Display mode (Doesn't show in master page preview)

Economic Analysis

15 May 2023

Thai Economy

Thai economy grew 2.7% YoY in 1Q23 as expected (Business Brief No.4002 Full Ed.)

Tourism will continue to be a key economic driver ahead despite the risk of global economic slowdown and uncertainty towards the formation of a new Thai government. KResearch maintains its growth forecast for the Thai economy in 2023 at 3.7%. ... Read more

15 May 2023

Thai Economy

Short- to medium-term economic challenges await the new government (Business Brief No.4003)

Implementation of new economic policies promoted in election campaigns would have positive short-term impact on GDP growth, while leading to the challenge of an increased fiscal burden.... Read more

11 Apr 2023

Thai Economy

Fiscal measure via funds transfer (Business Brief No.3998)

Fiscal measure via funds transfer... Read more

10 Apr 2023

Thai Economy

KR-ECI fell in March 2023; Thai households were more concerned about their debt burden

KR-ECI fell in March 2023; Thai households were more concerned about their debt burden ... Read more

7 Apr 2023

Thai Economy

Thailand’s looming super-aged society presents a formidable challenge for business sector and new government (Current Issue No.3398 Full Ed.)

Thailand’s looming super-aged society presents a formidable challenge for business sector and new government... Read more

30 Mar 2023

Thai Economy

Thai exports in 2023 may see a deeper contraction of 1.2 percent, affected by the global economic slowdown (Business Brief No.3996 Full Ed.)

Thai exports in 2023 may see a deeper contraction of 1.2 percent, affected by the global economic slowdown... Read more

20 Mar 2023

International Economy

The FOMC meeting on March 21-22, 2023…The Fed is set to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percent The Fed is also expected to signal the recent US bank collapses will not cause broader systemic woes (Business Brief No.3994)

The FOMC meeting on March 21-22, 2023…The Fed is set to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percent The Fed is also expected to signal the recent US bank collapses will not cause broader systemic woes... Read more

13 Mar 2023

International Economy

The collapse of banks in the US has limited impact on Thailand. However, further developments merit close watch (Current Issue No.3385)

The collapse of banks in the US has limited impact on Thailand. However, further developments merit close watch... Read more

2 Mar 2023

Thai Economy

Thai exports contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January 2023, by 4.5 percent YoY, due to ongoing pressure from the global economic slowdown (Business Brief No.3993)

Thai exports contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January 2023, by 4.5 percent YoY, due to ongoing pressure from the global economic slowdown ... Read more

20 Feb 2023

Thai Economy

Thai economy grew less than expected in 4Q22. KResearch, however, maintains our 2023 growth forecast for the Thai economy at 3.7% (Business Brief No.3992)

Thai economy grew less than expected in 4Q22. KResearch, however, maintains our 2023 growth forecast for the Thai economy at 3.7%, supported chiefly by tourism even as Thai exports will likely be pressured by the slowing global economy... Read more

13 Feb 2023

Thai Economy

KR-ECI in January 2023 improved, driven by the Thai economic recovery, with Thai households’ improved perception towards income and employment

KR-ECI in January 2023 improved, driven by the Thai economic recovery, with Thai households’ improved perception towards income and employment. However, households minimized spending, such as refraining from buying luxury items and reducing energy consumption, amid high cost of living... Read more

27 Jan 2023

International Economy

First FOMC meeting of 2023, January 31 – February 1. Fed may slow its policy rate hike by 0.25% amid easing inflation. However, future US policy rate will chiefly hinge on inflation and other economic data (Business Brief No.3991)

First FOMC meeting of 2023, January 31 – February 1. Fed may slow its policy rate hike by 0.25% amid easing inflation. However, future US policy rate will chiefly hinge on inflation and other economic data ... Read more

25 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Alternatives for the business sector to consider in addressing ESG issues (Business Brief No.3990)

Alternatives for the business sector to consider in addressing ESG issues... Read more

20 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Challenges related to ESG that businesses should watch out for in 2023 (Current Issue No.3382)

In 2023, countries around the world are grappling with economic uncertainty and stagnation, which may in turn affect sustainability or ESG operations of the business sector. ... Read more

17 Jan 2023

International Economy

China’s zero-COVID policy led to its economic growth of only 3.0 percent in 2022, the lowest in more than five decades (Business Brief No.3987)

China’s zero-COVID policy led to its economic growth of only 3.0 percent in 2022, the lowest in more than five decades (Business Brief No.3987)... Read more

13 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Thailand’s 2023 GDP growth projected at 3.7% due to China’s reopening (Business Brief No.3986)

