1 Jul 2022
Thai Economy
July 2, 2022 marks the 25th year after Thailand announced the floating of the Baht in 1997. The decision made at that time was an important turning point in Thailand’s exchange rate regime. Looking into 2022, the Baht is projected to soften in line with other Asian currencies 2022 due to the impact of the US dollar, particularly the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy tightening. The softening Baht currently differs from that seen in 1997 because its depreciation then was due to the floating of the Thai currency to reflect its weak fundamentals at that time. Additionally, the Baht’s volatility in 2022 is almost consistent with the overall picture of other Asian currencies, suggesting the Bank of Thailand’s continuing efforts in maintaining the Baht’s stability amid uncertainties surrounding many factors.... Read more
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21 Dec 2021
KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for December 22, 2021, amid heightened risk due to the Omicron variant of COVID-19. As a result, the number of international tourist arrivals in Thailand may be lower than previously forecast. Consumer confidence will also tend to be affected, as economic activity once more faces disruption amid multiple risk factors. ... Read more
16 Aug 2021
The Thai economy in 1H21 grew more than previously assessed, as seen from economic indicators in 2Q21 which rose 7.5 percent YoY, mainly due to a low base effect and accelerated export growth. As a result, the Thai economy grew 2.0 percent YoY during the first half of 2021. However, the Thai economy expanded only 0.4 percent QoQ, which indicates that it still has a weakened momentum owing to the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. ... Read more
15 Jul 2021
We, at KResearch, have decided to revise downward our 2021 growth forecast for the Thai economy to 1.0 percent, from a prior estimate of 1.8 percent, because the impact of COVID-19 on the economy has become more severe than previously assessed. Due to limitations of the Thai public health system, more stringent COVID-19 containment measures have been implemented. Such measures have further affected the business sector and employment and in turn the purchasing power and confidence of consumers. Meanwhile, the government’s relief measures, which are expected to help alleviate consumers’ financial burdens, have failed to offset the impact of COVID-19 on the overall economy. ... Read more
29 Jun 2021
The government has announced partial lockdown measures, including the prohibition of construction work, primarily at large construction projects for at least 30 days in the maximum and strict controlled zones (dark red) of six provinces, namely Bangkok, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Samut Prakan and Samut Sakhon, plus sales of F&B at restaurants, with the exception of takeaways, effective June 28, 2021. Moreover, it has introduced relief measures that are preliminarily worth THB7.5 billion for both employers and employees in and outside of the social security system. Such attempts reflect the government’s intent to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and compensate related losses as much as possible. ... Read more
10 Jun 2021
KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) has kept its Thai economic projection for 2021 unchanged at 1.8 percent. The research house views that the Thai economy remains mired in uncertainty due to the persistence of COVID-19 both domestically and abroad, as well as vaccination progress. In the next 1-2 months, vaccination progress and COVID outlook should become more apparent. If vaccinations can continue at a fast pace, household and business confidence would improve, and accelerating economic growth in Q4/2021 would be more likely.... Read more
18 May 2021
The Thai economy in 1Q21 shrank 2.6 percent YoY, less than the market forecast of -3.3 percent. This smaller-than-expected contraction was mainly driven by the global economic recovery and domestic stimulus packages, with Thai exports starting to exhibit strong signs of recovery in line with the economic rebound worldwide. Meanwhile, the current outbreak of COVID-19 – which remains out of control – continues to have massive impacts on consumption and the Thai tourism industry, despite positive factors from economic stimulus and relief measures to boost purchasing power among households affected by the pandemic, including the “We Win” financial aid scheme, the “Let’s Go Halves” co-payment program and the “Section 33 We Love Each Other” cash handout project.... Read more
20 Apr 2021
Due to the impact of the latest wave of COVID-19, KResearch projects that the Thai economy will grow at a slow rate of only 1.8 percent in 2021, against our prior estimate of 2.6 percent. We are of the view that the current COVID-19 pandemic in the country is much worse than the previous one. Additionally, despite less stringent containment measures, increased concern over the domestic COVID-19 situation has prompted consumers to adjust their behavior, and dampened their confidence, resulting in lower household consumption than our previous estimate. However, our new economic forecast takes into account positive factors, including better-than-expected export growth as the global economy has bounced back faster than anticipated, and the Thai government’s ongoing economic stimulus measures, ... Read more
