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7 Jul 2026

International Economy

Vietnam’s GDP growth surpassed expectations in 2Q26, driven by FDI and exports; growth expected to moderate in the second half amid slowing exports (Business Brief No.4278 Full Ed.)

คะแนนเฉลี่ย

•    Vietnam’s economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 8.39 percent YoY in 2Q26, supported by better-than-anticipated growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports. The surge in FDI reflects the continued relocation of manufacturing capacity to Vietnam, reinforcing its role as a key engine of economic growth. Meanwhile, exports continued to benefit from AI-related demand, particularly for technology products, electronics, and machinery. In light of the stronger first-half performance, KResearch has revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast upward from 7.0 to 7.9 percent.

•    Vietnam’s economy is expected to moderate in the second half of the year. Although demand for AI-related products is likely to remain robust, export growth is expected to slow due to a high base of comparison and demand gradually normalizing, reducing the strength of economic momentum relative to the first half of the year.
  
•    US trade policy remains a key downside risk to Vietnam’s investment and export outlook. In particular, potential investigations under Section 301 – covering issues such as forced labor, structural excess capacity, and intellectual property protection – could affect future investment and export performance. The extent of the impact will depend on the scope and implementation of any measures relative to those imposed on competing economies.

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International Economy