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30 Sep 2015

Thai Economy

3Q15 GDP Expands 2.8% YoY (Economic Brief No.3577 Full Ed.)

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Nearly all of Thailand's August economic indicators reflected persistent year-on-year contractions across sectors, particularly exports, industrial manufacturing and farm produce that had slid more deeply than in July. However, some private sector spending indicators (e.g., on semi-durable goods and capital goods imports) showed slight expansion. This may indicate improving domestic spending that has not yet appeared extensively.
A slow global economic recovery, domestic drought, as well as lower purchasing power and weak business sentiment are unquestionably hindering supportive effects from expansion in tourism and public spending. As a result, KResearch has assessed that the current economy is only sustaining momentum while awaiting positive impacts from recent government's economic stimuli that may become more evident in 4Q15.

As for the economic outlook for 2H15, KResearch is of the view that marginal signals and slow recoveries in various sectors that we witnessed in July and August indicators—especially a worse-than-expected slump in exports—and an unclear global economic growth trend in September that will likely pressure our 3Q15 GDP to grow by only 2.8 percent YoY, weaker than earlier expected. However, an over-quarter recovery in 4Q15 should be achievable, thanks to those stimuli released during 3Q15, plus accelerated government budgetary disbursements and project investments.

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