China's contracting imports and exports in November 2008 indicated an increasing impact from the global economic crisis on China's internal economy, which is weakening in both consumption and investment. This signals an increasing risk of economic slowdown in the near term. The same situation of export contraction has been seen in many countries across Asia, including Taiwan, South Korea and the Philippines. It is expected that the Chinese economy in 4Q08 will slow to 8 percent growth, representing decelerated growth for the sixth consecutive quarter, against the 9 percent growth in 3Q08. This leads to a forecast that China's economy for all of 2008 will show low growth at 9.4 percent, which is the lowest growth in 5 years, against the growth of 11.9 percent in 2007.
To help spur their economy, the Chinese authorities have decided to implement fiscal policies that include injecting USD586 billion into the economic system for 2 years, until 2010. They have also added monetary policy efforts by slashing their policy interest rate heavily last month (November 2008). It is expected that the Chinese government will continuously introduce economic stimuli to maintain the country's economic growth and ease unemployment, particularly in export dependent sectors that are facing problems resulting in more business closures that may exacerbate the unemployment problem. They have also introduced real estate business stimuli because of deceleration in property sales resulting in falling real estate prices in China for the 3rd month as of October 2008. The easing monetary policy and effective fiscal measure by the Chinese authorities is expected to help relieve China's economic deceleration. China's economy in 2009 is expected to grow 7.5-8.5 percent.
China's economic downturn has affected the exports of other countries into China accordingly. For example, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan have all been seeing export contractions to China over the past two months. In addition, Thai exports have been hit hard by this problem for three consecutive months since August 2008. Thai exports to China in August-October showed low growth of 1.4, 6.1 and 4.5 percent over those months. It is expected that Thai exports to China will continue to slow with growth of 1.0-6.0 percent. Thai exports affected by this problem include primary raw materials, intermediate goods and capital goods, such as plastic pellets, chemical products, integrated circuits, computers+equipment and parts, rubber products and refined oil, which are considered products for the industrial sector have become sluggish and are likely to remain so until the middle of 2009.
Enter the code from the poll
Annotation
This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. Trustworthy, but the company can not authenticate. reliability The information may be changed at any time without prior notice. Data users need to be careful about the use of information. The Company will not be liable to any user or person for any damages arising from such use. The information in this report does not constitute an offer. Or advice on business decisions Anyhow.