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21 Nov 2023

Thai Economy

Thai economy grew less than expected at 1.5 percent YoY in 3Q23 KResearch revises its 2023 growth forecast for the Thai economy down to 2.5 percent (Business Brief No.4024)


        Thailand’s economic growth was less than expected at 1.5 percent YoY in 3Q23. For the first nine months, the economy improved only 1.9 percent YoY. KResearch thus downgrades its 2023 full-year growth forecast for the Thai economy to 2.5 percent, less than its prior estimate of 3.0 percent.

        Thailand’s economic outlook for the final quarter of 2023 is expected to depend mainly upon the tourism high season. Meanwhile, the government’s stimulus measures aimed at reducing the cost of living will likely continue to support domestic consumption. Thai exports should expand thanks to the low base of 2022, despite the challenge of the global economic slowdown. Nevertheless, government spending and investment continue to weigh upon the country’s economic growth, due to decreased spending on public health and the delayed budget preparation for fiscal year 2024.

        Looking into 2024, the Thai economy is expected to recover more vigorously than in 2023, driven by a continued rebound in the tourism sector, despite a predicted decline in momentum. Moreover, Thai exports are expected to return to growth next year, partly due to the base effect. Meanwhile, the government’s economic stimulus measures set to take effect in 2024 are likely to be a key factor supporting domestic consumption amid high living costs and household debt, which have been pressuring consumer purchasing power. KResearch will provide details of its 2024 economic forecast at its press conference for the fourth quarter of this year, scheduled for December 12, 2023.

Thai Economy