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15 May 2017

Thai Economy

High 1Q17 GDP Growth on Exports and Consumption (Business Brief No.3678 Full Ed.)

High growth in agricultural and export sectors, as well as household consumption, helped bolster Thailand's 1Q17 GDP to achieve good 3.3 percent growth amid subdued private investment.

During 1H17, it is expected that the Thai economy will advance around 3.2 percent, thanks to steady export growth and public spending that continues to be Thailand's main growth engine. For now, the threat of US trade protectionism remains unclear and this will likely inhibit private investment until the possible effects of that are better known.

KResearch maintains our cautious view towards the economic outlook in 2017; therefore, we keep our growth forecast for Thailand's GDP in 2017 at 3.3 percent, pending changes in our export performance going forward.

However, if our international shipments can maintain favorable momentum, especially in volume, this would boost our 2017 export value over our current projection of 2 percent growth YoY. Thus, Thai 2017 economic growth may lean toward the high side of our forecast at 3.0-3.6 percent.

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Thai Economy