Thailand's January exports suffered a setback, reporting a contraction of 3.46 percent YoY, amid delayed recoveries in orders from China, Japan, the EU and ASEAN's five original member nations. The decline was also an outcome of falling commodity export prices, especially oil, e.g., petroleum products and crude oil (3.9-percent combined proportion of January exports), plus other products related to oil or affected by oil prices – directly and indirectly – such as chemical products, plastic/plastic resins, rubber/rubber products and tapioca products (16.4-percent combined proportion of total exports).
During 1Q15, KResearch has evaluated that even with the help of shipments to the US and CLMV states, which should see continued expansion, the effect would not be powerful enough to offset the contraction in exports to China, the EU, Japan and the five original ASEAN members. To cap it all off, major export prices will likely remain low throughout 1Q15, meaning the odds are that the Thai export value for 1Q15 will perhaps fall below our current forecast of a 2.0-percent contraction YoY.
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