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12 Jun 2011

K-Econ Analysis

Balance of Trade

คะแนนเฉลี่ย


- The balance of trade is the difference between the value of imports and the value of exports. A positive balance, or a trade surplus, brings income into the country, strengthening its international asset position and building confidence in the overall national economy.

- Following the 1997 economic crisis, Thailand enjoyed a large trade surplus every year until 2005 when a 40-percent increase in the price of oil over 2004 combined with a Thai baht (THB) to US dollar (USD) exchange rate of 40.2 produced a trade deficit of 7.2 billion USD. In first-half 2008 the price of oil rose to historic highs of 140 USD/barrel (July), before falling again in the second half of the year. The indirect impacts of the US economic crisis beginning in September significantly affected Thai exports to key trading partners in the US and Europe and Thailand suffered a trade deficit of 1.44 billion USD for the year.

- Thailand achieved a trade surplus of 12.9 billion USD for 2010, down the record 18.8 billion USD in 2009. The decline was due mainly to a significant appreciation of the Thai baht in second-half 2010 curbing exports and boosting imports. Thailand enjoyed a trade surplus with the US, Hong Kong, and Australia, reflecting high demand for Thai products in these countries; deficits were suffered with Japan, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia and China among others.

- Thailand's trade surplus over the first five months of 2011 came to 2.2 billion USD, down from the same period of 2010, due mainly to price pressures, especially for oil. Oil prices surged to two-year highs in February and remained high through the first half of this year. On the other hand, exports are likely to pick up over the second half-year, thanks to relief from shortages of automotive parts from Japan and to an easing of oil prices. A trade surplus of 1.8-3.8 billion USD is likely for all of 2011.

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K-Econ Analysis