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1 Nov 2012

Thai Economy

September Indicators Imply Lower than Expected GDP Growth in 3Q12 (Business Brief No.3371 Full Ed.)

Based on the economic indicators in September 2012, the sectors closely linked with domestic spending were in stark contrast to the export and manufacturing sectors that are being clouded by fragile recoveries in our trade partners. However, KResearch has assessed that some positive signs abroad elicit the hope that the worst for our manufacturing sector may now be behind us, as well as in many Asian countries, while signs of stability should appear in coming months.
As for the Thai economic performance in 3Q12, we at KResearch have assessed that growth momentum across many sectors had slowed, e.g., exports (down 2.4 percent QoQ), industrial production (down 2.4 percent QoQ), private consumption, (up marginally at only 0.2 percent QoQ) and private investment (down 2.3 percent QoQ).

Amid the sluggish global economy and expiration of Thai post-flood stimuli, it is possible that our 3Q12 economy may have grown at the rate lower than what was projected by KResearch, i.e., 3.9 percent YoY, which would be considerably lower than the 4.2 percent YoY growth reported for 2Q12. Given this, our economic performance will now hinge on economic conditions abroad, plus the continuity of our government policies toward sustaining the economy and limiting the effect of external headwinds.

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Thai Economy