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31 Mar 2025

Thai Economy

Economic losses from the earthquake initially estimated at no less than THB 20 billion (Current Issue No.3571)

คะแนนเฉลี่ย
  • In the aftermath of the earthquake on March 28, 2025, KResearch estimates that initial losses to the Thai economy may amount to no less than THB 20 billion, or a 0.06-percent reduction of GDP. The primary factors include disruptions or postponements of economic activities, including a potential decline in purchasing power, as businesses and households must divert their cash flow/income to assess damages and repair buildings. However, if structural damages to buildings, assets, subsidence/vibrations of some building structures, as well as future repair costs and insurance claims are included, the overall impact could be even greater.
  • While the need for repairs and temporary housing is expected to benefit the construction and building material sectors, plus low-rise accommodations, the adverse effects from the earthquake may hurt or delay sales and ownership transfers of some condominium projects in Bangkok. Additionally, there is a short-term risk seen in Thailand’s inbound tourism market in terms of confidence towards traveling and seeking accommodation in Bangkok where most hotels are high-rise buildings.
  • For commercial banks, financial relief measures are expected to help partially stabilize overall loan portfolios. However, key concerns going forward may include: 1) asset quality, particularly in the property, construction, and housing loan sectors; 2) success of bond redemptions by affected businesses in the remaining months of this year; and 3) the impact of potential domestic policy rate cuts if Thailand’s economic slowdown becomes more pronounced, which could further pressure the banking system’s net interest income.

Thai Economy