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27 Aug 2015


July Exports Contracting for 7th Month – Recovery in Question(Economic Brief No.3571 Full Ed.)

July 2015 shipments continued in a downtrend, contracting 3.56 percent YoY versus a market prediction of (-)3.85 percent YoY and KResearch's (-)3.9 percent YoY assessment. This was seen as a consequence of weakening purchasing power among our trade partners. Meanwhile, export prices have waned 2.5 percent YoY, in line with prices of oil and other commodities in the global market that have not been so low in years.
Exports suffering significant declines included computers/components, plastic resin, petroleum distillates, rubber products and chemical products, among others. However, shipments improved for automobiles/equipment/parts after manufacturers put new models on assembly lines. Also doing better were gems/jewelry, electric circuit boards, metal products, air-conditioners/parts, as well as rubber (as a consequence of higher shipment volume).

Over the remainder of 2015, KResearch foresees shaky financial markets across emerging markets and volatile commodity prices on heightened risk primarily due to the chaotic world's markets and jitters over China's deteriorating economy and stock market plunges. These setbacks may affect Thailand's exports over the rest of this year. Chances are that Thai shipments may witness a contraction of 4.0 percent over the entirety of 2015, versus our previous forecast of a 1.7 percent drop.

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