read more

27 May 2021

International Economy

Role of China in the CLMV Post-Pandemic World amid Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions (CLMV-EPI)

China’s economic role in the CLMV has substantially increased over the past years, particularly in trade via a number of strategies, aimed at building its economic influence and physical connectivity, such as transportation infrastructure projects and special economic zones under its Belt and Road I... Read more

25 May 2021

Thai Economy

COVID-19 Dents Household Liquidity, Forcing Parents to Cut their Children’s Educational Expenses during the 2021 School Year for the Second Straight Year (Current Issue No.3226))

It is expected that Thai parents will be grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic once again during the 2021 school year. KResearch recently conducted a survey on views of parents (who have children studying in kindergartens to high schools) towards the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during the 2021 school y... Read more

20 May 2021

Thai Economy

Government’s New THB700 Billion Loan to Help Enhance Flexibility in Fiscal Management amid Increased Uncertainties under COVID-19 Pandemic (Business Brief No.3931)

The Cabinet recently approved the draft of an executive decree authorizing the government to borrow another THB700 billion, in addition to the previous THB1 trillion loan, which has almost been used up. The new loan is intended to help enhance the government’s flexibility in ensuring that the econom... Read more

18 May 2021

Thai Economy

Thai economy shrinks for the fifth consecutive quarter; relief measures remain instrumental amid economic contraction and rising cost of living (Business Brief No.3930)

The Thai economy in 1Q21 shrank 2.6 percent YoY, less than the market forecast of -3.3 percent. This smaller-than-expected contraction was mainly driven by the global economic recovery and domestic stimulus packages, with Thai exports starting to exhibit strong signs of recovery in line with the eco... Read more

14 May 2021

Thai Economy

Real Returns Pressured by Rising Inflation Stemming from Murky Economic Conditions, High Liquidity and MPC’s Policy (Current Issue No.3222)

Presently, there are concerns about rising inflation around the world, including in the US and Thailand. However, the nature of inflation and economic conditions in Thailand and the US differ. In Thailand, the current inflation has been driven by supply-side factors, and the fact that Thailand is be... Read more

13 May 2021

International Economy

US inflation surges above market forecast…Fed may need to implement QE tapering ahead of schedule; conditions rest on labor market (Business Brief No.3929)

US inflation surged above market forecasts in April 2021. Headline inflation rose 4.2 percent YoY, its highest level since September 2008. Meanwhile, core inflation reached 3.0 percent YoY. Such increases were driven by improving domestic demand following accelerated vaccination efforts and continuo... Read more

11 May 2021

International Economy

President Biden’s first 100 days: US economy set for strong recovery, though its implication for global economy remains shrouded in uncertainties (Current Issue No.3221)

Since Joe Biden’s presidential inauguration, a slew of stimulus measures have been expedited to rejuvenate the US economy, which has been severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Numerous stringent packages have been issued to curb the outbreaks, as well as accelerated COVID-19 vaccination efforts. Th... Read more

11 May 2021

Thai Economy

April KR-ECI Declined as the Latest Wave of COVID-19 Dealt a Blow to Household Purchasing Power while Relief Measures Were Yet to be Implemented

The latest wave of COVID-19, which began in April, caused the April KR-ECI to plunge to 37.0 from the 40.4 reported in March. Household purchasing power was significantly weakened by the severe impact of COVID-19 while relief measures were yet to be implemented amid surging energy costs. All KR-ECI ... Read more

27 Apr 2021

International Economy

CLMV Countries May Enjoy Varying Benefits from Solid Global Economic Recovery (Current Issue No.3213)

It is projected that the global economy will record a solid recovery in post-pandemic 2021 as reflected by the International Monetary Fund’s decision to revise upward its 2021 growth forecast for the global economy to 6.0 percent from the prior estimate of 5.5 percent; the recovery will be led by la... Read more

26 Apr 2021

International Economy

Fed expected to maintain policy rate of 0.0-0.25 percent at its meeting on April 27-28, 2021 (Current Issue No.3927)

