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17 Feb 2009

Real Estate and Construction

Home Building, 2009: Awaiting Details of Tax Incentives (Business Brief No. 2434)

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KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) has undertaken forecasts on housing completions, focusing primarily on custom-built homes in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) in 2009 under two scenarios. In the base case, despite the government's implementation of economic measures to restore the confidence of the private sector and consumers, plus declining interest rates and stable prices for building materials, weak consumer demand and financial institutions' stricter loan approvals may prove to be negative factors. Therefore, custom-built homes in BMR in 2009 are projected to contract 13.6 percent YoY. In the worst-case, if the domestic political situation worsens, consumer confidence may erode further, especially toward economic prospects and their income security, which may delay potential homebuilding. Worse, the deepening global crisis could hinder Thai economic recovery. In this case, custom-built homes in BMR may contract 18.2 percent YoY.

It is expected that 2009 will be a very challenging year for the home building industry amid this economic downturn. More scrutiny is needed on the details of the tax incentives offered to real estate business to see if they will help revive home construction. Positive factors may include decreases in building material prices, which may hasten consumers with access to funding to go ahead with their homebuilding plans. For homebuilders, however, in-depth marketing research may be needed to provide clues for appropriate marketing strategies. Focus may be on new home designs to match individual tastes, new market penetration such as offering home remodeling services and quality control of construction. These days, customers become savvy when it comes to home building, i.e., they have gained more information about home designs, durability and prices of building materials from their friends, websites or home builders' advice. Professional integrity is also of paramount importance because it can improve builders' image in the eyes of customers. This will eventually help them maintain existing customers and increase their market share.

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Real Estate and Construction