3Q11 exports recorded 29.0 percent growth YoY, despite slowing September growth of 19.1 percentversus 31.1 percent in August. Prior to flooding, it was expected that Thai exports might slow in 4Q11 through to 2012 due to US economic weakness and the Eurozone debt crisis. The current deluge will be another blow to shipments of industries that have been hardest hit, e.g., electronics, electrical appliance, automotive, scientific instruments and lens.
KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) estimates that Thai 4Q11 exports may contract 4.7 percent, given our base-case scenario, with a projected contraction of (-)9.1 to (-)0.2 percent. As a result, export growth during 2011 may grow around 16.7 percent, or within our latest forecast range of 15.5-17.9 percent, lower than our previous forecast of 17.0-22.0 percent. This disaster is expected to cut our 2011 exports by USD6.4-8.0 billion, equivalent to THB195-244 billion in lost revenue. KResearch
Projection of Thai Exports in 4Q11 and Full-Year 2011
Assumption
|
Export Growth (% YoY)
|
Circumstances
|
4Q11
|
2011
|
Limited impact
|
-0.2
|
17.9
|
Flooding recedes within one month: No widespread disruptions within industrial zones located in Bangkok, Samut Prakan or Chachoengsao; exporters resume production for year-end peak trade period.
|
Base case
|
-4.7
|
16.7
|
Flooding recedes within two months: Industrial zones within Bangkok face disruptions, but Samut Prakan and Chachoengsao are not affected.
|
Worst case
|
-9.1
|
15.5
|
Flooding persists until year-end: Industrial zones in certain parts of Bangkok, Chachoengsao and Samut Prakan are inundated to the extent that many facilities cannot resume production by the year-end.
|
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