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Economic Analysis

9 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

Households View that Phase 1 of “Chim Shop Chai” Program Helps Reduce Cost of Living, but More Assistance Measures Needed (Business Brief No.3824)

The Cabinet, September 10, 2019, approved the 1,000-Baht cash handout as part of the government’s “Chim Shop Chai (Taste Shop Use)” program to stimulate domestic tourism, effective September 27 - November 30, 2019. Currently, a large number of people has begun to spend the cash giveaway in provinces... Read more

1 Oct 2019

Thai Economy

2Q19 Household Debt to GDP Remained Static at 78.7% with Debt Growing Faster than the Economy (Business Brief No.3823)

Outstanding household debt grew at a slower pace of 5.8 percent YoY in 2Q19 after hitting a four- year high of 6.3 percent YoY reported for 1Q19 due partly to the slowdown in home loans following the enforcement of LTV measure in April 2019. Personal home loans (extended by commercial banks, special... Read more

30 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

Toxic dust particles are back in Greater Bangkok: Opportunity cost from health-related issues is estimated at THB700-800 million during the 1 -2 week period (Current Issue No.3036)

Toxic smog is back as dust particles exceeding the so-called safe level have blanketed Bangkok and its perimeter. It is a result of stagnate weather. Nonetheless, the recurrence of hazardous smog in the capital this time prompts more concerns as it seems to be more severe than the haze early this ye... Read more

24 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

Spending on Kin Jae 2019 in BKK expected at THB4.76 billion; economy prompts people to curb spending (Current Issue No.3034)

The annual Kin Jae festival is helping feed Bangkok residents’ growing appetite for vegetarian food, with the participating population rising from 57.1 percent to 66.7 percent this year, reflecting a trend towards healthier lifestyles among the new generation. People are also eating less frequently ... Read more

9 Sep 2019

Thai Economy

August KR-ECI Increased Slightly, Thanks to Ebbing Energy Costs, Rising Farm Income and Government Measures

The KR-ECI came in at 41.9 for August, increasing slightly over 41.5 reported in July because Thai households were less concerned about domestic goods and service prices amid falling energy costs. The rise was also attributable to the fact that some households were less anxious about income and empl... Read more

20 Aug 2019

Thai Economy

Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)

Thai GDP growth in 2019 may slide below initial projections of 3.1%, while external risk factors may prompt the government to implement more stimulus to boost growth (Business Brief No.3814)... Read more

8 Aug 2019

Thai Economy

Household Concerns on Thai Economy pull KR-ECI for July 19 to 66-month low

The KR-ECI slipped for the second month in a row from 43.1 in June to 41.5 in July 2019, which is the lowest level in 66 months, owing to household concerns on all economic aspects, particularly the issues of income and employment, expenses and debt burdens.... Read more

12 Jul 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Fell in June Thai Households Tighten Spending …Challenge for New Government

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 43.1 and 44.9 in June because Thai households were more concerned about economic conditions and their cost of living now and in the future, in particular domestic prices of goods, expenses (excluding debt), income and employment. ... Read more

13 Jun 2019

Thai Economy

2019 Mid-Year Economic Stimuli, aimed at Promoting Domestic Spending, Helped Push KR-ECI Up Slightly in May 2019

The KR-ECI increased slightly to 43.7 in May 2019 over the reading of 43.5 reported for April 2019, thanks to 2019 mid-year economic stimuli that directly and indirectly helped ease the high cost of living of Thai households somewhat. In addition, some households were less anxious about debt because... Read more

21 May 2019

Thai Economy

2019 Thai Economy May Grow Lower-than-Expected at 3.7% due to Numerous Challenges Foreseen in 2H19 (Business Brief No.3801)

The Thai economy grew at the slowest pace in 17 quarters of 2.8 percent p.a. in 1Q19, lower than the consensus estimate at 3.2 percent, dampened by shrinking exports amid a steady slowdown in the global economy and impacts of the trade war. However, domestic spending and private investment overall c... Read more

