Thai shipments to China during June signaled a better outlook, bouncing back to 3.2 percent growth YoY for the first time in a year. This rebound helped offset a contraction to (-)4.3 percent YoY during 1H14 and at the same time suggests probable expansion in our outbound trade with China during 2H14. However, there may not be any marked improvement with China later this year as the government is trying to bolster its domestic economy. Considering this, we at KResearch project that our exports to China will probably contract by (-)2.0 percent over the entirety of 2014, or be somewhere between (-)4.5 percent to 0.5 percent, with a total value of around USD26-27.4 billion.
KResearch Estimates
|
Key Economic Indicators
|
2013
|
2014f
|
|
Base-Case
|
Estimated Range
|
|
China GDP (%YoY)
|
7.7
|
7.4
|
7.0 to 7.6
|
|
Thai Exports to China
|
|
|
|
|
Growth (%YoY)
|
1.4
|
-2.0
|
-4.5 to 0.5
|
|
Value (USD million)
|
27,233
|
26,700
|
26,000-27,400
|
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Thai Ministry of Commerce; compiled by KResearch
Remarks: f denotes forecast estimates, as of July 28, 2014
China reported 7.5 percent growth YoY for 2Q14, inching up marginally over 7.4 percent YoY during 1Q14. That growth came out higher than forecasts made by most analysts who expected a number equal to that during 1Q14, thus dismissing concern over a slowdown over the remainder of 2014. Credit could be given to governmental “mini-stimulus” that intensified throughout 2Q14, lending a hand to development of the domestic economy in various dimensions.
Despite that, it will likely take some time and further boosts to strengthen the foundation of China's economic and business sectors. Looking forward, the Chinese government is eyeing less stringent monetary regulations as well as more fiscal spending. KResearch, in light of this, projects over-year growth of 7.4 percent, or perhaps ranging between 7.0-7.6 percent.
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