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26 Mar 2015


February Exports Contract for Second Consecutive Month by 6.14 Percent – Recovery Likely in 2H15 (Economic Brief No.3552 Full Ed.)

As expected, the value of Thailand's outward trade in USD fell for a second straight month during February, this time by 6.14 percent YoY, further below the 3.46 percent YoY contraction reported for January, because our key export categories continued to be dampened by a slow global economic recovery and lower export prices. The combined value of five export items, e.g., crude oil, refined petroleum products, gold, rubber and rubber products, which normally account for almost 10 percent of the total export value and whose prices are sensitive to global changes, plunged by 35.2 percent YoY in February.
Shipments to key markets, with the exception of the US and Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV), all fell too, notably China by 15.1 percent, the EU by 5.6 percent, Japan by 11.7 percent and ASEAN-5 (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore) by 16.4 percent.
Given this, we at KResearch continue to assess that Thai exports will register YoY declines over the coming months before rising again towards the end of 2Q15. Nevertheless, we expect an export recovery during 2H15 that might be meager because our shipments will likely be undermined by issues continuing from last year, e.g., heightened competition, rising outputs of key agricultural produce from rivals and outdated technology in our export products that make it difficult to meet current demand in global markets.

Hence, we at KResearch remains cautious towards our export forecast over the remainder of 2015 and expect that 2015 export growth may stagnate at 0.0 percent, or stand within a range of (-)1.0 to (+) 2.0 percent.

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