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate within the range of 0.0-0.25 percent at its meeting on April 27-28, 2021. While the US economy has shown signs of recovery following expedited vaccination efforts, with business activities able to return to normal amid t... Read more

20 Apr 2021

Thai Economy

Thailand’s 2021 GDP Growth Projected to Slip to 1.8% due to the Latest Wave of COVID-19 (Business Brief No.3923)

Due to the impact of the latest wave of COVID-19, KResearch projects that the Thai economy will grow at a slow rate of only 1.8 percent in 2021, against our prior estimate of 2.6 percent. We are of the view that the current COVID-19 pandemic in the country is much worse than the previous one. Additi... Read more

16 Apr 2021

International Economy

Chinese economy in 1Q21 grew 18.3 percent YoY, its highest growth in 29 years, thanks to a low base in the previous year. Full-year 2021 still projected to grow by 8.0-8.5 percent. (Current Issue No.3922)

China’s economy in 1Q21 grew 18.3 percent YoY, sharply higher than 4Q20 which saw 6.5 percent growth YoY, setting the highest quarterly year-on-year growth in 29 years since China began to publish such data in 1992. This surge was primarily attributed to a low base in 1Q20, during which China’s ec... Read more

12 Apr 2021

International Economy

Myanmar’s Economy Projected to Contract 8.5% in 2021, Causing Thailand’s Cross Border Exports to Shrink for Fifth Consecutive Year (Business Brief No.3920)

Amid positive signs seen in the global economic recovery due to concerted efforts of many countries in combating the COVID-19 pandemic via rolling out COVID-19 vaccines, which have allowed them to ease lockdown restrictions, Myanmar is experiencing political turmoil at home. The country’s image in t... Read more

9 Apr 2021

Thai Economy

Households continue to face high uncertainty after the emergence of a new wave of COVID-19…shoring up confidence an urgent mission for the government

The COVID-19 situation has intensified with a considerable rise in the number of cases. The epicenter of the new wave is Bangkok, and it has spread nationwide at a rapid rate, once more plunging the economy and households’ confidence into a high degree of uncertainty. In the forthcoming period, KR-E... Read more

2 Apr 2021

Thai Economy

Songkran 2021: Spending to remain subpar; Bangkokians gravitate towards celebrating at home (Current Issue No.3207)

KResearch projects that Bangkok residents’ spending during the 2021 Songkran festival will amount to THB 24 billion, a 4.0-percent contraction compared to Songkran in 2019 (excluding 2020, when the holiday was postponed). Tourism expenditure and travel costs for hometown trips may be particularly a... Read more

31 Mar 2021

International Economy

Vietnam’s economy in 1Q21 grew below expectations, owing to ebbing consumption and delayed FDI (Business Brief No.3919)

Vietnam’s economy in 1Q21 grew 4.48 percent YoY, below expectations, owing to the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on consumption and the service sector in early 2021. As a consequence of the outbreaks, the Vietnamese government issued measures to temporarily shut down businesses including restaurants,... Read more

23 Mar 2021

International Economy

Turkey’s Lira Crisis: Waning investor confidence amid troubled economy and compromised independence of Turkish central bank (Business Brief No.3916)

Turkey’s lira encountered a massive selloff when the Asian stock market opened on Monday (March 22, 2021). The lira depreciated beyond 8.0000, hitting its lowest level in four months at 8.4706 lira per dollar, or an estimated drop of 15 percent from the closing price on Friday (March 19). This plung... Read more

22 Mar 2021

International Economy

China’s Economy May Grow More Slowly than Prior Estimate Due to Its Cautious Fiscal and Monetary Stances, Plus Sluggish Domestic Consumption (Business Brief No.3915)

In the government policy statement reported at the National People’s Congress held in early March 2021, China’s Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China would target an economic growth of more than 6 percent p.a. in 2021. KResearch is of the view that the setting of such a relatively low economic g... Read more

16 Mar 2021

International Economy

Fed to Maintain Policy Rate at 0.0-0.25%, Aimed at Supporting Economic Recovery Despite Increased Inflationary Pressure (Business Brief No.3914)

