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10 Jan 2025

Thai Economy

Economic, Business and Banking Outlook 2025 (Business Brief No.4116 Full Ed.)

คะแนนเฉลี่ย
  • Thailand’s economy in 2025 is expected to grow slightly slower than in 2024, supported by tourism while exports decline. This outlook comes amid risks from the renewed trade war, China’s economic slowdown, and Thailand’s subdued manufacturing sector.
  • The new round of trade wars is expected to have a net negative impact on Thailand’s economy, posing a significant risk to the country’s export outlook in 2025. Thailand is among the 15 countries having the largest trade deficits with the US, making it vulnerable to US import tariff hikes. This would have both direct effects — through reduced exports to the US — and indirect effects, given heightened competition with Chinese goods in both domestic and export markets.
  • 2025 will be another turbulent year for businesses. In addition to the effects of the trade war, certain government measures may increase costs, while persistent structural issues will hinder any significant improvement in the overall business environment compared to the previous year. Thailand’s industries are expected to recover unevenly, with a continued decline in the number of small and medium-sized manufacturers.
  • Furthermore, the loan growth of domestically registered commercial banks is expected to remain low in 2025, in line with various risk factors weighing on the country’s overall economic recovery prospects.

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Thai Economy