The bird flu pandemics confirmed in many countries, including China, Japan, the Netherlands, US, Canada, Egypt and Nigeria, have prompted several countries to impose import bans on chicken and related products from some of the affected nations. South Korea has banned live chickens and chilled/frozen chicken from the US. We at KResearch are of the view that such incidents will help boost Thai chicken exports during 2015 if no bird flu cases are found here.
Thailand should be able to export more chicken products to major markets, e.g., Japan and the EU, where the bird flu outbreaks may hurt their domestic chicken production, thus requiring them to import more fresh chicken products from Thailand. We should be able to increase such shipments to other countries that have erected such bans too, notably South Korea that previously suspended chicken imports from Thailand in 2003. However, the appreciating THB versus the JPY and EUR may put pressure on the value of our fresh chicken exports.
KResearch expects that the value of Thai chilled, frozen and processed chicken exports during 2015 will reach perhaps USD2.41 billion, up 4.5 percent YoY, because of a 40 percent increase projected for our fresh chicken exports on increased purchase orders from bird-flu hit countries, as well as those that have imposed chicken import bans.
In addition, it is likely that South Korea will resume fresh chicken imports from Thailand during 2H15. However, since it has been projected that the export prices of fresh and processed chicken products may decline by about 9.0 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively, the value of Thai chicken shipments may not rise much in 2015, though may be better than the 4.3 percent growth during 2014.