Around 25.5 million foreign tourists set to visit Thailand and Thai exports projected to shrink only 0.5% in 2023, thanks to China’s early reopening while global inflation may decline slower than expected ... Read more

12 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Chinese New Year 2023: Bangkokians’ spending projected to grow for the first time in three years, amid cautious spending (Current Issue No.3381)

Based on its survey findings, KResearch views that Chinese New Year in 2023 will likely see brighter prospects compared to last year, driven by the easing of the COVID-19 situation and the “Shop Dee Mee Khuen” (shop and payback) scheme. However, consumers’ spending behavior must be adjusted to accom... Read more

29 Dec 2022

International Economy

Second year of China-Lao PDR high-speed railway…to benefit from China’s relaxation of zero-Covid measures

While the China-Lao PDR high-speed railway is entering its second year of operation, transport of goods between southern China and ASEAN is expected to become more active. China’s potential reopening following positive signals on gradual relaxation of its zero-COVID measures will generate greater be... Read more

27 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

Thai exports projected to shrink at 1.5% in 2023 amid weak demand in trade partners and declining global commodity prices (Business Brief No.3985)

Thailand’s export growth has slowed down substantially during 2H22 due to a number of factors. These include the high base of 2H21 and a noticeable weakness in demand seen in various export markets. As a result, Thai shipments contracted for the second consecutive month in November 2022 by 6.0 perce... Read more

23 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

The US preliminarily determines that Thai solar cells are circumventing AD/CVD measures…Short-term, limited impact on Thai exports amid looming competition with South Korea (Current Issue No.3376)

The US Department of Commerce announced the results of its preliminary investigation, finding that some Chinese manufacturers had established production bases in four ASEAN countries, including Thailand, in order to circumvent US anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) measures. If fin... Read more

22 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkok residents resume New Year 2023 celebrations, with spending projected to reach THB30.9 billion (Current Issue No.3375)

Due to the fragile recovery seen in income and the high cost of living, consumers continue to be cautious about their spending. However, most of them have resumed outdoor activities, including travelling as COVID-19 has begun to ease. They have also organized celebrations during various festivities ... Read more

21 Dec 2022

International Economy

EU plans to implement CBAM October 1, 2023 (Business Brief No.3983)

Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) have reached an agreement to set up the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective October 1, 2023... Read more

19 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch revises Thailand 2023 GDP forecast to 3.2 percent amid global economic recession while China may reopen relatively soon, though developments merit close watch (Press Conference 19 December 2022)

KResearch revises Thailand 2023 GDP forecast to 3.2 percent amid global economic recession while China may reopen relatively soon, though developments merit close watch (Press Conference 19 December 2022)... Read more

9 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI hit 14-month high in November 2022, but remained below pre-COVID-19 levels. Most households have year-end gathering plans in place

KR-ECI hit 14-month high in November 2022, but remained below pre-COVID-19 levels. Most households have year-end gathering plans in place ... Read more

1 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

NCB’s data show that micro and super micro businesses remain fragile despite economic recovery (Current Issue No.3367)

NCB’s data show that micro and super micro businesses remain fragile despite economic recovery... Read more

29 Nov 2022

International Economy

Post-APEC summit…France actively strengthens relations with Thailand and ASEAN (Current Issue No.3366)

Regarding the 33rd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit hosted by Thailand, the French leader was officially invited as a special guest of the Thai government to attend the forum. During his visit to Thailand, marking the first such visit in 16 years, French President Emmanuel Macron and ... Read more

17 Nov 2022

International Economy

APEC CEO Summit 2022 showcases global visions of business leaders of APEC member economies (Current Issue No.3362)

During APEC 2022, hosted by Thailand, close attention must be paid to the APEC CEO Summit 2022 because it provides leading business leaders of APEC member economies an opportunity to showcase their visions. The program of the APEC CEO Summit focuses on the openness to trade and investment, as well a... Read more

11 Nov 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI remained static in October. Households were still concerned about expenses, income and, employment, plus future savings due to the impact of flooding in many provinces

KR-ECI remained static in October. Households were still concerned about expenses, income and, employment, plus future savings due to the impact of flooding in many provinces ... Read more

10 Nov 2022

International Economy

US 2022 midterm election results set to affect passage of bills in Congress, but unlikely to alter 2023 US economic outlook (Current Issue No.3357)

Preliminary voting results of the US midterm elections, November 8, 2022, show that Republicans have inched closer to a House majority, while control of the Senate hinges on a few tight races. Regardless of whether Democrats can still hold a majority in the Senate, or not when the official voting re... Read more

1 Nov 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, November 1-2, 2022 Fed Funds rate likely be raised by another 0.75% amid increased inflationary pressure and projected slowdown in the US economy (Business Brief No.3981)