13 May 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in April 2019 as Many Factors Affected Living Conditions of Thai Households

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 43.5 and 45.7 in April 2019 because households were more concerned about their living conditions, including income, employment, prices of goods and services, expenditures and debt. ... Read more

8 May 2019

Thai Economy

Survey on Economic Confidence after General Election Shows that Most Thais Do Not Change their Views on Thai Economy (Current Issue No.2989)

KResearch conducted a survey on the confidence of Thai households and entrepreneurs towards the Thai economy before and after the 2019 general election on March 25 and April 3, 2019. The poll shows that Thai households and entrepreneurs surveyed have changed their views towards the Thai economy afte... Read more

7 May 2019

Thai Economy

Parents in Bangkok Metropolitan Area are expected to spend around THB28.2 billion to get their children ready for school year 2019 (Current Issue No.2986)

During the back-to-school season, consumers with school-age children normally have higher expenditures associated with their children’s education. KResearch’s survey finds that over 54.2 percent of parents are concerned about the amount of their cash flow to spend during the 2019 semester; however, ... Read more

12 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Increased spending before the election boosts income of trading households KR-ECI up slightly in March 2019

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

3 Apr 2019

Thai Economy

Songkran 2019: Spending in BKK to reach THB25 billion Hot weather affects spending lifestyle of each generation (Current Issue No.2976)

KResearch projects that during the Songkran Festival in 2019, Bangkokians will spend THB25 billion, up 3.6 percent from the previous year. Of the total, THB9.6 billion will be spent on party supplies (food and beverages), THB6.65 billion on accommodation/travel, THB4.6 billion on shopping, THB2.05 b... Read more

14 Mar 2019

Thai Economy

February KR-ECI Edged Up because Households Were Less Worried about Spending, Reflecting Gradual Recovery in Private Consumption

KResearch views that issues that must be monitored closely in 2019. These include drought, which has arrived early and is expected to last longer than the previous year, because it will affect farm income and the cost of living of households resulting from higher raw food prices. Another issue is th... Read more

18 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Thailand Reported 3.7% GDP Growth in 4Q18 due to Easing External Risks 2019 Economic Growth Projected at 4.0% (Business Brief No.3788)

The Thai economy grew 3.7 percent YoY in 4Q18, increasing over that reported for 3Q18, thanks to easing external risks and continuing growth seen in domestic spending. The trade war continued to cause 4Q18 exports to expand at a slower pace from 3Q18. Many Asian economies were also affected by the t... Read more

12 Feb 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok’s Dust Pollution Revised Upward to THB14.5 Billion (Current Issue No.2965)

The level of ultrafine dust particles exceeding safety standards in Greater Bangkok is expected to prolong until March 2019. Given this, KResearch has revised our forecast of its effect on the Thai economy in terms of opportunity costs incurred from health and tourism related issues, as well as othe... Read more

15 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

Economic Costs of Bangkok Air Pollution Preliminarily Estimated to be at Least THB2.6 Billion (Current Issue No.2955)

Greater Bangkok was last hit by the high level of hazardous dust particles at the end of 2017 through to the beginning of 2018. Air pollution blanketed capital again in January 2019, with the prospect of prolonged unhealthy air quality levels . This problem and the impacts of global warming or clima... Read more

11 Jan 2019

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Increased for 3 Straight Months in December 2018 Thai Households Enjoyed more Income amid Ebbing Cost of Living

• The KR-ECI conducted nationwide rose to 46.0 percent in December 2018 because some Thai households got extra income while the cost of living was declining in line with raw food prices and energy costs. • The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased to 47.6 in December because households spent les... Read more

20 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

2019 inflation will likely slow to 0.8% Shaped by weather conditions, energy and utility prices (Business Brief No.3778)

