Thai exports in November 2010 reached USD17.699 billion, an increase of 28.5 percent YoY, which was higher than the growth of 15.7 percent in October. It could be attributed partly to shipments of gold that expanded around 216 percent in November.Excluding gold, our exports still showed quite good performance. Meanwhile, imports totaled USD17.292 billion, rising 35.3 percent YoY, beating the 13.5-percent growth in October. As a result, our trade surplus dropped to USD408 million, from the USD2.322 billion of October.
During 11M10, the overall exports grew 29.2 percent, while imports rose 39.3 percent, thus putting our trade balance at a surplus of USD11.875 billion. The Ministry of Commerce therefore forecasts that our full-year exports for 2010 may reach 26-28 percent growth, and also set the 2011 export growth target at 10 percent.
KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) views that Thailand will likely show a promising export trend, as evidenced from the better-than-expected performance in November, despite the global slowdown and sharp appreciation of the Baht. This reflects the flexibility of Thai exporters in coping well with difficulties. If that adjustment process continues, it will be a major step toward long-term improvement in our production and competitiveness.
On the external front, the US economy – the world's most important consumer market – has started to show a healthier recovery. A brighter US economy will not only bode well for our exports, but would help support the US Dollar. This may help prevent the Baht from appreciating unabated, and thus would ease exporters' forex problems. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy – the world's second largest economy and Thailand's largest export destination – is still recording high performance. If it does not overheat – thereby prompting the Chinese authorities to adopt further tightening measures – China is expected to remain Asia's major growth engine.
Nonetheless, KResearch maintains our 2011 export growth projection at 6.0-10.0 percent, down from 27.0 percent in 2010 due to a high base from this year. In KResearch's view, slower growth of exports next year would then be attributable largely to the high base of this year, though the value of exports in 2011 may top USD200 billion for the first time. Meanwhile, our exports should resume bright prospects in 2012 amid higher investment for expanded production in key industries. Among the key exports likely to show high growth (around 10 percent) would be automobiles and parts thereof, electrical and electronic appliances, petrochemicals, rubber and rubber products, chilled and frozen shrimp, canned and processed seafood, etc.
It is of note that our export structure has been changing. Automotive exports have become a major contributor to our overall exports in lieu of electronic shipments. Both the Thai government and exporters should thus brace for this change, especially in the overall investment trend and industry competition through technological and human resource development, as well as improved management systems so as to ensure sustainable export growth over the long-term.
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