Thailand’s inflation in May 2026 increased by 2.79% YoY, lower than the previous month, due to a rapid decline in domestic fuel prices (Business Brief No.4272 Full Ed.)

•    Thailand’s headline inflation in May 2026 increased by 2.79 percent YoY, lower than expectations. However, inflationary pressures still stemmed from the supply side, particularly energy prices, which rose by 18.1 percent YoY due to the Middle East conflict.
•    KResearch maintains its forecast for Thailand’s headline inflation in 2026 at 3.1 percent. Headline inflation is expected to continue rising and remain above 3.0 percent during 3Q26 and 4Q26. Energy prices are also projected to stay elevated compared to last year, and the pass-through of producer costs to consumers is expected to increase and broaden in scope.
•    However, inflation could be lower than expected if domestic fuel prices decline faster than estimated and if El Niño proves less severe than anticipated, resulting in only modest increases in agricultural product prices. Meanwhile, the pass-through of higher costs to consumer prices is still expected to remain gradual.