KResearch assesses that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25 percent during the upcoming FOMC meeting that is slated for March 16-17, 2021. Although the US economy exhibits signs of recovery, it may take a while to fully bounce back, thus prompting the Fed to... Read more

9 Mar 2021

Thai Economy

Government relief measures and positive expectations towards vaccines caused KR-ECI to recover at a faster rate compared to the post-lockdown period in 2020

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in February 2021 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI both rose from the previous month to 39.5 and 41.3, respectively. These figures indicate that Thai households’ concerns over their livelihood have declined from the previous month as the COVID-19 situ... Read more

15 Feb 2021

Thai Economy

Thai economy in 2021 to recover at 2.6%; downside risk lies in Thailand’s reopening for international tourists in the last quarter of the year (Business Brief No.3912)

The Thai economy in 2020 shrank less than expected due to the support of the government’s stimulus packages. In 2020, the Thai economy contracted by 6.1 percent, which is slightly less severe than KResearch’s projection of -6.7 percent. The smaller-than-expected contraction can be primarily attribut... Read more

9 Feb 2021

Thai Economy

New COVID-19 outbreak caused KR-ECI in January 2021 to drop from the previous month, though the Index was higher than during the first wave

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in January 2021 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI both fell from the previous month to 37.2 and 38.8, respectively. Almost every component of the Index dropped, particularly employment and income level post COVID-19 resurgence since mid-December 2020... Read more

3 Feb 2021

International Economy

Myanmar’ s Economy Projected to Contract 2.5-0.5% and Thailand-Myanmar Border Trade Set to Shrink for Fifth Consecutive year after Army Seize Power from the Government (Current Issue No.3186)

More dynamic relationships between Myanmar and Western powers were imperative in the development of Myanmar’s economy over the past decade. As a result, it has reported relatively impressive economic growth on the back of increased foreign investment, thus helping bolster its exports and allowing My... Read more

2 Feb 2021

Thai Economy

Chinese New Year 2021: Bangkokians’ spending to shrink 10.4%; COVID-19 scare prompts more consumers to shop online (Current Issue No.3185)

While the Thai government relaxed its COVID-19-related measures in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area on February 1, 2021, and has announced a special holiday in February ( a three-day weekend), the COVID-19 situation has yet to be brought fully under control. Consumers’ purchasing power has long been a... Read more

25 Jan 2021

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, January 26-27, 2021: Fed expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged in anticipation of $1.9 trillion (Business Brief No.3909)

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the US policy rate within the range of 0.00-0.25 percent, without announcing any additional monetary easing tools, at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held on January 26-27, 2021. While the Fed is expected to ... Read more

18 Jan 2021

International Economy

2020 China’s GDP grew beyond projection at 2.3%; 2021 growth forecast at 8.0-8.5% with emphasis on qualitative growth and circular economy (Business Brief No.3907)

The economy of China in 4Q20 grew by 6.5 percent YoY, amounting to full-year growth that exceeded the projection, at 2.3 percent YoY. The figures reflect China’s success in efficiently controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and implementing both monetary and fiscal stimuli in a timely and effective manne... Read more

8 Jan 2021

Thai Economy

New Wave of COVID-19 Caused December KR-ECI to Decline for the First Time in 4 Months

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI fell to 40.2 and 40.7, respectively, in December 2020. All components of the KR-ECI also dropped. Households were more concerned about employment and income because of the resurgence of COVID-19 around mid-December 2020 (according to the survey conducted during... Read more

28 Dec 2020

International Economy

Brexit deal: Historic agreement that eases economic tensions amid COVID-19 pandemic (Current Issue No.3176)

Four years have passed since the United Kingdom held a referendum in which the majority voted to withdraw from the European Union (EU), on June 23, 2016. The UK and the EU have finally concluded their negotiations over the Brexit deal prior to the end of the transition period on December 31, 2020. G... Read more

