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17 Oct 2024

International Economy

Environmental policies of US presidential candidates (Current Issue No.3526 Full Ed.)

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Environmental policies of US presidential candidates

•    The US presidential election is approaching, and the world is closely watching the policies of the two main candidates:  
  1. Vice President Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party, and  
  2. Former President Donald Trump from the Republican Party.  
   The outcome of the upcoming US election will shape the direction of investment to achieve the  US net-zero target,  which remains uncertain depending on the candidates' policies. Key measures that could affect US investment is the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including potential changes to subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Additionally, the US-China trade war over critical minerals may intensify because China now dominates the global supply.

•    In the future, lithium is likely to be at the center of the trade and climate tech wars. China is positioning itself as a global leader in the production of key minerals, drawing attention from the US. In recent years, following the trade war, Chinese companies have invested heavily in mining businesses in Argentina, which may lead the US to pay close attention to mineral production companies in South America.

•    The related impact on Thai exports remains limited, although there could be indirect effects from the trade war. Compared to China, the United States imports a smaller overall value of goods from Thailand under Section 301 tariff adjustments, with the exception of solar panels, which are currently subject to anti-dumping investigations. However, Thailand could face indirect effects, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. The European Union's temporary tariff hikes on EVs could force China to seek alternative markets, and Thailand is currently the top import source of China’s EVs in Asia.

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International Economy