KResearch maintains our estimate of Headline Inflation in 2018 at 1.1 percent, compared to the 0.7-percent pace of 2017, as a result of rising energy prices and housing rents amid contracting prices of fresh food following a large quantity of supplies in the market.... Read more

12 Dec 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Up in November due to Ebbing Energy Prices

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI improved in November due to ebbing energy prices and new government measures, aimed at assisting low-income earners and farmers. The KR-ECI rose to 45.7 in November over 45.3 reported for October and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI (December 2018-February 2019) cam... Read more

19 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3Q18 GDP growth: Lower-than-expected and lowest in 2018 due to external economic factors (Business Brief No.3772)

The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2018 expanded 3.3 percent YoY, which is the lowest recorded growth rate of this year and also lower than the market expectation of 4.1-percent growth due mainly to external economic factors. Meanwhile, there were positive signals in domestic consumption, incl... Read more

15 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

Higher Growth Potential of Public Construction in 2019, Buoyed by Mega Projects (Current Issue No.2937)

A number of infrastructure projects have exhibited satisfactory progress after the government’s announcement of an action plan to expedite large infrastructure investments in 2016-2018 with an important impetus being the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) program with THB trillions of investment. Compl... Read more

14 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3-month Expected KR-ECI Improves Households Are Optimistic toward Future Income

​The 3-month Expected KR-ECI edged up slightly to 46.9 in October over 46.5 reported for September. This is because households were more optimistic toward income and employment over the next three months (November 2018 - January 2019) partly as a result of the fact that non-farm households that wi... Read more

22 Oct 2018

Thai Economy

Thai exports in September 2018 contract 5.2% ... due to factors including bigger impact from the escalated trade war (Business Brief No.3768)

Thai export growth in September 2018 recorded the first drop in 19 months due partly to a sharp decline in gold exports as a result of a high base effect last year and volatility of the gold market. After an exclusion of gold export value, which contracted 78.7 percent YoY, Thai exports shrank sligh... Read more

5 Oct 2018

Thai Economy

2019 Inflation Projected to Increase by 0.7-1.1% Amid Surging Global Crude Oil Prices, Though the Figure Will Depend on Government Policy of Supervising Energy (Current Issue No.2930)

2019 Inflation Projected to Increase by 0.7-1.1% Amid Surging Global Crude Oil Prices, Though the Figure Will Depend on Government Policy of Supervising Energy (Current Issue No.2930)... Read more

21 Sep 2018

Thai Economy

2018 Kin Jae festival is expected to generate THB4.65 billion in BKK with healthy diet being the main reason to attract customers (Current Issue No.2927)

Kin Jae (vegetarian) is one of the main festivals that food and beverages suppliers and distributors, including fine restaurants, street food vendors, convenience stores and online operators, have paid attention as this annual event is one of the best periods to boost their sales and expand their cu... Read more

20 Aug 2018

Thai Economy

1H18 Economy Recorded Surprising Growth, Aided by Domestic Spending … 2018 GDP Projected to Expand at Least 4.5% (Business Brief No.3756)

The Thai economy grew at an average of 4.8 percent p.a. during 1H18, supported by steady GDP growth of 4.6 percent p.a. in 2Q18. Domestic spending began to support the Thai economy in addition to exports and tourism amid rising agricultural supplies.... Read more

10 Aug 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI in July edges up for the first time in 6 months in anticipation of better income and job opportunities

KR-ECI in July 2018 edged up for the first time in 6 months from 44.7 in June to 45.1 due to household anticipation of better income and employment, in addition to their easing concerns about prices of products and services in the country. The 3-month Expected KR-ECI slip... Read more

6 Jul 2018

Thai Economy

Thailand’s External Stability Remains Solid to Brace for Volatility of Capital Outflows … Eyeing Heightened Volatility from Trade War (Current Issue No. 2918)

