The latest report released by the Ministry of Commerce showed that Thailand's export value in August 2009 increased to USD13,281 million, beating theUSD12,908 million in July. A comparison YoY also showed that the contraction in exports was in fact decelerating at (-)18.4 percent, less severe than the 25.7 percent contraction in July.
Without seasonal adjustment, recent export growth MoM was decelerating from the growth record of more than 3 percent in June-July and the monthly growth record of August of only 0.5 percent. Moreover, the rather healthy export value in this month was attributable to the substantial increase in gold exports of over 1,451 percent.
However, the export value without gold contracted 20.0 percent YoY from the 24.5 percent shrinkage in July. The ebbing MoM record, in fact, reflected unsteady growth and implied that Thailand's exports might not recover as rapidly as hoped. It is possible that exports will improve due to the low base effect of last year and turn positive in 4Q09.
Goods that improved this month included electrical appliances and electronics, followed by steel, chemical and rubber products. These exports are improving mainly due to China's accelerating imports for the first time in 10 months at 1.2 percent YoY. However, exports to the G-3 markets contracted more.
Overall, KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) projects that Thailand's exports in 2009 may contract 14.5-17.5 percent by the year-end, falling from the growth record of 15.5 percent in 2008.
The trend will of course vary according to the global economic recovery, particularly when the effects of national economic stimulus measures globally gradually subside. Other notable points that may affect exports will be the trend of the Baht and any further appreciation, plus the liquidity of exporters, our labor market at present (where some industries have received more orders, but cannot rehire employees back in time to support those orders). Meanwhile, trade measures enforced among importing countries should be monitored very closely. For instance, trade measures between the USA and China may lead to trade retaliation against each other, which may hamper global trade and the world economic recovery.
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