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Economic Analysis

15 May 2023

Thai Economy

Thai economy grew 2.7% YoY in 1Q23 as expected (Business Brief No.4002 Full Ed.)

Tourism will continue to be a key economic driver ahead despite the risk of global economic slowdown and uncertainty towards the formation of a new Thai government. KResearch maintains its growth forecast for the Thai economy in 2023 at 3.7%. ... Read more

15 May 2023

Thai Economy

Short- to medium-term economic challenges await the new government (Business Brief No.4003)

Implementation of new economic policies promoted in election campaigns would have positive short-term impact on GDP growth, while leading to the challenge of an increased fiscal burden.... Read more

11 Apr 2023

Thai Economy

Fiscal measure via funds transfer (Business Brief No.3998)

Fiscal measure via funds transfer... Read more

10 Apr 2023

Thai Economy

KR-ECI fell in March 2023; Thai households were more concerned about their debt burden

KR-ECI fell in March 2023; Thai households were more concerned about their debt burden ... Read more

7 Apr 2023

Thai Economy

Thailand’s looming super-aged society presents a formidable challenge for business sector and new government (Current Issue No.3398 Full Ed.)

Thailand’s looming super-aged society presents a formidable challenge for business sector and new government... Read more

30 Mar 2023

Thai Economy

Thai exports in 2023 may see a deeper contraction of 1.2 percent, affected by the global economic slowdown (Business Brief No.3996 Full Ed.)

Thai exports in 2023 may see a deeper contraction of 1.2 percent, affected by the global economic slowdown... Read more

2 Mar 2023

Thai Economy

Thai exports contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January 2023, by 4.5 percent YoY, due to ongoing pressure from the global economic slowdown (Business Brief No.3993)

Thai exports contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January 2023, by 4.5 percent YoY, due to ongoing pressure from the global economic slowdown ... Read more

20 Feb 2023

Thai Economy

Thai economy grew less than expected in 4Q22. KResearch, however, maintains our 2023 growth forecast for the Thai economy at 3.7% (Business Brief No.3992)

Thai economy grew less than expected in 4Q22. KResearch, however, maintains our 2023 growth forecast for the Thai economy at 3.7%, supported chiefly by tourism even as Thai exports will likely be pressured by the slowing global economy... Read more

13 Feb 2023

Thai Economy

KR-ECI in January 2023 improved, driven by the Thai economic recovery, with Thai households’ improved perception towards income and employment

KR-ECI in January 2023 improved, driven by the Thai economic recovery, with Thai households’ improved perception towards income and employment. However, households minimized spending, such as refraining from buying luxury items and reducing energy consumption, amid high cost of living... Read more

25 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Alternatives for the business sector to consider in addressing ESG issues (Business Brief No.3990)

Alternatives for the business sector to consider in addressing ESG issues... Read more

20 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Challenges related to ESG that businesses should watch out for in 2023 (Current Issue No.3382)

In 2023, countries around the world are grappling with economic uncertainty and stagnation, which may in turn affect sustainability or ESG operations of the business sector. ... Read more

13 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Thailand’s 2023 GDP growth projected at 3.7% due to China’s reopening (Business Brief No.3986)

Around 25.5 million foreign tourists set to visit Thailand and Thai exports projected to shrink only 0.5% in 2023, thanks to China’s early reopening while global inflation may decline slower than expected ... Read more

12 Jan 2023

Thai Economy

Chinese New Year 2023: Bangkokians’ spending projected to grow for the first time in three years, amid cautious spending (Current Issue No.3381)

Based on its survey findings, KResearch views that Chinese New Year in 2023 will likely see brighter prospects compared to last year, driven by the easing of the COVID-19 situation and the “Shop Dee Mee Khuen” (shop and payback) scheme. However, consumers’ spending behavior must be adjusted to accom... Read more

27 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

Thai exports projected to shrink at 1.5% in 2023 amid weak demand in trade partners and declining global commodity prices (Business Brief No.3985)

Thailand’s export growth has slowed down substantially during 2H22 due to a number of factors. These include the high base of 2H21 and a noticeable weakness in demand seen in various export markets. As a result, Thai shipments contracted for the second consecutive month in November 2022 by 6.0 perce... Read more

23 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

The US preliminarily determines that Thai solar cells are circumventing AD/CVD measures…Short-term, limited impact on Thai exports amid looming competition with South Korea (Current Issue No.3376)

The US Department of Commerce announced the results of its preliminary investigation, finding that some Chinese manufacturers had established production bases in four ASEAN countries, including Thailand, in order to circumvent US anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) measures. If fin... Read more

22 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkok residents resume New Year 2023 celebrations, with spending projected to reach THB30.9 billion (Current Issue No.3375)

