The Thai shrimp industry in 2010 should see an improvement in line with better economic conditions and higher purchasing power. Demand for shrimp products is thus likely to increase. Shrimp production in 2010 is expected to be close to this year's volume. Meanwhile, exports of shrimp products may continue to grow into next year, albeit at a more moderate rate due to intense competition in the global market and gradual economic rebounds in major shrimp importing countries. In 2009, shipments of shrimp products are estimated to increase to USD1.37 billion YoY, a rise of 5 percent. In 2010, the export value of shrimp products may reach USD1.5 billion, increasing 9.5 percent YoY, thanks to the global turnaround.
Given an expected rising demand for shrimp products, shrimp prices in 2010 may climb around 10 percent to an average of nearly THB190/kilogram. The Thai government will likely not have to intervene into the market via their price guarantee or brokerage programs, as seen in 2007-2008.
Close attention should be paid to supply volatility due to diseases and adverse weather conditions that may affect our competitiveness, and thus shrimp prices. Other points needing a closer watch include the control of production costs – especially for animal feed – to maintain our competitiveness, plus negotiations on AD tariffs imposed on our shrimp products by the US, and efforts to remove Thailand from the list of countries using forced child labor in processing farmed shrimp, which has been used as grounds for protectionist trade measures among shrimp-importing countries.
In addition, a focus should be on social accountability, especially on issues related to the treatment of workers and working conditions at shrimp farms, as well as on environmentally-friendly shrimp production to help reduce global warming. Other issues include shrimp quality, sanitation and hygienic standards, as well as the impacts of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) agreement, where some exporting countries may take advantage of relaxed rules of origin to export low-quality shrimp products via Thailand, which may tarnish our reputation over the long-term.
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