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28 Oct 2010

Agriculture

Impact of Flooding on Agricultural Sector, 2010 (Business Brief No.2970)

The most disastrous and extensive flooding this year has greatly damaged Thailand's agricultural sector. It has been estimated that over 30 provinces have been submerged in flood waters, while many others are at imminent risk, especially those located along the Chao Phraya River, including Chai Nat, Lop Buri, Ang Thong, Suphan Buri, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi and Bangkok, because the run-off from north will hit the central plains before flowing out to the Gulf of Thailand at Samut Prakan. Northeastern provinces along the Moon and Chi rivers are also bracing for floodwaters running down from Nakhon Ratchasima and Chaiyaphum to the Mekong River at Ubon Ratchathani.

Given the damage to our farming sector caused by drought in 3Q10, then being compounded by flooding in 4Q10, KResearch has assessed that preliminary agricultural losses from natural disasters this year will amount to about THB3-6 billion. Although that figure would account for only about 0.2-0.5 percent of the farming sector GDP in 2010, the impact on this sector in 4Q10 will be considerable. Given this, it is expected that agricultural sector performance in 4Q10 may decline by 0.7-1.4 percent (based on current prices) to 31.4-32.1 percent growth YoY, which would be lower that our previous forecast of a 32.8 percent gain.

Agriculture