Due to the fragile recovery seen in income and the high cost of living, consumers continue to be cautious about their spending. However, most of them have resumed outdoor activities, including travelling as COVID-19 has begun to ease. They have also organized celebrations during various festivities ... Read more

19 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch revises Thailand 2023 GDP forecast to 3.2 percent amid global economic recession while China may reopen relatively soon, though developments merit close watch (Press Conference 19 December 2022)

KResearch revises Thailand 2023 GDP forecast to 3.2 percent amid global economic recession while China may reopen relatively soon, though developments merit close watch (Press Conference 19 December 2022)... Read more

9 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI hit 14-month high in November 2022, but remained below pre-COVID-19 levels. Most households have year-end gathering plans in place

KR-ECI hit 14-month high in November 2022, but remained below pre-COVID-19 levels. Most households have year-end gathering plans in place ... Read more

1 Dec 2022

Thai Economy

NCB’s data show that micro and super micro businesses remain fragile despite economic recovery (Current Issue No.3367)

NCB’s data show that micro and super micro businesses remain fragile despite economic recovery... Read more

11 Nov 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI remained static in October. Households were still concerned about expenses, income and, employment, plus future savings due to the impact of flooding in many provinces

KR-ECI remained static in October. Households were still concerned about expenses, income and, employment, plus future savings due to the impact of flooding in many provinces ... Read more

26 Oct 2022

Thai Economy

Public construction investment to grow in 2022-2023 bolstered by megaprojects, but close attention must be paid to several risk factors (Current Issue No.3353)

Public construction investment to grow in 2022-2023 bolstered by megaprojects, but close attention must be paid to several risk factors ... Read more

11 Oct 2022

Thai Economy

September KR-ECI remained static from the previous month. Flooding presents risk to household income and spending

September KR-ECI remained static from the previous month. Flooding presents risk to household income and spending ... Read more

28 Sep 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch maintains GDP growth projection for 2022 at 2.9 percent and a projected range of 3.2-4.2 percent for 2023; hopes pinned on tourism to mitigate impacts of economic recession among Thailand’s partners (Press Conference 28 September 2022)

KResearch maintains GDP growth projection for 2022 at 2.9 percent and a projected range of 3.2-4.2 percent for 2023; hopes pinned on tourism to mitigate impacts of economic recession among Thailand’s partners ... Read more

21 Sep 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkokians’ spending on Kin Jae to amount to THB 3.2 billion, with reduced number of days of participation and meals consumed, amid rising prices of vegetarian food (Current Issue No.3346)

Due to rising vegetarian food prices in line with higher production costs, and floods damaging agricultural crops that are the main ingredients of vegetarian food, especially vegetables and tofu which typically see price hikes during the Kin Jae festival, the number of Bangkok residents participatin... Read more

7 Sep 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI recovered for two straight months in August 2022, supported by higher employment and the fact that prices of several products began to increase at a slower rate from the previous month

KR-ECI recovered for two straight months in August 2022, supported by higher employment and the fact that prices of several products began to increase at a slower rate from the previous month... Read more

31 Aug 2022

Thai Economy

The first minimum wage hike in two years, under different economic conditions… cost pass-through by business operators to remain limited in 2022 (Current Issue No.3342)

The tripartite national wage committee has resolved to raise the minimum wage rates for the year 2022, which will be proposed for the Cabinet’s approval to take effect on October 1, 2022. There are nine new minimum wage levels. The lowest rate is THB 328, and the highest is THB 354 (the current rate... Read more

10 Aug 2022

Thai Economy

Households begin adjusting their spending behavior as most of them view that product prices will remain high for at least another year. The KR-ECI for July 2022 improved from its lowest-ever level following a slight drop in oil prices over the past month.

The KR-ECI and 3-month Expected KR-ECI in July 2022 improved to 32.5 and 34.0, from their lowest-ever levels at 30.8 and 32.9 reported for June 2022, due to energy prices that were slightly lower than June, albeit remaining high. Additionally, further relaxation of Thailand’s entry restrictions has ... Read more

7 Jul 2022

Thai Economy

The KR-ECI fell to its lowest-ever level. Although the COVID-19 transition from pandemic to endemic will partly support employment, rising product prices, as reflected by the inflation rate which hit a 14-year high, will continue to pressure the KR-ECI.

