October exports exhibited steady recovery, up 3.97 percent YoY, representing the highest growth rate in 21 months, after expanding 3.19 percent YoY in September. The increase was driven by exports of agricultural/agro-processing products and industrial goods.
Looking ahead, although it is expected that key trade partner demand may not fully recover due to continued sluggishness in the global economy, we at KResearch are of the view that Thai exports have now bottomed out. They should revert to growth of 2.0-4.5 percent in 2015, given a low 2014 base, plus stronger demand from ASEAN – especially the CLMV – and the US, supported by economic recoveries there, as well as efforts to access new export markets. In addition, our shipments to China may resume growth next year following a steep contraction seen in 2014.