22 Dec 2020

International Economy

Vietnam Will Likely be Able to Maintain Competitiveness Despite Strengthening Dong (Current Issue No.3172)

In the latest currency manipulation report published by the US Department of the Treasury in December 2020, Vietnam was designated as a currency manipulator because it fulfilled three benchmarks set by the US. These include an intervention in the currency-exchange market as evidenced by Vietnam’s ne... Read more

22 Dec 2020

Thai Economy

Resurgence of COVID-19 May Lead to Roughly THB45 Billion in Losses within One Month (Current Issue No.3173)

Thailand recently reported a new wave of COVID-19 at a shrimp market in Samut Sakhon, which has led to a lockdown in this province from December 19, 2020 to January 3, 2021 as well as some cases in other provinces. Preliminarily, if no clusters of infections are found in more provinces or a broad-ba... Read more

14 Dec 2020

Thai Economy

November KR-ECI Bounced Back to Near Pre-COVID-19 Levels, Supported by Government Consumption Stimulus Measures

The KR-ECI improved for the fifth consecutive month in November 2020, standing at 41.0, which was almost on par with the pre-COVID level of 40.6 in January 2020, because households, especially those in the agricultural sector, were more optimistic about employment and income. The improvement was als... Read more

9 Dec 2020

International Economy

Baht set to strengthen even as Fed stalls QE at FOMC on Dec.15-16, 2020 (Business Brief No.3899)

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the US policy rate within the range of 0.00-0.25%, and it is unlikely that the Fed will announce any additional tools for quantitative easing (QE) at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be held on December 15-16, 2020. ... Read more

4 Dec 2020

Thai Economy

New Year, 2021: Bangkok Residents to Spend Almost the Same as in 2020 at THB30 Billion, Thanks to Consumption-Boosting Programs (Current Issue No.3164)

A recent poll conducted by KResearch shows that if there were no government consumption-boosting programs, most Bangkok residents would have spent only THB5,300/person on average during the upcoming 2021 New Year holiday season due to concern about the prolonged coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic abroa... Read more

19 Nov 2020

International Economy

RCEP Set to be Enforced, but Close Attention Must be Paid to the US Stance, which Could Affect Thailand Ahead (Current Issue No.3162)

Presently, Thailand is already a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is the world’s largest free trade agreement (FTA). This is most welcome news because the RCEP will likely help enhance Thailand’s competitiveness over the short term, although the country’s long-... Read more

16 Nov 2020

Thai Economy

Thai economy in 3Q20 recovered faster than expected; GDP for full-year 2020 to contract by not less than -7.0% (Business Brief No.3896)

The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2020 contracted by less than the consensus forecast of -8.0 percent YoY. The satisfactory recovery of economic activity in 3Q20 can be attributed in part to pent-up demand after the relaxation of lockdowns across many countries, including Thailand. The less-t... Read more

13 Nov 2020

International Economy

All eyes on RCEP: the world’s largest free trade framework and Thailand’s most comprehensive FTA (Current Issue No.3159)

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, comprises 15 member states, namely the 10 ASEAN countries and their Plus 5 which consists of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. RCEP member states were finally able to wrap up their longstanding negotiations, which had been... Read more

11 Nov 2020

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Increased for Four Straight Months in October, Supported by Higher Income and Employment in the Agricultural Sector

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI increased for the fourth consecutive month in October 2020 because households, in particular those in the agricultural sector, were more optimistic about employment and income. The improved sentiment seen in agricultural households was consistent with steady in... Read more

4 Nov 2020

International Economy

2020 US election results set to benefit Thai products (Current Issue No.3158)

Preliminarily, products and businesses with ties to the US market will likely benefit from this historic election after braving the COVID-19 crisis this year, setting them on the path towards economic recovery in 2021. Indeed, the degree of recovery depends on the policies under the new president wh... Read more

3 Nov 2020

International Economy

US Presidential Election Results: US Economy Set to Recover Faster and US Dollar May Weaken if Biden Wins as Expected (Business Brief No.3894)