The KR-ECI fell to its lowest-ever level. Although the COVID-19 transition from pandemic to endemic will partly support employment, rising product prices, as reflected by the inflation rate which hit a 14-year high, will continue to pressure the KR-ECI. ... Read more

1 Jul 2022

Thai Economy

25th Anniversary of the “Tom Yun Kung” crisis: Current economic situation may not repeat the past (Current Issue No.3330)

July 2, 2022 marks the 25th year after Thailand announced the floating of the Baht in 1997. The decision made at that time was an important turning point in Thailand’s exchange rate regime. Looking into 2022, the Baht is projected to soften in line with other Asian currencies 2022 due to the impact ... Read more

28 Jun 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch upgrades GDP growth forecast to 2.9 percent while Thailand is exposed to risk of tightening food supply (Press Conference 28 June 2022)

KResearch upgrades GDP growth forecast to 2.9 percent while Thailand is exposed to risk of tightening food supply... Read more

9 Jun 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI fell for the third consecutive month in May as product prices continued to increase while several government relief measures gradually expired

KR-ECI fell for the third consecutive month in May as product prices continued to increase while several government relief measures gradually expired ... Read more

10 May 2022

Thai Economy

New school year 2022: Education expenses set to rise 2.0 percent, with estimated value of THB 26.90 billion (Current Issue No.3324)

As the COVID-19 situation eases, students will be returning to study onsite per normal circumstances, with schools set to reopen on May 17. Generally, at this time of year, parents must assume the burden of their children’s education expenses. While the prices of energy and various goods have risen ... Read more

10 May 2022

Thai Economy

April KR-ECI has remained low for two straight months amid elevated goods prices. Economic and living conditions of households are still fragile after the government scrapped subsidies for several necessities such as fuels and cooking gas

April KR-ECI has remained low for two straight months amid elevated goods prices. Economic and living conditions of households are still fragile after the government scrapped subsidies for several necessities such as fuels and cooking gas ... Read more

11 Apr 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI declined in March as households were still concerned about rising product costs

KR-ECI declined in March as households were still concerned about rising product costs... Read more

8 Apr 2022

Thai Economy

Songkran 2022: Price promotion campaigns and changes in behavior limits growth of tourism spending (Current Issue No.3321)

Every year, the Songkran festival is a time when Thais return to their home provinces to celebrate the Thai New Year with their families, while others go on day trips or overnight stays.... Read more

30 Mar 2022

Thai Economy

High cost of living prompts Bangkok residents to cut spending during Songkran Festival in 2022 (Current Issue No.3317)

KResearch is of the view that spending by Bangkok residents during the upcoming Songkran Festival 2022 will reach THB23.4 billion, a decline of 2.5 percent YoY, as they intend to spend less on all activities due to the rising cost of living, driven by inflation. Most of the Bangkok city dwellers wil... Read more

25 Mar 2022

Thai Economy

KResearch downgrades GDP growth forecast to 2.5 percent due to impacts from Russia-Ukraine crisis that has sent oil and food prices soaring (Press Conference 25 March 2022)

KResearch downgrades GDP growth forecast to 2.5 percent due to impacts from Russia-Ukraine crisis that has sent oil and food prices soaring ... Read more

10 Feb 2022

Thai Economy

Prices of goods continue to rise, while incomes decline – putting pressure on KR-ECI, which fell to a historic low in January 2022

Prices of goods continue to rise, while incomes decline – putting pressure on KR-ECI, which fell to a historic low in January 2022... Read more

24 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Chinese New Year 2022: Spending expected to stall as Bangkokians focus on budget control amid surging product prices (Current Issue No.3303)

KResearch views that the gradual rise in product prices and living costs will continue to pressure Bangkokians’ spending during the Chinese New Year Festival in 2022. While the Omicron outbreak may have generated concern among consumers, some Bangkok residents of Chinese descent still plan to celebr... Read more

18 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Bangkok residents adjust spending behavior to cope with rising cost of living (Current Issue No.3302)

The rise in living costs, whether it is in food prices, electricity bills or commuting expenses, has affected and generated much anxiety among Bangkok residents, particularly low-income earners who make less than THB15,000 a month, the worst-affected income group in the capital. In general, people w... Read more

13 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

Government’s Additional Borrowing during 2022-2023 May Affect Liquidity, but Still Manageable (Business Brief No.3962)

It is likely that the budget deficit during 2022-2023 will continue to rise higher than pre-pandemic levels, and this may in turn affect the government’s borrowing plans in 2022. KResearch expects that outstanding public debt (based on the calendar year) may approach THB9.90 trillion in 2022, an inc... Read more

12 Jan 2022

Thai Economy

KR-ECI declines for the third consecutive month in December 2021 due to concerns over rising cost of living

For December 2021, KR-ECI continues to reflect concerns over the rising cost of living, particularly prices of food and beverages. During the recent New Year holiday, households were still worried about increasing expenses. As a result, December’s KR-ECI dropped to 33.9 percent from 34.7 percent in ... Read more