15 Feb 2021
The Thai economy in 2020 shrank less than expected due to the support of the government’s stimulus packages. In 2020, the Thai economy contracted by 6.1 percent, which is slightly less severe than KResearch’s projection of -6.7 percent. The smaller-than-expected contraction can be primarily attributed to the government’s stimulus measures, particularly the “Let’s Go Halves” ... Read more
22 Dec 2020
Thailand recently reported a new wave of COVID-19 at a shrimp market in Samut Sakhon, which has led to a lockdown in this province from December 19, 2020 to January 3, 2021 as well as some cases in other provinces. Preliminarily, if no clusters of infections are found in more provinces or a broad-based lockdown is not imposed in the country again, ... Read more
16 Nov 2020
The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2020 contracted by less than the consensus forecast of -8.0 percent YoY. The satisfactory recovery of economic activity in 3Q20 can be attributed in part to pent-up demand after the relaxation of lockdowns across many countries, including Thailand. The less-than-expected contraction in exports wherein KResearch has revised down its growth projection from -12% to -7.0%, and improved public spending in both consumption and investment have mainly contributed to a less-than-expected contraction of the Thai economy in 3Q20. ... Read more
28 Aug 2020
KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) views that the Thai economy may have seen its trough in the second quarter on a QoQ basis. GDP for 2020 is projected to see a 10-percent contraction. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is likely to show a U-shaped recovery compared to the same period of last year. The food and beverage, electrical appliance, hotel and restaurant sectors are still cause for concern.... Read more
17 Aug 2020
The Thai economy in 2Q20 shrank by -12.2 percent YoY, a lesser decline than the market expectations of -13.0 to -17.0 percent YoY, due to a resurgence in government spending and investment in 2Q20. This surge occurred amid the issuance of several stimulus packages, in particular the relief measure under the “Stronger Together” program which saw cash handouts of THB 5,000 distributed to those in need for three consecutive months during 2Q20. Meanwhile, the annual rate of budget disbursement in 2Q20, including current expenditure and capital expenditure, was higher compared to the same period from the previous year. Such growth in government investment has led to further expansion of the construction industry in 2Q20. KResearch assesses that the Thai economy will likely see the sharpest contraction in 2Q20 and continue to shrink gradually for the remainder of the year. ... Read more
6 Mar 2020
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is set to be severe and spread broadly around the globe after new infections outside of China, in particular South Korea, Italy and Iran have surged. So far, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has reached more than 90,000 in over 70 countries and territories worldwide.... Read more
17 Feb 2020
The Thai economic performance, which has already been plagued by the ongoing trade war, anemic global economy and severe drought in the country, is being further undermined by the current COVID-19 outbreak. Given this, Thailand’s GDP grew at less than our prior estimates at 1.6 percent p.a. during 4Q19 and 2.4 percent in 2019. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, domestic economic activities have deteriorated rapidly, with tourism receipts plunging approximately THB220 billion. The Thai export and import sectors, with supply chains closely linked with China, have also been adversely affected by production suspension seen in most factories in China. As a result, GPD growth will likely be stagnant during 1Q20. ... Read more
31 Jan 2020
New risks to the Thai economy have been seen. These include the novel coronavirus outbreak, which will likely hurt tourism receipts and a likelihood that the enforcement of the 2020 Budget Act will be delayed, thus preventing the government to use fiscal tools to fully steer the Thai economy. In addition, drought is dampening farm income while the government’s investment budget is being held up due to the delayed 2050 fiscal budget. ... Read more
18 Nov 2019