Various polls and projections all show that Joe Biden, the democratic presidential candidate, will win the 2020 US presidential election on November 3, 2020. Biden’s victory and the Democrats’ domination in both the House of Representatives and Senate would be a boon for the overall US economy as th... Read more

30 Oct 2020

International Economy

FOMC Meeting, November 4-5, 2020: Policy Rate Likely to Remain at 0.0-0.25%, But US Presidential Election Results May Affect Fed’s Future Policy Stance (Business Brief No.3893)

We at KResearch assess that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25 percent during its FOMC meeting slated for November 4-5, 2020 because the US economy has begun to rebound, thus lessening its pressure to cut the Fed Funds rate further. In addition, the Fed ... Read more

22 Oct 2020

International Economy

2020 US Presidential Election: Uncertainties Likely to Persist Until Inauguration Day, January 20, 2021 (Current Issue No.3150)

Special attention is being paid to the 2020 US presidential election, in particular visions and policy guidelines of presidential candidates to revive the US economy as the country is battling the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. KResearch is of the view that if Joe Biden, who is leading in the US e... Read more

19 Oct 2020

International Economy

China’s 3Q20 GDP grew 4.9% YoY, with 2020 growth projected at 1.7% amid numerous risks (Business Brief No.3891)

The Chinese economy in 3Q20 grew 4.9 percent YoY, continuing the positive trend from 2Q20, which saw 3.2 percent growth YoY. This expansion can be attributed to the gradual recovery experienced by the private sector, particularly domestic tourism activities that have only recently regained their vi... Read more

12 Oct 2020

Thai Economy

Year-End ‘‘Shop Dee Mee Kuen’’ Stimulus Measure to Bolster Restaurant and IT Product Sales (Current Issue No.3149)

KResearch views that the ‘‘Shop Dee Mee Kuen’’ (Shop and Payback) stimulus measure will likely benefit consumers earning at least THB500,00 per year or approximately THB42,000 per month. According to our behavioral survey, 70.0 percent of the total respondents (who are in the above consumer segment)... Read more

9 Oct 2020

Thai Economy

An Uptick seen in September KR-ECI, thanks to Government’s Economic Stimulus Measures, but Still Below Pre-Covid-19 Levels

The KR-ECI in September 2020 improved slightly over that reported for August 2020, implying that Thai households were more optimistic about their living conditions. The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased in alignment with the gradually recovery seen in economic activities after the government li... Read more

30 Sep 2020

Thai Economy

Household Debt, 2Q20: Rising to 83.8% of GDP as Households Incurred More Debt amid Shrinking Economy (Business Brief No.3887)

According to the Bank of Thailand’s 2Q20 household debt report, Thailand’s outstanding household debt hit an 18-year high of 83.8 percent of GDP, rising from the 80.1 percent of GDP recorded during 1Q20. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, 2Q20 outstanding household debt increased THB92.2 billion, over t... Read more

23 Sep 2020

International Economy

All eyes are on fluctuations in commodity prices...in light of China’s stockpiling policy (Current Issue No.3140)

In September 2020, China sent a positive signal in regard to its economic development plan that laid out the country’s strategies for the next five years, from 2021 through 2025. Of particular interest is China’s return to stockpiling commodities with an emphasis on food security. Such actions will ... Read more

14 Sep 2020

International Economy

Fed set to keep interest rates in a range of 0-0.25% at FOMC meeting Sep. 15-16, having passed a resolution to adjust long-term inflation in the previous month (Business Brief No.3884)

KResearch has assessed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to keep interest rates in a range of 0.0-0.25 percent at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting which will be held on September 15-16, as the Fed is thought to have already used all the tools necessary to sustain the ... Read more

10 Sep 2020

International Economy

Drafting of the UK’s Internal Market Bill set to trigger no-deal Brexit by the end of 2020 (Current Issue No.3133)

Ever since the results of the EU Referendum on June 23, 2016, led to the planned withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, the event that all parties concerned have hoped for is a negotiation to finalize the economic and trade relations between the UK and the EU going forward. However, after th... Read more