In the first 9 months of 2007, Thai exports had a total value of USD110,597.9 million and had grown16.1 percent, similar to the 16.0 percent growth performance of last year. If quarter results are considered, exports as of the end of July had grown 6.3 percent y-o-y, which was lower than the export growth for the first 6 months of 2007. In August and September, exports rose again by 17.9 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively. So far, three key Thai export categories that have grown well are computers, automobiles and parts, plus electronic integrated circuits. Other exports that have also grown healthily were gems and jewelry, steel, machinery, air-conditioners and electrical appliances, while exports of rubber, fuel oil, TVs, radios and garments were falling.
Thailand's exports over the first 9 months showed handsome growth to many countries, including India, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Australia, some EU countries, China and Vietnam. Also, there are now more emerging export markets to sell to, as well as countries where Thailand has only a small import/export trade presence like the Middle East countries, especially in such commodities as sugar, cosmetics, soap, skin care products, etc. Meanwhile, exports to key trade partners like Japan and the USA are evidently decelerating. Risk factors that are likely to affect exports in the future are 1.), the Baht's value and the US economy; 2.), economic slowdowns in countries that are Thailand's primary export markets; 3.), Unrest in Burma; and 4.), oil prices. Meanwhile, supportive factors include the growth in new markets and Thailand's trade agreements.
The Baht's appreciation has affected the prices of exports in USD making them more expensive and thus impacting the price competitiveness of Thai goods. The deceleration of the US economy – which is Thailand's most important export market – due to the sub-prime mortgage problem, together with the expiration of GSP privileges that Thailand used to get on some types of exports, have lowered Thailand's export volume. The impact of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis will also likely reduce the economic growth of other countries next year, too, and may further decelerate Thailand's exports to Japan and the EU. The civil unrest in Burma will affect border trade between us and changes will depend on the status of that problem at any given time and the level of violence. It is expected that Thai exports will slow at the end of the year or until the situation improves. The higher oil prices over the rest of this year will increase costs to industry in both production and transportation.
In countries that still have high economic growth such as China, India and Vietnam, rising consumer demand and purchasing power will enable Thailand to export more products to those countries. In addition, there are other new markets that are showing rapid growth, such as the UAE, Middle-Eastern countries, Iran, Indonesia, Russia, Eastern Europe (such as Czechoslovakia, Poland and Hungary), Latin America (such as Mexico and Brazil) and some African countries. Besides, trade agreements will benefit Thai exports to these counterparts.
With the above mentioned factors, KResearch projects that Thai exports this year will grow by 14-15 percent, which would be higher than the goal set by the Department of Export Promotion, Ministry of Commerce. The trend for exports in 2008 will depend on numerous factors such as the economies of trade partners and fluctuations in oil prices. Export growth in 2008 will likely be not over 10 percent. Meanwhile, the future of Thai exports will depend on our competitiveness in the cost and quality of Thai products in the world arena.
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