KResearch expects that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will consider raising its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, November 1-2, 2022, marking a 0.75 percent policy rate hike for the fourth consecutive meeting. ... Read more

26 Oct 2022

International Economy

Chinese economy grew 3.9% in 3Q22 and 3.0% during 9M22 (Business Brief No.3890)

The Chinese economy grew better-than-expected at 3.9 percent YoY in 3Q22, bettering the 0.4 percent growth reported for 2Q22. During 9M22, the Chinese economy expanded 3.0 percent, buoyed by the relaxation of lockdown measures in major cities such as Shanghai, allowing its manufacturing sector to re... Read more

26 Oct 2022

Thai Economy

Public construction investment to grow in 2022-2023 bolstered by megaprojects, but close attention must be paid to several risk factors (Current Issue No.3353)

Public construction investment to grow in 2022-2023 bolstered by megaprojects, but close attention must be paid to several risk factors ... Read more

11 Oct 2022

Thai Economy

September KR-ECI remained static from the previous month. Flooding presents risk to household income and spending

September KR-ECI remained static from the previous month. Flooding presents risk to household income and spending ... Read more

28 Sep 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch maintains GDP growth projection for 2022 at 2.9 percent and a projected range of 3.2-4.2 percent for 2023; hopes pinned on tourism to mitigate impacts of economic recession among Thailand’s partners (Press Conference 28 September 2022)

KResearch maintains GDP growth projection for 2022 at 2.9 percent and a projected range of 3.2-4.2 percent for 2023; hopes pinned on tourism to mitigate impacts of economic recession among Thailand’s partners ... Read more

21 Sep 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkokians’ spending on Kin Jae to amount to THB 3.2 billion, with reduced number of days of participation and meals consumed, amid rising prices of vegetarian food (Current Issue No.3346)

Due to rising vegetarian food prices in line with higher production costs, and floods damaging agricultural crops that are the main ingredients of vegetarian food, especially vegetables and tofu which typically see price hikes during the Kin Jae festival, the number of Bangkok residents participatin... Read more

20 Sep 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, September 20-21, 2022 Fed is set to raise its policy rate by another 0.75% amid increased inflationary pressures while close attention must be paid to Fed’s various projections (Business Brief No.3978)

It is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for September 20-21, 2022 as the US headline inflation rate for August was still higher than what was expected by the markets although it fel... Read more

19 Sep 2022

International Economy

China’s worst drought in nine years expected to support Thai jasmine rice exports to China for September-December 2022; much will depend on extent of flooding in Thailand (Current Issue No.3345)

China has been severely affected by a heat wave and drought. Although the situation has eased in some areas, the heat wave crisis may persist and affect crops that are to be harvested during the remainder of this year. This would boost imports into China, especially rice, wheat and maize.... Read more

7 Sep 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI recovered for two straight months in August 2022, supported by higher employment and the fact that prices of several products began to increase at a slower rate from the previous month

KR-ECI recovered for two straight months in August 2022, supported by higher employment and the fact that prices of several products began to increase at a slower rate from the previous month... Read more

31 Aug 2022

Thai Economy

The first minimum wage hike in two years, under different economic conditions… cost pass-through by business operators to remain limited in 2022 (Current Issue No.3342)

The tripartite national wage committee has resolved to raise the minimum wage rates for the year 2022, which will be proposed for the Cabinet’s approval to take effect on October 1, 2022. There are nine new minimum wage levels. The lowest rate is THB 328, and the highest is THB 354 (the current rate... Read more

10 Aug 2022

Thai Economy

Households begin adjusting their spending behavior as most of them view that product prices will remain high for at least another year. The KR-ECI for July 2022 improved from its lowest-ever level following a slight drop in oil prices over the past month.

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI in July 2022 improved to 32.5 and 34.0, from their lowest-ever levels at 30.8 and 32.9 reported for June 2022, due to energy prices that were slightly lower than June, albeit remaining high. Additionally, further relaxation of Thailand’s entry restrictions has ... Read more

25 Jul 2022

International Economy

FOMC meeting, July 26-27, 2022 Another 0.75% rate hike likely amid steady increases in inflation while the US economy shows signs of cooling down (Business Brief No.3976)

It is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.75 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for July 26-27, 2022. The latest inflation figure for June hit a record four-decade high of 9.1 percent YoY, prompting the Fed to pl... Read more

16 Jul 2022

International Economy

China’s economy grew by 0.4 percent YoY in 2Q22 and 2.5 percent in 1H22. (Current Issue No.3975)

China’s economy grew by 0.4 percent YoY in 2Q22 and 2.5 percent in 1H22. In the second half of 2022, China’s economy will likely improve but continue to face risks from its zero-COVID policy and ongoing property sector slowdown. For full-year 2022, its economic growth is projected to be in a range o... Read more

7 Jul 2022

Thai Economy

The KR-ECI fell to its lowest-ever level. Although the COVID-19 transition from pandemic to endemic will partly support employment, rising product prices, as reflected by the inflation rate which hit a 14-year high, will continue to pressure the KR-ECI.

