On December 6, 2012, the Thai Ministry of Commerce reported that November export volume expanded for the third straight month by 26.86 percent YoY. However, the export value remained little changed MoM, especially in the agricultural and agro-processing product categories, though there was a slight increase seen in industrial product exports.
Although a low 2011 base as a result of the catastrophic flooding then will help support Thai exports to statistically achieve higher growth in 4Q12, growth momentum has been weak, reflecting uncertainty in the global economy. As a result, new purchase orders in 4Q12 may not increase as hoped, meaning that the export value will be unlikely to grow much over 3Q12. Nevertheless, that momentum should be sufficient to sustain our full-year export performance at perhaps 4.0 percent growth.
Looking ahead, KResearch is of the view that Thai exports will begin to recover in early 2013, unless new risks emerge that alter our current views on the global economy. The prices of some Thai export categories will likely benefit from an upswing foreseen in commodity prices. This, coupled with a low 2012 base, leads KResearch to expect that our exports will grow 12.5 percent YoY in 2013, or within 10-15 percent.