Economic indicators gauging confidence within the household and business sectors have improved since the political impasse here was solved. Domestic spending has begun to pick up, as well. However, the positive effects of better domestic demand have been limited and our export recovery has remained weak.
Thus, we at KResearch have preliminarily assessed that the Thai GDP will post only moderate growth during 3Q14, leaning toward 2 percent YoY. As a result, economic growth for 2H14 may average around 3 percent YoY, bettering the contraction of 0.1 percent reported for 1H14.
There are still positive signs likely to be seen in the Thai economy during 4Q14, but the outlook for the export sector and tourism looks gloomy. Thus, we remain cautious toward our 4Q14 GDP growth forecast. However, if the government is able to implement various policies to fully support the economy this quarter, it is expected that Thailand's full-year GDP may expand perhaps 1.6 percent, per our current forecast.
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