Thailand's April international trade data as published by the Ministry of Commerce came out poorly, suggesting that the export recovery vis-à-vis key exports and markets remains slow, despite positive signs seen in recent months. April shipments contracted for the second consecutive month to 0.87 percent YoY, well below what KResearch and a Reuters poll of analysts had projected at 1.0 percent YoY growth and 0.5 percent YoY growth, respectively. As a result, our outward trade during 4M14 shrank 0.97 percent YoY or 2.3 percent YoY if gold shipments were excluded.
This has led KResearch to maintain a conservative view on Thai export outlook over the remainder of 2014, though we expect that they will begin to pick up gradually in 2Q14, supported by a low 2013 base and the global economic recovery, wherein prices of our agricultural exports have begun to move toward those set by rivals.
Given this, we at KResearch have decided to leave our current growth forecast for Thai exports in 2014 unchanged at 5.0 percent, or somewhere within 3.0-6.0 percent. We will monitor the situation with key items and important export markets over coming months closely, as the latest data show that some industries, e.g., electronics and TV/radio receivers, are gearing up to increase production capacities again.
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