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2 Aug 2013


Thai 2Q13 GDP Grows only 2-3 Percent amid Ebbing Exports (Business Brief No.3444 Full Ed.)

The latest economic indicators for June remained bearish, thus dampening various economic activities in 2Q13, including private consumption (-0.7 percent QoQ, s.a.), private investment (-2.7 percent QoQ, s.a.), exports (-4.1 percent QoQ, s.a.) and manufacturing production (-2.8 percent QoQ, s.a.). This slowdown was partly an adjustment from the extraordinary growth induced by previous government economic stimuli and speedy private spending, while the Thai manufacturing and export sectors remained largely uncompetitive vis-à-vis our rivals amid bleak prospects toward orders from some trade partners.
Given this, we at KResearch expect that the Thai 2Q13 GDP will moderate to 2-3 percent YoY, before resuming growth of over 5.0 percent YoY in 3Q13, given a low 2012 base and an expected gradual export recovery.

Overall for 2013, we continue to maintain our Thai economic performance projection at 4.0 percent growth YoY, or somewhere between 3.8-4.3 percent, thus being down from the 6.5 percent pace recorded in 2012.

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