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19 May 2014

Thai Economy

1Q14 GDP Shows Surprising Contraction – Exports and Politics Need Watching (Business Brief No.3499 Full Ed.)

Thailand's 1Q14 GDP data released by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) shows that our economy is losing growth momentum due to the prevailing political uncertainty in the country. The 1Q14 GDP growth contracted 2.1 percent QoQ, s.a., its first shrinkage in a year, following the 0.1 percent growth recorded in 4Q13. When compared to the same period of last year, the 1Q14 GDP contracted 0.6 percent versus the 0.6 percent YoY growth reported in 4Q13.
All economic activities during 1Q14 were listless in the absence of new catalysts as a result of the protracted political strife that have diminished private and public spending, as well as tourism, while our exports have not recovered fully.

If the political impasse persists to the extent that a new government cannot be formed and there is no recovery seen in our exports over the next few months, we at KResearch may have to revise downward our growth forecast for Thailand's 2014 economy from our current forecast of 1.8 percent growth – or somewhere within 1.3-2.4 percent.

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Thai Economy