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4 Mar 2026

Thai Economy

Prolonged Middle East conflict could hit Thailand’s economy by more than 0.6% (Business Brief No.4247 Full Ed.)

คะแนนเฉลี่ย
  • The attack known as “Operation Epic Fury”, on February 28, 2026, saw the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and triggered a crisis marked by violent military retaliation across the region. This has resulted in disruptions to major oil and gas production sites. Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created severe disruptions in key energy transportation routes that are nearly impossible to replace. 
  • KResearch assesses that if the situation persists for more than three months, which is an increasingly likely outcome, the average crude oil price could rise to USD 80 per barrel. This would reduce Thailand’s GDP by 0.6 percent and push headline inflation up by approximately 1 percent compared to the baseline scenario, primarily driven by the impact on energy costs, tourism, and exports. 
  • Furthermore, this is expected to impact Thailand’s external stability through a declining current account balance. This factor, combined with safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, may exert downward pressure on the Thai Baht, leading to increased volatility and depreciation risks.

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