• Thailand’s inflation grew at a slower pace of 2.42 percent YoY, contrary to expectations of an acceleration. This reflects weaker-than-anticipated supply-side pressure on price increases. The energy price index increased at a slower rate of 13.7 percent YoY after the US and Iran signed a temporary truce agreement in mid-June.
• Although headline inflation increased less than expected, signs of a broad-based increase in merchandise prices were observed. This was reflected in the rising share of items in the inflation basket that recorded price increases since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in February 2026, while core inflation rose to its highest level in three years.
• Thailand’s headline inflation in 2026 is expected to decline and return to within the target range of 1-3 percent, compared with the current forecast of 3.1 percent. Inflation in 2H26 is projected to accelerate from 1.08 percent in 1H26, driven by several pressures, including the gradual pass-through of higher production costs from manufacturers to consumers, domestic fuel prices that are likely to decrease more slowly than global fuel prices, and the El Niño phenomenon, which could put upward pressure on agricultural commodity prices.
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