It is expected that Thailand's exports to China in 4Q11 will decline substantially from the 62.8 percent YoY growth achieved in 3Q11 due to a high base from last year and lackluster demand in China – which is now more apparent than seen in the previous three quarters – amid continual slowing in the global economy. The export shortfall to China has also been exacerbated by the recent flooding in Thailand that had inhibited manufacturing output.
Given this, Thai exports to China in 2011 will probably grow only 27-30 percent, down from the 33.2 percent growth recorded in 2010. Likewise, Thai imports from China may grow at a decelerate rate to just 28.0 percent, versus the 42.3 percent seen in 2010. As a result, Thailand will continue to sustain a trade deficit with China of perhaps USD3 billion this year.
In 2012, bilateral trade between Thailand and China will face several challenges. KResearch expects that our trade (exports and imports) with China will perform at a more modest rate of perhaps 15 percent growth or less, in line with the slowing Chinese economy.
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