Thailand's August 2015 exports continued to contract for the eighth consecutive month, down by 6.69 percent YoY, worse than an expected 3.0 percent drop. Excluding gold exports that surged exponentially by 973.7 percent YoY in August, Thai outbound shipments fell 10.5 percent YoY, the worst monthly contraction in three years.
While a recovery in passenger vehicle exports was conducive to growth in automobiles—Thailand's top export—for a second consecutive month, pick-up trucks—representing the largest share in auto exports—continued to decline as a result of introduction of new models. Other major shipments remained in negative territory on low export prices and weak demand from major destinations.
KResearch has assessed that Thailand's overall outbound exports over 2015 will likely be worse than the previous expected 4.0-percent contraction. Risks resulting from China's economic slowdown (as well as similar trends in Europe and Asia), plus a downward direction in global oil and other commodity prices are expected to obstruct a recovery in Thailand's outbound trade for many months to come. This implies that Thailand may record export contractions every month in 2015, and if so, would result in the deepest fall in our overall performance over the past six years.