Looking ahead, close attention must be paid to the ongoing trade war. If it persists beyond 2018, our real economic sector could be undermined over the next 2-4 years. Moreover, due to the cyclical upturn in interest rates, concerns may shift toward internal stability, in particular when Thailand is... Read more

29 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

Thai Household Debt Rose 5.2% YoY in 1Q18 In line with increasing retail lending of commercial banks (Business Brief No.3750)

According to Bank of Thailand data on household borrowing in 1Q18, the ratio of household debt to GDP dropped from 78.0 percent in 4Q17 to 77.6 percent (while the seasonally adjusted figure stood at 77.7 percent). However, the outstanding household debt in 1Q18 stepped up to THB12.17 billion, or 5.2... Read more

12 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

KR-ECI Declined in May due to Rising Cost of Living Driven by Energy Prices But Income and Employment Improved

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI slipped to 44.9 and 46.2 for May chiefly because of substantial increases in the domestic prices of goods and services, in particular energy. Household income and employment, however, improved, due in part to continuing recovery in the Thai economy and higher f... Read more

1 Jun 2018

Thai Economy

Inflation accelerated to 1.49% in May given high energy prices 2H18 pace may ease due to last year’s high base of comparison (Business Brief No.3745)

Head line inflation in May 2018 accelerated to 1.49 percent, mainly on the back of domestic energy prices that had risen in line with the uptrend of global crude oil prices to nearly USD80/barrel. If global crude oil prices are within the range of USD70-80/barrel over the remainder of 2018, Thailand... Read more

22 May 2018

Thai Economy

April Exports Post 14th Month of High Growth Full-Year Growth Expected at 8% (Business Brief No.3743)

Thailand’s global trade value in April 2018 dropped into negative territory, with a trade deficit of USD1.283 billion – the highest in 43 months. This was due to an import expansion of 20.4 percent YoY, partly caused by surging oil prices in world markets and accelerated imports of products... Read more

21 May 2018

Thai Economy

1Q18 GDP is likely to register the highest rate of 2018 Growth in the remainder of the year is expected to top 4.0 %

The Thai economy in 1Q18 rose to a record 5-year high at 4.8 percent YoY, driven by booming export and tourism sectors. At the same time, housing spending began to show positive signs, picking up momentum from the previous quarter. Additionally, agricultural production has dramatically increased, be... Read more

15 May 2018

Thai Economy

Digital Asset Law Aimed at Protecting Retail Investors and Promoting Financial Stability (Business Brief No.3741)

The new digital asset law is intended to supervise retail investors and promote roles, as well as responsibilities of related businesses. All sections under the law require companies selling digital token or issuing initial coin offering (ICO) to comply with the SEC rules and regulations, in... Read more

8 May 2018

Thai Economy

Under economic pressure, parents in Bangkok are expected to spend THB27.5 billion during 2018 back-to-school season(Current Issue No. 2910)

KResearch expects that parents in Greater Bangkok will spend around THB27.5 billion during the 2018 school year, up 1.9 percent YoY, showing a decrease in spending growth because the main spending items such as tuition remain unchanged. Additionally, most parents are spending cautiously on education... Read more

4 May 2018

Thai Economy

3-Month Expected KR-ECI Improves on Declining Expenses

The 3-month Expected KR-ECI increased to 46.9 in April 2018 because households expected that their expenditures (excluding debt) would decline over the next three months after the Songkran spending spree and making tuition fee payments for their children.... Read more

4 May 2018

Thai Economy

Number of Middle Eastern Tourist Arrivals to Thailand May Contract in 2018 due to Economic and Competition Factors (Current Issue No. 2909)

KResearch thus expects that the number of Middle Eastern holidaymakers to Thailand will continue to shrink during the remainder of 2018. As a result, the number of Middle Eastern tourist arrivals will reach perhaps 7.58-7.79 million in 2018, shrinking 4.2-1.4 percent, against the 5.7 percent growth ... Read more

