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29 Oct 2014


Thai Exports Face Challenges despite Recovery (Economic Brief No.3527 Full Ed.)

Thai exports and imports rose unexpectedly in September at 3.19 percent YoY and 14.4 percent YoY, respectively. However, there are still many issues that warrant close monitoring, especially the economic performances of major trade partners, e.g., China, the Eurozone and Japan, that remain lackluster for this may pressure prices of key Thai exports, e.g., agricultural produce, minerals, refined fuels and crude oil.
Meanwhile, steady contractions seen in our top exports, e.g., automobiles (incl. components & parts), rubber and integrated circuits may suggest Thai exports will be inhibited by certain challenges during 4Q14.

In 2015, although we at KResearch expect that our outward trade will revert to growth of 3.5 percent YoY, that would actually mean a moderate growth compared to our past export performance. As a result, we will have to monitor many issues next year, especially Thailand's industrial production structure that needs to be overhauled in line with global trends and heightened competition in many export categories. The prices of some agricultural produce should remain at status quo, however.

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