Thailand reported lower-than expected GDP growth in 3Q14 at 0.6 percent YoY, up slightly over the 0.4 percent YoY pace reported for 2Q14. Although private consumption and investment grew 2.2 percent YoY and 3.9 percent YoY, respectively, thanks to a more stable political setting here, our economic recovery was chiefly inhibited by disappointing export and tourism performance as seen in the 15.4 percent YoY contraction in net export and service value.
As a result, the Thai economy for 2014 may expand below 1.6 percent YoY, as forecast by KResearch. However, positive signs emerging from higher private spending should support domestic demand during 4Q14 to grow over the previous quarter.
In addition, if there are concrete results from government stimuli and expedited budgetary disbursements, it is expected that Thailand's 4Q14 GDP growth may lean toward 4.7 percent YoY, thus our full-year economic performance would not be much lower than our current projection.