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18 Aug 2014

Thai Economy

Thai 2Q14 GDP Rebounds – Momentum May Continue on Domestic Boosts (Economic Brief No.3516 Full Ed.)

Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) mirrored greater economic stability during 2Q14, according to data announced by the Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) on August 18. That increasing stability has corresponded with improved political sentiment, boosting the GDP to 0.9 percent growth QoQ, s.a., during 2Q14, and 0.4 percent YoY, up from a (-)0.5-percent shrinkage during 1Q14.
As for 2014 prospects overall, we at KResearch are maintaining our forecast of 2.3 percent growth YoY, or somewhere between 1.8-2.6 percent. We believe that the currently progressing revival of our main economic engines should help shore up an outlook of the economy which is expected to rebound at least 4.0 percent YoY during 2H14, largely improving from 1H14's (-)0.1 YoY contraction.

However, we note that there is an unstable economic trend in China, as well as in several ASEAN states and the EU. When coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, our export and tourism recovery during 2H14 may be limited while these uncertainties abound.

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