The KR-ECI fell to its lowest-ever level. Although the COVID-19 transition from pandemic to endemic will partly support employment, rising product prices, as reflected by the inflation rate which hit a 14-year high, will continue to pressure the KR-ECI. ... Read more

1 Jul 2022

Thai Economy

25th Anniversary of the “Tom Yun Kung” crisis: Current economic situation may not repeat the past (Current Issue No.3330)

July 2, 2022 marks the 25th year after Thailand announced the floating of the Baht in 1997. The decision made at that time was an important turning point in Thailand’s exchange rate regime. Looking into 2022, the Baht is projected to soften in line with other Asian currencies 2022 due to the impact ... Read more

28 Jun 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch upgrades GDP growth forecast to 2.9 percent while Thailand is exposed to risk of tightening food supply (Press Conference 28 June 2022)

KResearch upgrades GDP growth forecast to 2.9 percent while Thailand is exposed to risk of tightening food supply... Read more

24 Jun 2022

International Economy

Yen weakens to a two-decade low...Thai exports to Japan decline 0.6 percent (Current Issue No.3327)

Japan's currency has been weakening and hit a 24-year low at Yen 136.24 per USD (as of June 22, 2022), declining 17.1 percent compared to early 2022. Compared to other major currencies, the Yen saw the steepest depreciation, and has signaled a continued drop throughout the rest of the year. The glob... Read more

13 Jun 2022

International Economy

Fed is expected to raise its policy rate by another 0.50% and continue to send aggressive signals after inflation hit a new four-decade high (Business Brief No.3973)

At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, June 14-15, 2022, it is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.50 percent as earlier signaled. Moreover, it will continue to place emphasis on the inflation risk as hovering inflation will unlikely ease ... Read more

9 Jun 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI fell for the third consecutive month in May as product prices continued to increase while several government relief measures gradually expired

KR-ECI fell for the third consecutive month in May as product prices continued to increase while several government relief measures gradually expired ... Read more

10 May 2022

Thai Economy

New school year 2022: Education expenses set to rise 2.0 percent, with estimated value of THB 26.90 billion (Current Issue No.3324)

As the COVID-19 situation eases, students will be returning to study onsite per normal circumstances, with schools set to reopen on May 17. Generally, at this time of year, parents must assume the burden of their children’s education expenses. While the prices of energy and various goods have risen ... Read more

10 May 2022

Thai Economy

April KR-ECI has remained low for two straight months amid elevated goods prices. Economic and living conditions of households are still fragile after the government scrapped subsidies for several necessities such as fuels and cooking gas

April KR-ECI has remained low for two straight months amid elevated goods prices. Economic and living conditions of households are still fragile after the government scrapped subsidies for several necessities such as fuels and cooking gas ... Read more

30 Apr 2022

International Economy

Fed to raise policy rate by another 0.50% to stem inflation…A move that will drive up the US dollar ahead (Business Brief No.3970)

As previously signaled, it is expected that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate by another 0.50 percent at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, May 3-4, 2022, with the aim of combating elevated inflation. The Fed may continue to place emphasis on maintaining price sta... Read more

18 Apr 2022

International Economy

China’s economy grew 4.8% YoY in 1Q22 (Business Brief No.3969)

China’s economy grew 4.8 percent YoY and 1.3 percent QoQ in the first quarter of 2022 amid pressing issues. Details concerning China’s economic growth in 1Q22 are as follows... Read more

11 Apr 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI declined in March as households were still concerned about rising product costs

KR-ECI declined in March as households were still concerned about rising product costs... Read more

8 Apr 2022

Thai Economy

Songkran 2022: Price promotion campaigns and changes in behavior limits growth of tourism spending (Current Issue No.3321)

Every year, the Songkran festival is a time when Thais return to their home provinces to celebrate the Thai New Year with their families, while others go on day trips or overnight stays.... Read more

30 Mar 2022

Thai Economy

High cost of living prompts Bangkok residents to cut spending during Songkran Festival in 2022 (Current Issue No.3317)

KResearch is of the view that spending by Bangkok residents during the upcoming Songkran Festival 2022 will reach THB23.4 billion, a decline of 2.5 percent YoY, as they intend to spend less on all activities due to the rising cost of living, driven by inflation. Most of the Bangkok city dwellers wil... Read more