28 Aug 2020
Thai Economy
KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) views that the Thai economy may have seen its trough in the second quarter on a QoQ basis. GDP for 2020 is projected to see a 10-percent contraction. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is likely to show a U-shaped recovery compared to the same period of last year. The food and beverage, electrical appliance, hotel and restaurant sectors are still cause for concern.... Read more
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17 Aug 2020
The Thai economy in 2Q20 shrank by -12.2 percent YoY, a lesser decline than the market expectations of -13.0 to -17.0 percent YoY, due to a resurgence in government spending and investment in 2Q20. This surge occurred amid the issuance of several stimulus packages, in particular the relief measure under the “Stronger Together” program which saw cash handouts of THB 5,000 distributed to those in need for three consecutive months during 2Q20. Meanwhile, the annual rate of budget disbursement in 2Q20, including current expenditure and capital expenditure, was higher compared to the same period from the previous year. Such growth in government investment has led to further expansion of the construction industry in 2Q20. KResearch assesses that the Thai economy will likely see the sharpest contraction in 2Q20 and continue to shrink gradually for the remainder of the year. ... Read more
6 Mar 2020
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is set to be severe and spread broadly around the globe after new infections outside of China, in particular South Korea, Italy and Iran have surged. So far, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has reached more than 90,000 in over 70 countries and territories worldwide.... Read more
17 Feb 2020
The Thai economic performance, which has already been plagued by the ongoing trade war, anemic global economy and severe drought in the country, is being further undermined by the current COVID-19 outbreak. Given this, Thailand’s GDP grew at less than our prior estimates at 1.6 percent p.a. during 4Q19 and 2.4 percent in 2019. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, domestic economic activities have deteriorated rapidly, with tourism receipts plunging approximately THB220 billion. The Thai export and import sectors, with supply chains closely linked with China, have also been adversely affected by production suspension seen in most factories in China. As a result, GPD growth will likely be stagnant during 1Q20. ... Read more
31 Jan 2020
New risks to the Thai economy have been seen. These include the novel coronavirus outbreak, which will likely hurt tourism receipts and a likelihood that the enforcement of the 2020 Budget Act will be delayed, thus preventing the government to use fiscal tools to fully steer the Thai economy. In addition, drought is dampening farm income while the government’s investment budget is being held up due to the delayed 2050 fiscal budget. ... Read more
18 Nov 2019
The Thai economic performance remained lackluster in 3Q19 due to a number of factors. These include the anemic global economy, partly as a result of the prolonged trade war, while the strong Baht continued to undermine the pricing competitiveness of Thai exports amid limited growth in public and private investment. However, household spending continued to support the Thai economy. Looking into 4Q19, we at KResearch expect that the Thai economy will exhibit almost the same picture as in 3Q19, though it will likely be driven by additional economic stimuli introduced by the government, with the aim of sustaining household spending, and steady recovery in the number of international tourist arrivals overall. As a result, 4Q19 GDP will likely improve over that seen in 3Q19, but this may not be sufficient to support 2019 economy to grow on a par with our prior estimate of 2.8 percent. We are of the view that 2019 GDP growth may lean towards the lower end of our projection band at not less than 2.5 percent.... Read more
9 Oct 2019
The Cabinet, September 10, 2019, approved the 1,000-Baht cash handout as part of the government’s “Chim Shop Chai (Taste Shop Use)” program to stimulate domestic tourism, effective September 27 - November 30, 2019. Currently, a large number of people has begun to spend the cash giveaway in provinces where they signed up to the program. KResearch has conducted a survey on spending behavior of Thai households that have registered with phase 1 of the “Chim Shop Chai” program and the findings are as follows:... Read more
20 Aug 2019
Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)... Read more
21 May 2019
The Thai economy grew at the slowest pace in 17 quarters of 2.8 percent p.a. in 1Q19, lower than the consensus estimate at 3.2 percent, dampened by shrinking exports amid a steady slowdown in the global economy and impacts of the trade war. However, domestic spending and private investment overall continued to support the Thai economy. It is expected that such a growth momentum will continue into 2Q19, buoyed by household spending as a result of mid-year economic stimuli, though close attention must be paid to drought, which may last until July, thus hurting farm income during this quarter.... Read more
18 Feb 2019
The Thai economy grew 3.7 percent YoY in 4Q18, increasing over that reported for 3Q18, thanks to easing external risks and continuing growth seen in domestic spending. The trade war continued to cause 4Q18 exports to expand at a slower pace from 3Q18. Many Asian economies were also affected by the trade war. Meanwhile, Thai tourism bounced back in 4Q18, thus helping ease external risks.... Read more
19 Nov 2018
The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2018 expanded 3.3 percent YoY, which is the lowest recorded growth rate of this year and also lower than the market expectation of 4.1-percent growth due mainly to external economic factors. Meanwhile, there were positive signals in domestic consumption, including household spending and private investment.... Read more
20 Aug 2018
The Thai economy grew at an average of 4.8 percent p.a. during 1H18, supported by steady GDP growth of 4.6 percent p.a. in 2Q18. Domestic spending began to support the Thai economy in addition to exports and tourism amid rising agricultural supplies.... Read more
6 Jul 2018
Looking ahead, close attention must be paid to the ongoing trade war. If it persists beyond 2018, our real economic sector could be undermined over the next 2-4 years. Moreover, due to the cyclical upturn in interest rates, concerns may shift toward internal stability, in particular when Thailand is plagued by hefty commercial and household debt, which may lead to systematic risk in the future. ... Read more
21 May 2018
The Thai economy in 1Q18 rose to a record 5-year high at 4.8 percent YoY, driven by booming export and tourism sectors. At the same time, housing spending began to show positive signs, picking up momentum from the previous quarter. Additionally, agricultural production has dramatically increased, becoming a major driver for GDP growth in 1Q18. ... Read more
22 Jan 2018
In 3Q17, Thailand's household debt fell from 78.4 percent of GDP – as recorded in 2Q17 – to 78.3 percent of GDP, which could be the res... Read more
20 Nov 2017
The Thai economy rose 4.3 percent YoY in 3Q17, bettering the consensus survey that estimated 3.8 percent YoY. While external sectors were... Read more
29 Sep 2017
Based on the latest data released by the Bank of Thailand, Thai household debt is continuing to demonstrate a decelerating trend for the si... Read more
21 Aug 2017
The Thai economy performed better than expected in 1H17. The 2Q17 GDP surged 3.7 percent, outshining initial market expectations (consensus... Read more
2 Aug 2017
We at KResearch have preliminary assessed that direct economic losses from the extensive flooding in many northeastern provinces, e.... Read more
30 Jun 2017
Household debt, as reported by the Bank of Thailand (BOT), increased to THB11.48 trillion at the end of 1Q17, up 3.1 percent YoY. This figure, howe... Read more
15 May 2017
High growth in agricultural and export sectors, as well as household consumption, helped bolster Thailand's 1Q17 GDP to achieve good 3.3 percent gr... Read more
20 Feb 2017
The Thai economy recorded 3.2 percent growth in 2016, close to our KResearch estimate. Exports gained momentum and, once again, became a major contr... Read more
30 Dec 2016
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