The Thai economic performance remained lackluster in 3Q19 due to a number of factors. These include the anemic global economy, partly as a result of the prolonged trade war, while the strong Baht continued to undermine the pricing competitiveness of Thai exports amid limited growth in public and private investment. However, household spending continued to support the Thai economy. Looking into 4Q19, we at KResearch expect that the Thai economy will exhibit almost the same picture as in 3Q19, though it will likely be driven by additional economic stimuli introduced by the government, with the aim of sustaining household spending, and steady recovery in the number of international tourist arrivals overall. As a result, 4Q19 GDP will likely improve over that seen in 3Q19, but this may not be sufficient to support 2019 economy to grow on a par with our prior estimate of 2.8 percent. We are of the view that 2019 GDP growth may lean towards the lower end of our projection band at not less than 2.5 percent.... Read more
9 Oct 2019
The Cabinet, September 10, 2019, approved the 1,000-Baht cash handout as part of the government’s “Chim Shop Chai (Taste Shop Use)” program to stimulate domestic tourism, effective September 27 - November 30, 2019. Currently, a large number of people has begun to spend the cash giveaway in provinces where they signed up to the program. KResearch has conducted a survey on spending behavior of Thai households that have registered with phase 1 of the “Chim Shop Chai” program and the findings are as follows:... Read more
20 Aug 2019
Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)... Read more
21 May 2019
The Thai economy grew at the slowest pace in 17 quarters of 2.8 percent p.a. in 1Q19, lower than the consensus estimate at 3.2 percent, dampened by shrinking exports amid a steady slowdown in the global economy and impacts of the trade war. However, domestic spending and private investment overall continued to support the Thai economy. It is expected that such a growth momentum will continue into 2Q19, buoyed by household spending as a result of mid-year economic stimuli, though close attention must be paid to drought, which may last until July, thus hurting farm income during this quarter.... Read more
18 Feb 2019
The Thai economy grew 3.7 percent YoY in 4Q18, increasing over that reported for 3Q18, thanks to easing external risks and continuing growth seen in domestic spending. The trade war continued to cause 4Q18 exports to expand at a slower pace from 3Q18. Many Asian economies were also affected by the trade war. Meanwhile, Thai tourism bounced back in 4Q18, thus helping ease external risks.... Read more
19 Nov 2018
The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2018 expanded 3.3 percent YoY, which is the lowest recorded growth rate of this year and also lower than the market expectation of 4.1-percent growth due mainly to external economic factors. Meanwhile, there were positive signals in domestic consumption, including household spending and private investment.... Read more
20 Aug 2018
The Thai economy grew at an average of 4.8 percent p.a. during 1H18, supported by steady GDP growth of 4.6 percent p.a. in 2Q18. Domestic spending began to support the Thai economy in addition to exports and tourism amid rising agricultural supplies.... Read more
6 Jul 2018
Looking ahead, close attention must be paid to the ongoing trade war. If it persists beyond 2018, our real economic sector could be undermined over the next 2-4 years. Moreover, due to the cyclical upturn in interest rates, concerns may shift toward internal stability, in particular when Thailand is plagued by hefty commercial and household debt, which may lead to systematic risk in the future. ... Read more
21 May 2018
The Thai economy in 1Q18 rose to a record 5-year high at 4.8 percent YoY, driven by booming export and tourism sectors. At the same time, housing spending began to show positive signs, picking up momentum from the previous quarter. Additionally, agricultural production has dramatically increased, becoming a major driver for GDP growth in 1Q18. ... Read more
22 Jan 2018
In 3Q17, Thailand's household debt fell from 78.4 percent of GDP – as recorded in 2Q17 – to 78.3 percent of GDP, which could be the res... Read more
20 Nov 2017
The Thai economy rose 4.3 percent YoY in 3Q17, bettering the consensus survey that estimated 3.8 percent YoY. While external sectors were... Read more
29 Sep 2017
Based on the latest data released by the Bank of Thailand, Thai household debt is continuing to demonstrate a decelerating trend for the si... Read more
21 Aug 2017
The Thai economy performed better than expected in 1H17. The 2Q17 GDP surged 3.7 percent, outshining initial market expectations (consensus... Read more
2 Aug 2017
We at KResearch have preliminary assessed that direct economic losses from the extensive flooding in many northeastern provinces, e.... Read more
30 Jun 2017
Household debt, as reported by the Bank of Thailand (BOT), increased to THB11.48 trillion at the end of 1Q17, up 3.1 percent YoY. This figure, howe... Read more
15 May 2017
High growth in agricultural and export sectors, as well as household consumption, helped bolster Thailand's 1Q17 GDP to achieve good 3.3 percent gr... Read more
20 Feb 2017
The Thai economy recorded 3.2 percent growth in 2016, close to our KResearch estimate. Exports gained momentum and, once again, became a major contr... Read more
30 Dec 2016
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