24 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

2018 Exports Likely Grow 7% after 1Q18 Shipments hit a 7-year high of 11.3% (Business Brief No.3737)

Thailand’s merchandise exports reached USD22.363 billion for March 2018, representing a fresh record high. As a result, our 1Q18 shipments hit a 7-year high of 11.3 percent YoY. Despite a high 2017 base, the value of March exports was driven by steady economic growth seen in our trade partners, ... Read more

11 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

March KR-ECI Down on Higher Household Expenses

KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) slipped to 45.6 in March, due partly to concern toward global trade that has become ever more complex and could affect the Thai economy in any way, while there has been no new stimulus in the country. In addition, households incurred extra expenses (exc... Read more

11 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

Emerging interest in culture and history boosts domestic tourism in 1H18, while tourist receipts are set to reach THB515 billion. (Current Issue No. 2908)

In the second half of 2018, KResearch views that domestic tourism will continue to expand, thanks to the conducive domestic environment and the government’s project to promote the kingdom’s secondary destinations in 55 cities. In addition, hospitality operators including those engaging i... Read more

5 Apr 2018

Thai Economy

Songkran Festival 2018: Spending in Bangkok to Reach THB24.14 Billion (Current Issue No. 2907)

It is expected that spending by Bangkok residents during the Songkran Festival will improve in 2018, thanks to longer holidays and a better atmosphere to travel than the previous year. A poll conducted by KResearch shows that 53.0 percent of Bangkok city dwellers intent to engage in various activi... Read more

12 Mar 2018

Thai Economy

Households are Cautious about Spending in 1Q18

​ According to a survey on household economic conditions for February, views of Thai households across the country toward economic conditions and the cost of living over the next three months remained unchanged. This is reflected in the 3-month Expected KR-ECI that was static at 47.1 in F... Read more

19 Feb 2018

Thai Economy

Thai economy continues to grow in 2018 Growth of 4.0% is expected (Business Brief No.3727)

The Thai economy in 4Q17 was buoyed by high growth in exports and tourism, while household consumption started to improve compared to... Read more

9 Feb 2018

Thai Economy

Official launch of EEC: Key to Thailand’s Economic Development (Current Issue No. 2899 Full Ed.)

The National Legislative Assembly (NLA) has approved the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) bill which is expected to boost investor confidence in large-scale, long-term investments by providing private investors additional incentives, namely non-tax privileges and a speedier process for licensing, in ... Read more

9 Feb 2018

Thai Economy

2018 Chinese New Year: Bangkok Populace to Spend THB13 Billion, Up 4.3% (Current Issue No. 2898 Full Ed.)

A poll conducted by KResearch on spending by Bangkok residents of Chinese descent during the 2018 Chinese New Year shows that their purchasing power, in particular that among middle-to-high income earners has begun to improve, thanks to the recovering Thai economy. However, the current spending slug... Read more

22 Jan 2018

Thai Economy

Thai Household Debt May Fall to 77-78% of GDP in 2018 (Current Issue No. 2896)

In 3Q17, Thailand's household debt fell from 78.4 percent of GDP – as recorded in 2Q17 – to 78.3 percent of GDP, which could be the res... Read more

18 Jan 2018

Thai Economy

Economy Likely Unfazed by THB5-22 Daily Minimum Wage Hikes Nationwide (Business Brief No.3722 Full Ed.)

The National Wage Committee recently agreed to raise the daily minimum wage to THB315.97, on average, or a range of THB308-330 across the... Read more

18 Jan 2018

Thai Economy

Economy Likely Unfazed by THB5-22 Daily Minimum Wage Hikes Nationwide (Business Brief No.3722)

The National Wage Committee recently agreed to raise the daily minimum wage to THB315.97, on average, or a range of THB308-330 across the country, effective April 1, 2018. The new rates vary by province and are split into seven rates, versus the four rates seen in recent years, because a set of new ... Read more